ESPN ADP Comparison - Underpriced and Overpriced Players for Fantasy Baseball

March 14, 2023

Nick's ESPN fantasy baseball draft sleepers and busts to target and avoid. ADP trends identify players drafted higher or lower on ESPN compared to other sites.

Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we will look at ESPN’s respective ADP data.

Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower — being selected earlier or later — on ESPN compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't make them undraftable and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal, but it helps to stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. If you draft with our staff fantasy baseball rankings, you'll want to keep this in mind.

What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). Here, we simply raise awareness of those whose draft stock is seemingly getting raised or dropped based on nothing other than the site's default rank. ADP data is current as of March 4.

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Notable Trends on ESPN

First off, if you have the No. 1 pick in a daily moves format then you want Shohei Ohtani. You'll get Ohtani. You'll (hopefully) be thrilled with Ohtani. This isn't Yahoo. It is one Ohtani you can switch between UT and P. Enjoy.

In general, players on ESPN can expect starting pitchers to be pushed up, while hitters who carry large strikeout rates tend to be lower. This is likely due to points leagues skewing the early action, so be aware of this when creating a categories blueprint.

Typically, I’ll pick out a few names with gaps that stand out, but 2023 is pretty shocking if you absorb their aggregate ADP. Their default points league setup favors pitchers, as hitters only get one point for runs, RBI, walks, stolen bases, and total bases. They also lose a point with every strikeout.

This explains why the default draft room rank for Ronald Acuna Jr. is 44th in points lobbies compared to fifth in a rotisserie. Now, I try to focus on the standard roto formats because said standard is more reliably compared across sites/platforms compared to points. Plus, Nick Gaut is our points royalty, and between us, you’ll be a winner everywhere.

Anyway, the "Cheaper" picks section will be more conversational regarding positional trends, while the "Costly" picks section of this will highlight five specific players that you'll pay a premium for on ESPN. Please note that I'll often utilize pre-draft ranks for rotisserie leagues and sprinkle in snake-draft ADP as well. ESPN doesn't let you see roto-specific ADP for snake drafts, so "snake-draft ADP" includes point leagues. As such, I'll lean more on the pre-draft ranks for them.

Cheaper Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Again, if you really want Ronald Acuna Jr. on your squad then ESPN is your best bet, as he’s fifth in the pre-draft ranks. Otherwise, there isn’t much difference among the top players.

Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes only carry a pre-draft value of 18 and 19, a bit cheaper than demanded elsewhere. And not far above Sandy Alcantara (23) and a pitcher to be named later, so the tier gap isn’t being respected. Enjoy!

Another interesting tier trend is where the elite closers, Edwin O. Diaz and Emmanuel Clase, pop up. Their respective ESPN pre-draft ranks of 53 and 54 are roughly a full round later than the combined ADPs from other sites. (Diaz is now out for the year, which will probably push Clase and the other "bankable" save guys up a touch.)

Their snake draft ADPs are 50 and 56, respectively. I’m going to remove Fantrax from the RP average given their points-heavy lean, which widens the gap. CBS, Yahoo, RTSports, and NFBC have an average ADP of 33 for Diaz and 36 for Clase.

As you might imagine, there is a trickle-down effect for most relievers. Josh Hader is 66th in the pre-draft ESPN ranks with an ADP of 80 (Average: 50) while Devin Williams actually edges him ADP-wise at 75.

Raisel Iglesias is at 102, and both Ryan Pressly and Jordan Romano sport ADPs of 120.  If you’re battling with less-experienced drafters then you may enjoy discounts to build around.

Those fearful of whiffing on a reliable third baseman will note Alex Bregman’s 79 pre-draft slot on ESPN against an average ADP of 65 on others. Jose Ramirez is still a top-three pick. Manny Machado is inside the top-15. Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, and Nolan Arenado are all a few spots ahead of the pack on ESPN.

On its face, Bregman is the only real “value” near the top. No one wants to rely on snagging the last man in a positional tier, but the data may favor holding out for him. Of course, this gets flipped by the snake-draft ADP data with the heavy skew from points leagues. Bregman's ADP is 41, ahead of Riley (45) and Bobby Witt Jr. (47) thanks to the wild discrepancies in their strikeout rates.

The bottom line is that you should err on the side of getting your guys, but the pre-draft anchoring is a helpful tiebreak for a coin-flip scenario where you're wondering who stands the best chance at lasting until your next pick. Generally, there are going to be a lot of drafters with this mentality:

Here’s what I’ve learned from drafting early: when in doubt at the end of the 1st or top of 2nd, grab someone with 3B eligibility. It gets so ugly so fast

— DB (@derekbrooks_) March 1, 2023

Costly Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)

ESPN Pre-Draft Rank: 27
Snake ADP: 35 (RTSports: 40, NFBC: 35, Fantrax: 28, Yahoo: 38, CBS: 41, Average w/o ESPN: 36)

As stated earlier, Woodruff is pushed up rather snugly with the top aces. This does suck much of the potential value away, especially with the threat of Reynaud’s Syndrome returning. The numbness in his fingers mixed with poor luck for too many mistakes, as a 1.44 HR/9 fueled a 4.74 ERA (3.44 xFIP) over nine starts until he was placed on the injured list.

He didn’t allow a homer in his first seven starts off of the IL, naturally. His 2.38 ERA over his final 18 starts came with a 137/29 K/BB ratio over 109 ⅔ IP. Drill down to his final eight outings and you get a 68/11 K/BB in just 50 ⅔ IP. You are paying for that ceiling on ESPN.

Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI)

ESPN Pre-Draft Rank: 35
Snake ADP: 41 (NFBC: 54, Fantrax: 45, Yahoo: 56, CBS: 54, RTSports: 56, Average w/o ESPN: 53)

This is another rise I can see the rationale in. Recency bias may have Wheeler’s injury and missing a month of play in the crunchtime of August and September wedged into your brain. But his body of work remained strong. Fantasy-only folks may have missed Wheeler tossing 35 ⅔ IP with a 2.78 ERA/0.73 WHIP in the postseason as well.

Instead of Wheeler’s full season line, which stands well on its own, let’s consider the 10 earned runs surrendered in two starts prior to his IL stint. His 2022 ERA goes from 2.82 to 2.41 without those two outings. And he’d tossed 213 frames in 2021! While I’d prefer not to pay a premium on ESPN, I am down with Wheeler being my SP1. You may have to fend off enhanced competition no matter your platform due to recent news of a sweeper hitting his arsenal:

Zack Wheeler is adding a new pitch to his arsenal. Call it a sweeper, a slurve or a whirlybird. Whatever. It could make Wheeler even nastier this year. “It’s probably the best pitch in baseball if you can throw it for a strike.” He did today in Clearwater. https://t.co/skmTEJc1ze

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) March 1, 2023

Adolis Garcia (OF – TEX)

ESPN Pre-Draft Rank: 49
Snake ADP: 171 (RTSports: 51, NFBC: 55, Fantrax: 62, Yahoo: 69, CBS: 65, Average w/o ESPN: 60)

I have drafted a lot of Garcia this offseason but I’m far more comfortable around pick 60 than 50. While he made some improvements in the whiff category (31.2% K rate in ‘21, 27.9% in ‘22), that’s still a significant risk. But even as his HR/FB rate dropped from 19.6% to 15.9%, we still got 52 HR+SB in 156 games.

The 30-year-old was buried in St. Louis’ system so perhaps some will never trust an “unknown prospect” but he’s produced in two full seasons now. Texas has invested plenty in its roster so hitting in the heart of its order is plenty valuable. His Expected Draft Value is still a positive score around pick 50 so I’m okay with this, but do note the inflation!

Teoscar Hernandez (OF – SEA)

ESPN Pre-Draft Rank: 58
Snake ADP: 152 (RTSports: 61, NFBC: 67, Fantrax: 70, Yahoo: 61, CBS: 78, Average w/o ESPN: 67.4)

Hernandez had a down 2022 depending on how you view things. Many drafted him around the third round last year so hopes were high. But he was sabotaged by an early oblique injury suffered in mid-April, spending most of May getting his timing back.

His final 111 games supplied a .287/.334/.532 line with 23 home runs, 33 doubles, and five steals. That’s roughly two-thirds of a full season, and how you have felt with ~35 longballs and 200 R+RBI? Again, “costly” here just speaks to the market price but perhaps you still feel he’s worth it on ESPN.

I’m not worried about his moving teams/ballparks. If anything, working with Julio Rodriguez this offseason and emphasizing flexibility to create a swing that lets his natural power shine through could unlock another level. And through it all, he consistently mauls southpaws:

Teoscar Hernandez is slugging .711 (194 total bases in 273 ABs) against LHP since the start of 2020, tied for best in MLB.#SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/4MLYEkboXg

— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) February 22, 2023

Gunnar Henderson (3B – BAL)

ESPN Pre-Draft Rank: 65
Snake ADP: 131 (RTSports: 85, NFBC: 89, Fantrax: 92, Yahoo: 92, CBS: 68, Average w/o ESPN: 85)

This might be the result of ye olde Shiny New Toy Syndrome. Combine the volatility of a rookie with the stingy dimensions of Camden and I’m not digging the default's price bump. You can see the fear from points-leaguers over the ~25% strikeout rate despite a likely walk rate north of 10%. Unfortunately, this makes it difficult to determine where the ESPN roto market has settled on him beyond the pre-draft rank.

He has tools and provides an avenue to double-digit steals from 3B, but he also hasn’t played 100 games above Double-A. CBS ADP is usually skewed a bit by keeper/dynasty formats and favors prospects, so I’d lean closer to the ~90 average from the others.

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