RADIO
If fantasy owners share a collective weakness, it's recency bias. How many times are we going to draft a guy based on what he did last season, or even the last month of last season, without any regard to what that player did before? Mike Trout was great out of the box, but there are a million Josh Hamiltons and Nick Franklins for every player that actually meets our ridiculous expectations.
Yet, here we go again. Trea Turner leaves the board in the first round based on a little more than 300 MLB PAs, while Keon Broxton seems to be becoming that sleeper everyone hypes to the point that he's no longer sleeping. Is it prudent to avoid these guys, or can they succeed?
The answer lies in setting realistic expectations for both.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) ADP: 206.8
As of writing this, Broxton is affordable. Many experts are trying to increase his cost though, so he may not stay cheap for long. Broxton hit .242/.354/.430 with nine dingers and 23 steals in 244 PAs last year. He added eight bombs and 18 steals in 199 Triple-A PAs before reaching the Show, so 20/20 in 2017 seems realistic if he can hit the ball.
That was a massive challenge last year, as Broxton struck out 36.1 percent of the time. That's nearly double the league average! He piled up Ks in the minors too, so his contact rate could stay ugly for his entire career. Still, there is room for growth. His 14.7 percent SwStr% was terrible, but not quite 36.1 percent K% terrible. He also knows the zone, evidenced by a 22.1 percent O-Swing% and 14.8 percent BB% last season. Broxton strikes out way too often to help fantasy lineups with average, but it should improve from last year.
More concerning is the streaky nature of Broxton's power. His 30.2 percent FB% means that he needs to run HR/FB rates well above average to hit for the power many owners are expecting. He can do that, as evidenced by his 25.7 percent HR/FB last year, his above average rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event (11.1 percent), and his history of prorated 20 HR seasons in the minor leagues. He could also fail, which would result similarly to the 10 homers he hit in roughly a full season in 2015. Broxton has power potential, but it is not a guarantee without more fly balls.
His .373 BABIP is also concerning, as Broxton was a batting average drag despite it. He posted a rate above .350 at every stop in the High Minors, save one .325 figure at Double-A, hinting that his 25 percent LD% is not unrealistic to maintain. He also has plus wheels and a microscopic IFFB% (2.9 percent), so he should consistently beat the league average of .300 with relative ease.
Overall, Broxton is fine as a sleeper you can dream on. He could turn into Mike Cameron, a player who pleased fantasy owners for years with a blend of power and speed. He could also be Drew Stubbs, who enticed owners with flashes of power and speed but mostly ate into batting averages and auction budgets. Roster Broxton, but don't chase him so far that you are not willing to cut bait if necessary.
Verdict: Champ
Trea Turner (2B/OF, WAS) ADP: 13.8
Turner slashed an impressive .342/.370/.567 with 13 HR and 33 SB (six CS) at the MLB level last season. His speed is the real deal, as he posted 25 steals (two CS) at Triple-A before his callup. He runs often and his success rate is phenomenal, making 60+ bags a very realistic projection for 2017.
Steals alone probably do not justify his current price though. Turner's power potential is hampered by a 31.7 percent FB%, as you can't hit a homer with a ground ball. His 16.7 percent HR/FB also seems high considering that Turner never cracked double digit homers in the minor leagues. Add in his average 7.5 percent rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event, and Turner should not be drafted with the expectation of last year's pop.
His .388 BABIP seems primed for regression, but Turner figures to beat the league average just like Broxton can. He won't hit .387 on grounders again, but his legs make .300 possible, and even likely. A 25.2 percent LD% also seems likely to regress, but Turner's extensive history of plus-plus minor league BABIPs (.369 at Triple-A last year) may suggest a line drive swing in addition to his wheels. Don't expect .340, but Turner should hit for a solid average.
Many have criticized Turner for not walking often (4.3 percent BB%), but his eye is actually average (32.6 percent O-Swing%). Turner doesn't walk because pitchers know it's effectively a double if he does. He can also play OF, 2B, and MI, with SS eligibility likely coming in the season's first few weeks. Turner's spot at the top of the lineup makes him an elite contributor in steals, average, and runs. Draft him without expecting pop, and you will be satisfied with the results.
Verdict: Champ
