X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump: Niko Goodrum and Jose Altuve

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the prospects of utility man Niko Goodrum (Detroit Tigers) and 2B Jose Altuve (Houston Astros) in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Do they project to provide value based on current ADP?

Auctions are an unpredictable draft format by nature, and these uncertain times make them all the more so. The present author participated in an auction this past weekend and was able to purchase two noteworthy players at significant discounts.

One of those players was a $1 flier on Niko Goodrum, a player who offers an intriguing skill set for fantasy and positional versatility that adds to his value in leagues with daily transactions. The other was a $26 winning bid on Astros superstar Jose Altuve, a cheaper price than $27 Marcell Ozuna or $31 Anthony Rizzo despite Altuve clearly being a better player than either.

Inspired by these draft results, I decided to look at ADP data to determine if these players are undervalued in other leagues. The answer is yes.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Niko Goodrum (1B/2B/SS/OF, DET)

ADP: 349.8

The 28-year-old Goodrum was the definition of an adequate fantasy player in 2019, slashing .248/.322/.421 with 12 HR and 12 SB (three CS) over 472 PAs. Goodrum has speed to burn (29 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season) and has swiped as many as 35 bags in a professional campaign, so it's pretty easy to see SB upside. His power indicators aren't as impressive, but he's not the total zero that Mallex Smith is either.

Perhaps drafters are ignoring Goodrum because he hit .248 despite a .338 BABIP last season, but he has the skills required to post an elevated mark again in 2020. He combines his foot speed with above-average exit velocity on ground balls (86.8 mph), suggesting that his .291 BABIP on worm killers last season was no fluke. While his 27.8 LD% is unlikely to repeat, his 22.8% mark from 2018 and MiLB history suggest that he could be better than league average in that area as well. Goodrum's FB% is also low enough (31.5% last season) to increase his BABIP projections.

Of course, that FB% also caps Goodrum's power output. His 13.3% HR/FB in 2019 wasn't special by any means, and both his 92.5 mph average airborne exit velocity and 6.3% rate of Brls/BBE were mediocre. That said, he pulls an above-average amount of fly balls (23.3%) and projects to hit second in Detroit's lineup, a position that could help him punch above his weight in terms of runs and RBI. Owners can probably expect a 15-HR pace to go along with above-average contributions in SB and counting stats.

Goodrum struck out 29.2% of the time in 2019, but he actually has a reasonable eye (32.4% chase rate) and only a slightly higher than average SwStr% (14.4%). His K% will probably be around 25-26% in 2020, creating a few more opportunities to cause havoc on the bases. He is the perfect bench bat to plug into your lineup in case of injury or light schedules in daily formats, providing a little bit of everything at a dirt-cheap price.

Verdict: Champ (based on role, positional flexibility, legitimate upside, and price).

 

Jose Altuve (2B, HOU)

ADP: 31.6

Altuve enjoyed one of the finer seasons in his storied career in 2019, slashing .298/.353/.550 with 31 HR and six steals (five CS). The decline in steals is concerning considering that fantasy owners are looking for them now more than ever, but it may have just been a fluke. Altuve has a career success rate of approximately 77%, and last season's 28.6 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed was a three-year high. He might also be inclined to steal as revenge for all of the HBP many envision the Astros getting in 2020.

Speed aside, Altuve's power spike appears partially legitimate. While his FB% increased only marginally (32.5 FB% vs. career 30.9%), he pulled a significantly higher percentage of his fly balls (28.6% vs. 21.1% career). His 8.1% rate of Brls/BBE was also Altuve's highest in the Statcast Era, while his 92.8 mph average airborne exit velocity was a smidgeon above league-average. Decent power plays up in Minute Maid Park, so Altuve can likely produce at a 25-HR pace even if 30 is unlikely.

Some analysts are noting Altuve's increased Pull% as the reason his batting average fell below .300, but that may not be the case. While Altuve pulled more grounders last season (65.7%) than he has over his career (57.5%), he still hit .298 in 144 PAs against the shift. It's more likely that his BABIP decline (.303 against a career mark of .337) was rooted in his LD% (17.6% last year, 21.5% career), a notoriously fickle stat that generally isn't predictive of anything. The 29-year-old is also too young for an age-related decline, so a rebound back over .300 should be expected.

Altuve also brings plus plate discipline to the table (7.5 BB%, 15 K%) even if he did swing a little bit harder last year (9 SwStr% vs. 6.3% career). He's also locked in as the No. 2 hitter in Houston's potent lineup, giving him plenty of opportunities to accumulate counting stats. In short, Altuve projects to hit .300+ with 25 HR, 20 SB, and a ton of R+RBI over a full season.

Quite frankly, you're not getting comparable production from the players taken around him. Here is where Altuve ranks according to FantasyPros ADP:

There are some good players there, but Rafael Devers' breakout wasn't supported by his peripherals, Charlie Blackmon shouldn't be started outside of Coors, Javier Baez has terrible plate discipline, and Clayton Kershaw has earned an injury-prone tag. There is zero evidence that the Astros cheating scandal significantly inflated Altuve's numbers or that it won't continue in a more effective form, so take Altuve and enjoy the first-round production in the third.

Verdict: Champ (based on the ability to get an absolute stud outside of the first round)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Chase Elliott

an Easy DFS Pick at Chicago Street Course
Chris Buescher

Should Be Strong at Chicago Street Course
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Solid DFS Target After Qualifying 37th at Chicago
Michael McDowell

Has Solid Saturday at Chicago Street Course
Will Brown

an Interesting Fantasy Option at Chicago Street Course
Justin Haley

Has Strong Record at Chicago Street Course
Todd Gilliland

Could Surprise at Chicago Street Course
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Seeking Another Top 10 at Chicago Street Course
Josh Berry

Is Awful At Road Courses
Josh Bilicki

Shows Unexpected Speed at Chicago Street Course
Katherine Legge

Qualifies for Chicago Street Course on Speed
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF