ADP Champ or Chump: Mike Minor

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Texas Rangers SP Mike Minor in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Will Minor be able to replicate the successful fantasy season he put up in 2019?

How will the shortened MLB season impact the fantasy game? This question is foremost on many owners' minds, and one of the most common responses has been to value workhorse pitchers who rack up decisions more highly. Owners are encouraged to draft studs like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, but realistically you won't be able to finish your entire staff with those guys and still compete offensively.

Pundits generally recommend pivoting to pitch-to-contact types after the top guys are off the board, with Marcus Stroman the most common example in this author's estimation. The problem with this is that you don't just want innings in most fantasy formats, but good innings. A guy like Stroman doesn't offer the strikeouts you're trying to collect, and he needs help from his infield defense to boost your ratios.

Finding workhorses who contribute more than raw innings is challenging but not impossible. Mike Minor is coming off a 2019 season that saw him go 14-10 with a 3.59 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 208 1/3 IP for the Texas Rangers. His 4.60 xFIP wasn't as good, surely contributing to his 157.8 ADP on FantasyPros. That said, many of his peripherals suggest that 2020 will be similar to his 2019. Here are three reasons why Minor can help stabilize your fantasy rotation at an affordable price:

Minor's Arsenal Is Better Than You Think

As a 32-year-old with a fastball that doesn't sit 95, Minor probably isn't the first name you think of when discussing raw stuff. Of course, velocity isn't everything. Fantasy owners love high-spin fastballs because they lend themselves well to both strikeouts and harmless pop-ups. If you sort all MLB pitchers with a minimum of 1500 pitches thrown by 4-seam fastball spin rates on Baseball Savant, you get the leaderboard below:

Many of the best pitchers in the game are listed in that top-10, and Minor is at the top of the heap. In fact, Minor has been near the top of this list every season since Statcast data went public.

Minor's fastball also has the results expected of a high-spin offering. Its 9.4 SwStr% in 2019 was well above-average for a straight heater, while its 57 Zone% ensured that Minor could throw a strike whenever he needed to. Opposing batters also popped it up frequently, with a 41.5 FB% and 28.9 IFFB% that held them to a .249 batting average against the pitch last year.

As good as his fastball was, it could be even better. Minor's fastball only had an Active Spin of 67.8% last season, a number that's well short of the 80+% marks many big league pitchers enjoy. It's not clear if Minor or the Rangers know how to get more movement out of those RPM, but there could be a ton of upside here if they figure something out.

Minor also throws an excellent changeup that generated a 15.8 SwStr% despite a 51 Zone% last season. Batters didn't do much with it either, slashing a paltry .178/.246/.265 against Minor's change. This fastball-change combo allows Minor to effectively control the contact quality against him in ways that few others can, suggesting that xFIP (which doesn't include contact management) may not be the most predictive metric in this case. Baseball Savant says that Minor deserved an ERA of 3.91 based on the exit velocities and launch angles he allowed, more than good enough to be a fantasy asset in today's game.

Room for Improvement in Pitch Mix

Minor rounds out his repertoire with two breaking pitches: a slider and a curve. Neither is great by traditional metrics. His slider brings a decent 11.3 SwStr% to the table, but its 44.9 Zone% and 35.2% chase rate leave a lot to be desired. His curve had an identical 11.3 SwStr% last year, but its 44.1 Zone% and 26.8% chase rate were even worse.

However, his curve looks to have more potential than his slider. Minor threw his slider 30.7% of the time against lefties, but only 15.9% against righties. This would suggest that it's more effective against lefties than righties, but its .365 xwOBA vs. LHB was considerably higher than its .317 mark against RHB. His curve was used 10.8% of the time vs. RHB and 13.5% vs. LHB, but its .286 xwOBA against lefties suggests that it should take the slider's place. Minor only used his great change 6.7% of the time against lefties, but its .126 xwOBA allowed in that small sample likely warrants more use as well.

In short, Minor used his slider in an inefficient way last season. If he goes after left-handed bats with more curves and changeups instead, he could be poised to have an even better season than he did last year.

A Pitcher-Friendly Environment

In an era where managers actively look for excuses to turn the game over to their bullpen, Mike Minor's 208 1/3 IP in 2019 tied for seventh in the league. This proves that Minor has the stamina to pitch deep into games, but also suggests that his team is willing to let him do so. Furthermore, the fact that Minor tied with teammate Lance Lynn at that innings threshold proves that the Rangers have no problem with starters pitching deep into games even if they don't have Clayton Kershaw's track record. If you want innings, it makes sense to go with an organization that lets their starters throw.

Some fantasy owners may not have received the full benefit of Minor's IP last season because they were concerned about his home park. Indeed, Globe Life Park had a Baseball Prospectus runs factor of 105 for right-handed batters and 113 for left-handed batters in 2019, playing very hitter-friendly regardless of handedness. Luckily for Minor, Globe Life Park will be replaced by Globe Life Field in 2020.

We don't know exactly how the new park will play yet, but early reports suggest that it may favor pitchers. When slugger Joey Gallo took BP there, he said that "it's playing big as hell" and that "it's a little deep in center." The new stadium has a retractable roof, and multiple players have said that the ball doesn't fly as far when it's closed. Considering the Dallas heat, it's going to be closed more often than not. All of this is anecdotal, but even a neutral home field would offer upside considering where Minor has pitched the last few years.

Conclusion

If Minor merely repeats his 2019 season over however many innings the 2020 schedule allows him to throw, he will return value based on the wins and strikeouts he generates. This becomes especially valuable when you consider the other starters in his price range, as Matthew Boyd (157.6 ADP) may not win a game all season pitching for dreadful Detroit, Sean Manaea (165.21) can't be counted on to absorb innings considering his health history, and Carlos Martinez (169.2) may not be able to start at all.

Minor offers two routes to improvement as well. If he can increase his fastball's Active Spin rate, he should be able to best last season's career-high 23.2 K%. Alternatively, a more efficient pitch mix involving fewer sliders to left-handed batters could help him manage contact even more effectively. Either way, you're getting a top-100 fantasy asset outside of the top-150 picks. Value!

Verdict: Champ (based on strong repertoire, safe floor, and affordable draft day cost)

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