Quarterback Draft Bargains - Fantasy Football ADP Arbitrage: Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill

August 26, 2022

Undervalued fantasy football quarterbacks for 2022 drafts. Avoid other high-priced QBs, and target these quarterback draft value picks and sleepers instead.

Let's finish up this series with a look at the all-important quarterback position. When you're done, you should look back at running back, wide receiver, and tight end ADP comps as well.

While ADP is very informative and can help you be informed about where you should start worrying about potentially missing out on a player, it shouldn't affect your decisions massively. Take Josh Allen's 2021 season: 402.6 fantasy points to lead the whole NFL and the current holder of a 34 ADP that is seeing him drafted inside the first three rounds of drafts these days and as the clear-cut no. 1 QB. Does that mean you should absolutely trust Allen having another monster year that when all is said and done gives you a good return on investment after paying a second-round pick for him? Nope! In fact, the most logical thing to happen is Allen regressing and finishing with more average-ish fantasy numbers in 2022.

In this four-entry series, I'll go through the four offensive positions of fantasy football, highlighting names that are going cheap in early drafts and evaluating how they are expected to produce similar numbers to other much more-hyped players.

Identifying Undervalued QBs for Fantasy Football

I'm not going to play games in this column and bring middling names to the table, no. Instead of that, I'll be going for the fences and swinging the bat with all of the power to get some fantasy-heavy names here and there. No second-tier players here, that is.

Everybody knows that nobody is drafting a quarterback with a top-24 pick. That said, it's normal to see one or two QBs making their way toward a third- or fourth-round spot. This season, there are only two players getting drafted inside the first four rounds of fantasy drafts and one of them is a pleasant surprise: Josh Allen is getting off draft boards with an ADP of 34 (third round) and that's perfectly reasonable; to find Justin Herbert boasting the second-highest ADP among all 2022 quarterbacks, though, is as surprising as it gets but looks like a gamble most fantasy GMs out there are willing to take ahead of the next campaign.

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, two more than established quarterbacks, are getting drafted in the fifth round with three more QBs (all of them still into their early years and with tons of upside and development ahead) drafted into the first six rounds this summer. With so many cheaper options down the board having a similar upside to those two/two/three split players, and with the QB position always giving value to those not betting unconsciously on past performance, you're probably better off waiting for a late-round option rather than drafting any of Josh Allen or... well, Justin Herbert.

Here is what I'm looking for when trying to identify comps for these top-two players at lower spots. If we build some sort of "combined profile" of the two, we can land at something close to:

• At least 265 FP on the season
• At least 50 fantasy points rushing

Identifying QB Bargains with RD4+ ADP

After applying those filters and thresholds to the projections data, this is what I was left with.

That chart is definitely not very promising for those chasing a Zero-QB strategy, is it? With the exception of Ryan Tannehill, all other quarterbacks fitting the model above have ADPs below the 70th pick OVR. Quite pricey! I'll be mentioning other names below, of course, but keep in mind that if you're looking for actual quarterbacks with huge total FP and a more-than-regular outcome on rushing plays, well, it's not that those were abundant in the 2021 landscape.

Naming hidden names: only Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, and Taysom Hill (who I don't even rate as a quarterback) posted 40+ PPR points via rushing last year. The positive thing about that: Fields and Wilson were rookies last year, Hill can do a little bit of everything, and Darnold is a solid-yet-mediocre player. The negative: Fields plays football in Chicago, Wilson might miss more than a couple of weeks after reinjuring his knee, Darnold got demoted to a QB2 role after Carolina added Baker Mayfield, and Hill is (again) not a quarterback. Ugh.

Anyway, let's explore the field and try to find some upside where there seemingly is nothing of value to uncover.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ADP 61.5)

Murray's ADP went from a 10th-round pick as a rookie, to a sixth, then a third last year. It'd have made sense for him to stay around that level, but the truth is that he's back down to the sixth-round realm in 12-team leagues this summer. Which is pretty much a bargain all things considered.

Murray didn't have an extraordinary year as a rookie but he still posted up an average of 17.8 FPPG on his way to a top-eight finish among QBs. He doubled down on that with a 23.7 FPPG average and a top-three finish in 2020, and even though he missed three games entirely last year, he was good for another top-10 finish. You just don't get that type of production on a yearly basis from someone drafted in the sixth round. But here we are.

PFF is projecting Murray to the seventh-best total FP tally next season to the tune of 356.4 fantasy points. That's nearly the same projection as the one the company is assigning Justin Herbert (358.0) with the difference that Herbert is getting drafted inside the fourth round and Murray is still available into the sixth.

Murray is one of only six quarterbacks projected for 100+ rushing attempts and one of only four with a projection of 600+ rushing yards and six rushing TDs.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 68.8)

I keep reading and seeing people out there hating on Hurts and I can't understand one tiny bit of it. Why all of the vitriol, honestly? Hurts got to the NFL a couple of seasons ago, played 15 games (only four of those starting, mind you), and still finished that rookie part-time season with 354 rushing yards and three rushing TDs along with six passing TDs against just four INTs in 148 throws (1,061 yards, 52% completion rate).

Hurts, starting all games in which he appeared last season (15), was good for a QB1 (top-nine) finish in his first true year starting for a pretty mediocre Eagles franchise barred of talent. Yet, haters kept popping up everywhere. The 23-year-old commander improved all across the board on the passing front (61.3% completed passes, 3,144 yards, 16:9 TD:INT) and posted historical numbers on the ground with 784 rushing yards and 10 TDs in just 139 scrambles.

Yes, I wrote "historical" on purpose. Only Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson (three times) have ever rushed the rock 139+ times along with Hurts, but none of the two ever scored more than seven rushing touchdowns while only Jackson (twice) topped Hurts' 784 yards.

Lamar's ADP coming off his legitimately great rushing campaigns were 13.9 ahead of 2020 and 33.7 before last season. Hurts' ADP is more than double that last figure. Please, don't let him slip past one of your first six picks.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (ADP 117.9)

The same as you can label Hurts "Kyler Lite," I guess you can label Fields "Costco Hurts" or something of the like. Fields has still worlds to improve if he wants to reach Hurts--let alone Murray--in terms of overall play and fantasy upside, but he might be on the verge of making the true leap this next season. Fields, same as Hurts, played only a part-time role in Chicago last year appearing on 12 games and starting 10.

Even then, Fields was better than Hurts as a rookie with more rushing yards (only one fewer TD), more passing yards, come completions and accuracy, and more passing TDs. Fields, of course, rushed the rock a lot (72 times) for a ton of yards (420) and a fantastic 5.8 YPC while at it scoring a couple of rushing touchdowns throughout the season.

Here are all quarterbacks with 420+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing TDs on fewer than 75 carries in the past 20 years: Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Colin Kaepernick, Mitchell Trubisky, and Justin Fields. The first four were able to reach those numbers over full years and backed up by solid passing work while Fields had to do it without having the benefit of defenses staying honest as Fields' passing game was still developing.

The Bears are definitely not the team you want to chase when it comes to getting fantasy points from receiving/passing statistics, but the trio of Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, and N'Keal Harry should do enough to at least keep Fields viable on the passing front while the quarterback by himself should be good on the ground to boost his FP tally a good bunch.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (ADP 155.0)

Tannehill is definitely not the most exciting quarterback out there but he does enough on a yearly basis for someone steadily going so under the radar. Since signing with Tennessee, Tannehill has put together three consecutive top-22 QB seasons and finished as a QB1 in each of the past two years. He regressed quite a bit last season, yes, but it was just a little bump in the road and he still found a way to average 15.8 FPPG and beat his ADP (QB13) with a QB12 finish.

The Titans are not going to turn into a bombs-away team all of a sudden, let alone with Derrick Henry still in the middle of his prime and churning out yards off his majestic rushing. That said, Tennessee acquired Robert Woods and spent a high pick on Treylon Burks for a reason after being forced to trade A.J. Brown away.

Now, if you're too much into data crunching, you might don't picture Tannehill as a rushing quarterback in your head. It's reasonable because his rushing numbers are definitely not mindblowing. Even then, though, he's scored seven touchdowns in back-to-back seasons while getting an eerily similar 266 and 270 rushing yards in each of the past two years.

Should we expect Tannehill's rushing production to regress to a more reasonable mean? Yes. Or should we? Only 23 quarterbacks have had player-seasons of 7+ TDs since 2000 included. Two of those belong to Tannehill. That definitely has to do with the way the Titans operate and scheme plays. But nothing has changed in Tennessee so there will be nothing preventing Tannehill from having another five-TD season on the ground, honestly. Don't sleep on RT, because the context benefits his production, is a tried and tested one, and he's thrived in it for two years and running (pun intended).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets (ADP 156.8)

See, I could lie to you straight to your face by saying I grew enamored of Zach Wilson's rookie season. I could do so, but that's just a blatantly fake statement on my part. That said, though, I liked what I see and although Wilson was kinda mediocre as a freshman he still showed some traits that could prove valuable going forward and in a short time.

Wilson is one of only 36 rookie quarterbacks to start 13+ games in their first year in the NFL since 2000. Wilson's 11.7 FPPG figure is tied for the 23rd-best mark among those in that group; nothing incredible but nothing horrible either. What I liked about Wilson's rookie year, though, is how confident he was in his legs.

Wilson only got 29 carries to showcase his abilities, yes, but he did so to the tune of 185 rushing yards and an average of 6.4 YPC, the fourth-highest mark among those same 36 quarterbacks. He also scored four touchdowns on the ground, something only 13 of those 36 passers can claim as a feat for themselves.

It's hard for Wilson to drop further down the ADP leaderboard as he's already getting drafted into the 14th round of 12-team drafts, but there is a chance after he sustained a knee injury in the preseason. I would definitely not advice making Wilson your QB1, and perhaps not even your second option in 2-QB leagues, but definitely keep an eye on the waiver wire just in case you need a solid option at some point with very valuable rushing upside.

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