X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Aaron Jones Stays In Green Bay - Fantasy Impact

Justin Carter analyzes Aaron Jones re-signing with the Packers - the 2021 fantasy football outlooks, projections and fantasy outputs for Jones and Packers skill players.

One of the more shocking moments of NFL free agency happened on Sunday, before free agency had even began. Aaron Jones is returning to the Green Bay Packers.

After the team chose not to use the franchise tag on Jones, it seemed like a foregone conclusion he'd be going somewhere else this season. But nope, he'll stay with the Packers on a four-year, $48 million contract. Should an NFL team have invested heavily in a running back? That's a discussion for another day.

Today, we're just concerned with these questions: what should we expect from Aaron Jones in 2021, and how does this signing impact the fantasy football potential of other pieces on this Packers team?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

What's Aaron Jones' Ceiling In Green Bay?

Let's start with why the Packers have brought back Aaron Jones.

Even in an NFL landscape where teams are increasingly deciding that running backs are less important than the other offensive skill positions and that plenty of backs can be productive when put in a good situation, Aaron Jones stands out.

Why?

Efficiency.

I decided to head over to Stathead and try to see just how much Jones stands out.

First, there have been just 23 seasons where a player had 200 carries and averaged at least 5.45 yards per carry, but 14 of those came before the year 2000, and then a good number of the rest were in the 2000s. Since 2010, there have been four such seasons:

So, there's the first notable thing about Jones: his ability to run the ball this much and sustain his efficiency is impressive. If you remember, his first two NFL seasons also saw him run the ball with this same level of efficiency, but with far fewer touches, prompting worries he couldn't sustain that in a larger role. 2019 saw him drop down to 4.6 yards per carry. That still ranked 14th among qualifying backs, so even Jones' least-efficient season saw him average more yards per carry that season than Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook.

Furthermore, Jones has a career YPC of 5.2 on 651 carries. 19 players have 650 or more carries with over five yards per carry, but the majority of those are quarterbacks. In terms of running backs, only Marion Motley, Jamaal Charles, Nick Chubb, Jim Brown, and Dan Towler have a higher YPC average while running the ball at least as any times as Jones. And Motley and Towler should barely count -- they were fullbacks in the 40s and 50s.

So, yeah, Jones is uber-efficient. That's aided by him playing with an elite quarterback, which helps open up space for him, but let's not give Aaron Rodgers all the credit. Jones still had 4.5 yards per carry against stacked boxes last year, so even though he faced an average of just 6.8 defenders in the box, he still showed he could move the football when the defense did key in on him. He was also ninth in yards created.

Jones is set to be a solid fantasy RB1 option this year. We can argue some specifics, like how high his ceiling is if he's only 12th among backs in receptions again, but Jones was fourth in fantasy points per game last year. He should be considered as an option to be the fifth running back taken in re-draft after Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook.

 

Is The A.J. Dillon Hype Train Over?

Yes. Put the A.J. Dillon hype away.

Dillon was being drafted as the RB26 right now per NFC's ADP data. That, of course, was happening because of the assumption that Dillon was probably the starter in Green Bay this year, but was leaving some room for that to not be the case.

Well, now we need to leave all the room for that to not be the case. With Jones' workload, there's just no way I'd be drafting Dillon as an RB3. I'd feel much more comfortable drafting him in the low-end RB4 range like other backups whose value is stifled by playing behind a top runner, like Alexander Mattison (currently RB43) or where Jamaal Williams was being drafted (RB47).

This is where I want to go on a quick tangent: drafting A.J. Dillon in the second round was probably a bad move, but I don't think re-signing Jones makes it any worse than it already was. Don't draft a running back high when you already have one and when you need weapons on the outside. That was true in 2020, and it's still true after re-signing Jones. Likewise, Dillon hasn't shown enough for you to say "ok, we think Aaron Jones is one of the few game-changers at running back, but we have to let him walk because we have A.J. Dillon.) It's a messy situation that the Packers could have avoided by taking someone in the Joshua Kelley/La'Mical Perine/DeeJay Dallas tier a couple of rounds later. You still get some running back depth, but you don't use a second-round pick on one in the same draft where you used your first-round pick on a quarterback.

Anyway, Dillon has a 97th percentile speed score and burst score. In theory, he can be a great backup for Aaron Jones and a starter on another team. But the reality here is that he had 46 carries as a rookie and the Packers are going to lean heavily on Aaron Jones this year. Dillon can be an RB2 with upside if Jones misses time, but all the hype he's been getting and all the trades that have been happening in dynasty leagues involving him are now feeling like mistakes.

 

How Else Does This Impact The Packers and League?

For the Packers, not a lot changes, aside from the assumption that more money for Jones could mean less money to bring in a free agent receiver. But maybe they'll just use a draft pick on a young receiver and go into next season with Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and someone from this extremely good draft class.

Aside from that, yeah...I don't have a lot of team-wide takeaways here. The Packers will look very much like the 2020 Packers on offense still. Consistency is nice, so maybe not having a lot of turnover will help Aaron Rodgers out, but also he was a top-five fantasy QB last year, so how much higher could he go? If anything, another year of wear and tear could lead to the Packers emphasizing the run more, which would help Jones and hurt Rodgers.

Elsewhere, this alters the running back market significantly. Jones was the best running back on the market. Teams like the Jets or Jaguars who had huge holes at running back no longer can bring Jones in to fill those holes, while no contenders can step in and offer Jones a chance to be their missing piece.

Chris Carson is now likely the best back out there. Carson's good, but he's not a can't-miss signing like Jones would have been. Teams like would have been fighting it out for Jones' services now might be more tempted to use an early pick -- late first or early second -- on a back as well.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Merrill2 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Luis Castillo2 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki2 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Dennis Santana2 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips2 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
George Springer3 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman3 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies3 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Freddy Peralta3 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Michael Harris II4 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson4 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Paul Skenes4 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans4 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Ketel Marte4 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With Diamondbacks
Iván Herrera4 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Slugs Three Homers, Drives In Six In Win Over Angels
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Sunday
Ketel Marte5 hours ago

Diamondbacks Working On Extension For Ketel Marte
Frankie Montas6 hours ago

Playing Catch From 60 Feet
Trea Turner6 hours ago

Returns To Wednesday's Lineup
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
9
11
10
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
33
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]