MLB Prospects Breakout Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Hitters and Pitchers (Week 3)

April 14, 2023

MLB prospects risers and fantasy baseball breakout rookies, based on minor league Statcast data for Week 3. These hitters and pitchers are excelling in AAA.

The 2023 MLB season is off and running, and we have even fuller and better data to use this year! This has become a theme over the last decade as Major League Baseball is really giving us unprecedented access to the data of what is going on in the games.

A huge development this season is that the Statcast infrastructure has been put into all AAA stadiums. The Pacific Coast League had it last year, but now the International League has it as well, which covers the entirety of the AAA level. Since this is the last stop on the way to the Majors, we have some very high-profile prospects playing there. In addition, there will also be dozens of prospects this year that make the move from AAA to the MLB. This means that we can know more than ever before about these prospects that are coming up, and I am here to take you through it all.

Every week here, I will analyze the biggest standouts in the data, and we will all become more and more familiar with the fantasy baseball prospects that are performing the best. The goal would be to find highly-skilled prospects for dynasty and keeper leagues, but this should also prove useful for redraft leagues as well. We may be able to know which prospects are more and less likely to excel upon reaching the majors. Let's start it off.

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Top Prospect Hitters

Barrel Rates

We are going to try to split this evenly between hitters and pitchers. Right now, most hitters have fewer than 50 PAs under their belt. This tends to make the stats really hard to trust since we don't have a ton of history behind any of these guys. For that reason, I am just going to show some statistical leaders rather than highlight individual players this week.

Here are your barrel rate leaders so far:

Most of those guys are uninteresting because they aren't actually prospects. Zack Collins, Mike Ford, Zack Short, and Erik Gonzalez -- those are all names we have seen in the majors already but have just proven to not be good enough with the bat to stick. We aren't going to be interested in them no matter what they do in AAA.

One name that stands out at least a little bit is Tucupita Marcano, the Pirates infielder who has spent some time in the majors already. Unfortunately, his max exit velocity falls at just 102 mph -- showing a lack of swing speed that will probably keep his power production down. However, he's still a young kid and someone who could get the call-up to the majors soon with Oneil Cruz on the shelf, so it's good to see him hitting well.

Brett Baty is the big name here. He is the Mets' top prospect who should be up in the majors sooner rather than later to take over at the hot corner. His MLB debut was last season, but he was soon after hurt and that cost him a ton of time. He had another injury last week that was a bit of a scare, but he's already back playing. It's time to stash Baty.

Max Velocity

The hardest hit balls of the minor league season:

1. Jorge Alfaro (BOS): 116.4
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): 115.4
3. CJ Alexander (KC): 115.3
4. Taylor Jones (LAA): 115.1
5. Joey Ortiz (BAL): 114.9
6. Alex Jackson (MIL): 114.4
7. Austin Allen (MIA): 113.7
8. Matt Wallner (MIN): 113.6
9. Tyler Soderstrom (OAK): 113.5
10. Jo Adell (LAA): 113.4

It is no small task to be able to hit a ball above 113 mph. The only MLB top 100 prospects you see above are Tyler Soderstrom (#35) and Joey Ortiz (#93). That makes those names a bit more interesting and they will be someone to consider adding if they eventually get the call-up.

Other Notables

• Joey Votto has seen 36 PAs in AAA and has averaged 95.7 mph of exit velocity. He's homered once and struck out 20 times -- yikes!
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) has been smashing the ball, averaging 94.4 mph of exit velocity with a 12% barrel rate. He's striking out a lot at 29%, too.
• Buddy Kennedy (ARI) leads AAA in OPS with a mark of 1.503. He has three homers, a .409 batting average, and not a single strikeout yet. He spent some time in the majors for the Snakes last year, and there are plenty of names blocking him in the majors right now -- but he's banging down the door so far.
• Jo Adell (LAA) has been mashing with seven homers in 47 PAs. Hitting on minor league pitching has never been an issue for him, and we've seen him already fail several times in the majors -- but hey, at least he's still hitting down there!
• Christopher Morel (CHC) is doing the Morel thing again. He has a 17% barrel rate but a high 31% strikeout rate while homering just once.

Top Prospect Pitchers

K-BB% Leaders

The top stat to look at doesn't even have to do with Statcast. Most SPs have made just one or two starts, so it's quite early.

Let's check on it anyways:

The names to care about here are Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, MLB's #54 prospect), Luis Ortiz (PIT), Matthew Liberatore (STL), and Chase Silseth (LAA). Pfaadt is the most high-profile name, but those other names could eventually get some run in a Major League Baseball rotation -- and they're all pitching great so far.

SwStr% Leaders

You love to see a bunch of whiffs, so here are the leaders in SwStr% so far:

DL Hall is someone who could make the O's rotation sooner rather than later, and he has some nasty stuff that he's showing us so far this year in AAA. Bailey Ober is also a really alluring fantasy option that should be added right away if a job opens up for him in the Twins rotation.

Alrighty, that's all I have to show today. This post will get better and better throughout the year -- so check back every Thursday morning!

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