X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

A Year to Remember: MLB Hitters Who Had Career Years in 2022 Fantasy Baseball

Jon Anderson dives into the 2022 data to identify fantasy baseball hitters who had career years in 2022 and how to interpret those seasons with an eye on 2023.

The World Series is still going on, but here at RotoBaller, we've already turned one of our eyes toward the 2023 fantasy baseball season. That is just the kind of round-the-clock baseball coverage you get here. I have already published two pieces, reviewing hitters and pitchers that were major disappointments in 2022 that I judge as likely bounce-backs in 2023.

Pitcher Bounce-Backs
Hitter Bounce-Backs

Next, I want to do the opposite. In these next two articles, I will look at pitchers and hitters that had career years in 2022 and what to think about them for 2023. We're covering hitters in this one, and soon the pitcher piece will be out.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

Every individual case deserves its unique attention and judgment, but my general rule:

  • Draft the player coming off of career-worst seasons
  • Don't draft the players coming off of career-best seasons

This seems a bit counterintuitive, and a large swath of the field likes to do the opposite. Again, every player is a unique case, so I'm not applying this rule globally - however, I think there is a real edge in "buying the dip" and "fading the premium." I will be looking to draft most of the players I mentioned in the articles linked above, but for the names in this article and the next, I will be more disinterested in them for 2023 given the likely higher cost. Let's get to it.

 

Career Year Hitters and What To Do With Them

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Year PA HR PA/HR AVG OPS
2016 95 4 23.8 .179 .608
2017 678 52 13.0 .284 1.049
2018 498 27 18.4 .278 .919
2019 447 27 16.6 .272 .921
2020 114 9 12.7 .257 .891
2021 633 39 16.2 .287 .916
2022 696 62 11.2 .311 1.111

If you're reading this, chances are you knew that Aaron Judge hit 62 home runs in 2022. He was the biggest story of the 2022 season as he set the American League record for most home runs hit in a season. This was clearly the biggest "career year" we saw in 2022, and it's the biggest one I can remember in quite some time.

Now it wasn't COMPLETELY out of nowhere. If you were told that someone would hit 62 homers before the season begins, Judge would have been one of the first players you would have guessed to be the guy to do it. That said, hitting this many home runs in a single season is an incredibly, incredibly hard thing to do and we should not expect to see that repeated any time soon.

Judge set the barrel rate record in 2022, although this statistic only goes back to 2015. Only nine players have managed to achieve a barrel rate above 20% over 400+ plate appearances, and Judge absolutely dusted that threshold:

The fact that Judge has done this twice and has the two highest rates is certainly a point in his favor as to the possibility of him doing it again in 2023, but it's worth noting that he has failed to meet this criterion much more often than he has achieved it. It's very, very hard to do.

I am willing to believe that Judge can hit 50 homers next year, and although I would probably bet the under on a line like that, it's not an insane projection. It's harder for me to believe that he can hit above .300 again given that 2022 was the first time he managed that feat. It wouldn't be shocking on that front either, given his improved strikeout rate (25% over the last two seasons) and his always-high BABIP (.345 career), but I would be betting the under on almost everything he did in 2022.

One big needle that needs to drop is the question of where he will be playing next year. He is a free agent and is sure to get a massive, massive contract from someone. If that team is not the Yankees, it's highly likely that the park factors will be getting worse for Judge in 2023. Yankees Stadium is a fantastic place for him to hit, so basic probability would say that he'll likely be in a worse spot next year if he doesn't re-sign with the bombers.

I'm using a lot of words on Judge here, who is a stud hitter and a first-round pick next year and there's really no debating that. I just don't think it's necessarily wise to buy in on a guy coming off of a season like this that will be nearly impossible to replicate when it will cost you a top-three pick in the draft. I am likely to have Judge a few slots lower than the field next year, which will probably mean I will have none of him.

Final verdict: I'm not telling anybody not to draft Judge next year, but the facts of probability in this world tell us that he will likely fall well short of his 2022 numbers moving forward.

Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

In 2022, Swanson set career bests in all of these categories:

  • PA (696)
  • Runs(99)
  • RBI (96)
  • SB (18)
  • AVG (.277)
  • OPS (.776)

This was his age-28 season, so it's not surprising to see the peak around that age. This guy was also drafted #1 overall and seemingly always had a bit more offensive upside in the tank as compared to what we had gotten used to seeing from him.

However, there's no questioning that 2022 was a career year for Swanson, and his draft price is certain to reach a new max in 2023.

I think I have already said enough to make my case, honestly. Swanson was just a good/fine hitter for years, and then in 2022, he became a great hitter. It might seem overly simplistic, but for me at this point, I've already seen enough. I will always believe in the bigger data sample more than I believe in the smaller sample, even if that smaller sample is more recent.

But I will trudge on. One other thing I can offer is that Swanson has been a very streaky hitter. He tends to have these massive spans of several weeks where he just tears the cover off of the ball only to go a month or so after that being pretty mediocre. This happened for Swanson in 2022:

Here are his stats by month.

Month PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB K%
April 82 .216 .293 .351 1 2 36.6%
May 112 .304 .357 .490 5 6 25.0%
June 123 .330 .390 .563 7 3 23.6%
July 115 .308 .357 .430 2 3 21.7%
Aug 129 .254 .302 .373 2 2 27.1%
Sep-Oct 135 .236 .274 .449 8 2 25.9%

Half of his homers in two months, and just one month with an SLG above .500 (it finished at .447).

This is a weaker argument, I admit, there's no great reason to prefer a guy that evenly distributes the production over six months to a guy that does it in chunks, but the 2021 season was similar for Swanson and I just have the fear that he could have a season where he puts five or six bad months up instead of just two or three and then you have a full-scale disaster.

The other criticism I can level is that he doesn't do any single thing all that well. His 26% K% was a couple of points worse than the league average and the 10.8% Brl% is far from elite (as we saw the league leaders flirting with or exceeding 20%). He will steal some bases, but I don't think he has 30 steals in the range of outcomes, so there just really isn't a ton of ceiling here.

Final verdict: It seems to me that there's more downside and less upside than the field will realize here, so I will let someone else pay the premium on Swanson in 2023.

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers

I would have bet a large amount of money that Garcia would not best his 2021 rookie season in 2022, so it's good that such a bet was never proposed to me. Garcia had one of the latest "rookie" years of anybody you'll ever see in 2021, debuting at the age of 28 and pounding 31 homers on a .243/.286/.454 line despite a large 31.2% K%. I would have been fully confident that such a season was a mirage and Garcia would end up benched or worse in 2022.

What actually happened was that Garcia hit 27 more homers, stole 25 more bases, and slashed .250/.300/.456 while improving the strikeout rate to 27.9%. He was incredibly valuable for fantasy, and very well could have been the overall best pick of the average 2022 draft.


We seem to have a "fool me twice" situation on our hands here. The improvement made on the strikeout rate is encouraging and convincing, and his expected stats were just fine as well:

  • xBA: .244
  • xSLG: .447
  • xwOBA: .322
  • xwOBACON: .422

He hits the ball with authority (12.9% Brl%, max exit velo of 113), and has above-average speed (66th percentile). I tend to hold grudges in fantasy, which means I will probably not draft Adolis in 2023 - but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it even at the elevated price, so I'm not planting a flag here.

Final verdict: I still won't be surprised at a disappointing 2023 season for Garcia, but I see no problem with drafting him even at this elevated cost.

Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

One of the goofier stat lines of the 2022 season went to Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker. He smashed 36 homers, the seventh-most in baseball while slashing .242/.327/.477 in 667 plate appearances.

What's goofy about that? I guess not much, but the way he got to that .242 batting average sure was:

On August 5th, Walker's batting average sat below the vaunted Mendoza line at .199. This was after posting an expected batting average of around .240 for the entire year. Over his final 241 plate appearances, Walker hit .315 and raised the batting average the whole way up to basically match that expected figure. Let's do an expected stats comparison for the full year:

Stat Actual Expected
AVG .242 .257
SLG .477 .484
wOBA .346 .359

As someone who paid close attention to Walker for most of the year but then not much in the final month, it shocks me how much his line changed over the final two months.

The thing I liked the most about Walker during the season was his strikeout rate, which finished at a great 19.6%. This is a pretty impressive thing for someone hitting for so much power to do. Walker finished the year with a barrel rate of 11.5%. Only eleven hitters managed a barrel rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 20%.

What is also very weird about Walker's season was how low his barrel rate finished.

Walker's barrel rate sat at 14.3% at the all-star break, the 14th-best in the league at that time. From August 1st to the end of the year, Walker had a pedestrian 8.6% barrel rate despite still hitting homers at a strong rate (19.8 PA/HR).

So what we have now is just complete confusion. Walker's career prior to 2022 was such that he was going undrafted in most fantasy drafts, and then for four months he was one of the best power hitters in the league while hitting for a putrid batting average. Then, for two months, he hit for a great batting average but the underlying power numbers got significantly worse despite continued home run production.

Who is the real Christian Walker? I'm throwing my hands up - your guess is as good as mine. And in cases like this, I will just draft guys I have a better grip on and let someone else pay the heightened cost for the unknown entity.

Final verdict: When in doubt, fade the high prices.

Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers

The former top Rays prospect put up the best effort of his career, slashing .302/.358/.492 across 645 plate appearances, hitting 27 homers, driving in 76, and scoring 74 times.

He did this with a barrel rate of just 9.9%, above average but a few points away from being great, and he kept hitting a bunch of ground balls (48%, although that did come down from 55% in 2021). Lowe was also a guy that did a ton of damage in a portion of the season. He had an OPS right around .600 in mid-May, but then from June on posted a mark of .914.

Stat Actual Expected
AVG .302 .275
SLG .492 .459
wOBA .368 .344

We have some serious discrepancies in the table above. The .368 BABIP and the 19.9% HR/FB marks were the best (read: luckiest?) of his young career.

Lowe is a young hitter at just 27-years-old, and he is placed firmly in the middle of a very capable lineup. There are reasons to believe he can continue to improve and post another top-10 season at the first base position, but I think his cost may be a bit higher than is right in 2023 given that he seemed to have been pretty fortunate in 2022.

Final verdict: I think the floor is fine with Lowe, and he is a talented hitter at a young age, but I would rather be on the side of the fade here given what I expect from the ADP.

Brandon Drury, San Diego Padres

The "what the hell was that?" hitter of the year was Brandon Drury. He turned 30 this year and had the best season of his long career.

Drury hit his way into a trade to a postseason team. He slashed .274/.335/.520 with the Reds while hitting 20 homers (19.3 PA/HR). The slash line with the Padres (.238/.290/.435) was much worse, but he kept hitting homers at a good rate (eight bombs in 183 PA for a 22.9 PA/HR).

Drury will become a free agent after this season wraps up, so his 2023 outlook will be slightly determined by where he lands, and I think the field is sharp enough not to buy this guy as a real .800 OPS hitter, but even so - I'm guessing he will be too expensive and I'll be off of Drury almost entirely.

Final verdict: My guess is that Drury is a guy that just wanted to homer his way out of Cincinnati, and we saw how bad the batting average got after his departure. I can buy Drury as a 25-homer guy next year, but I don't think his output will mass his draft cost - I'm fading Drury.

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

One more to go here, and it's questionable if 2022 was truly Goldschmidt's "career year." He slashed a light .317/.404/.578 with 35 homers and seven steals, but I would probably take his 2013 season over that. In that breakout year, Goldy slashed .302/.401/.551 with 36 homers and 15 steals with the Diamondbacks.

We don't need to start a fight about that. What we do know is that Goldschmidt crushed expectations as a 35-year-old, and will be drafted as a top-three first baseman for 2023. Aside from the age question, it does seem that Goldy overpowered a bit in 2022:

Stat Actual Expected
AVG .317 .261
SLG .578 .482
wOBA .419 .367

Weirdly, Goldschmidt put up a .293 xBA, a .575 xSLG, and a .397 xwOBA in 2021 while his actual stats vastly underperformed those. So we had a flip-flop here.

All of that aside, we know Goldschmidt is a very good hitter - we shouldn't analyze the stats to death with veterans. His 11.5% Brl% was strong, his 21.7% K% was very good, and he benefits big time from some really strong hitters around him in that lineup.

I think it will be fine to draft Goldschmidt in the top-50 again, and another 30-homer, 10-steal season with a good batting average should be expected. Is there much upside for him at his price - I don't think so? It feels to me like the best he can do for you is a "Yeah I'll take that" season - and there is obviously risk associated with a guy of this age coming off an elite season like this somewhat surprisingly.

Final verdict: It's unlikely you really kick yourself for drafting Goldschmidt next year, but I don't see a ton of upside at the cost. I will probably be more interested in cheaper, younger first basemen in 2023.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF