X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Running Back Stat Busts: Elusiveness Rating - Ezekiel Elliott, Cordarrelle Patterson and More

Cordarrelle Patterson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Antonio Losada takes a look at the 2022 NFL running back group and highlights potential busts based on elusiveness rating so you can avoid these RBs in fantasy football drafts.

A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.

Often, players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line, or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity, then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy-relevant despite their offense or offensive line.

Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2021 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula "[Forced Missed Tackles / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt] * 100", trying to highlight four potential busts from 2022 fantasy football drafts given their 2021 numbers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

2022 Elusive Rating Busts

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

What if this whole Zeke drama is not about Zeke, but rather about Dallas' OL or just a flaw on Zeke and backup-RB Pollard? I mean, not going to jump to conclusions quickly here, but the fact that both Elliott and Pollard have struggled mightily to advance the rock after getting touched by D-men is quite interesting. The Cowboys rushers finished 2021 with 13 (Tony) and 16 (Zeke) broken tackles over the full season... while only 14 players total broke 16 or fewer among the 41 to log 150+ touches. Hmm...intriguing at the very least.

Zeke and Pollard got 3+ targets per game last year, quite high marks, but that didn't help them a lot as they had bottom-four figures in ELU with marks of 2.25 (Zeke) and 2.56 (Tony), only better than those of Devontae Booker (2.16) and Cordarrelle Patterson (2.44). Both RBs from Dallas posted higher yardage after than before contact, though the ratios weren't incredible (Elliott got the better one at 1.43:1 YAC:YBC). I saved the worst for last: Elliott needed 17.8 touches between every BrkTkl he got (third-worst figure)... and was the absolute worst ELU100 rusher with a ridiculous 0.79 figure that looks even worse considering Joe Mixon had the second-lowest mark already at 1.14. Ugh.

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions

The Lions decided to bring Jamaal to Detroit to share backfield duties with sophomore D'Andre Swift, and that's in fact what happened in Motown at least when it came to the rushing game: Swift got 151 carries to Williams' 153. The passing game was entirely skewed toward Swift, though, as the young man got 78 targets to Williams' 28. Anyway, I'm here only to hit JWill and his rather mediocre ELU through his first season donning Lions-blue threads. And the fact that his teammate finished as a top-five ELU-rusher last season isn't helping poor Jamaal.

William's ELU figure of 3.03 was the seventh-worst mark among RBs with 150+ touches over the 2021 campaign and his 13 total broken tackles over the season were tied for the sixth-fewest. Only the low amount of touches (179) compared to other rushers in this group saved him a bit on a per touch basis. The BrkTkl rate was down to 7.3% considering both the passing and rushing game, another bottom-seven mark while looking at that same group of 150+ touch players. Williams clearly did more damage on YAC than YBC, but the fact that he struggled mightily to break tackles clearly hurt that upside.

Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

I'm all in for fading Clyde Edwards-Helaire early in drafts and favoring Darrel Williams with a lower pick, but not even that might turn into a sound decision entering the 2022 fantasy draft season. Williams is coming off his best season as a pro after topping 70 PPR points for the first time in his four-year career to finish RB19, racking up 196 FP over 17 games played (he only "started" seven of those over CEH, though). The eight TDs from scrimmage (six rushing, two receiving) were good, but you can't rely on that type of stat and D-Will was almost better on pass-plays (452 yards) than rushing the rock (558).

Something must explain that, and an interesting data point might be the absolute incapacity of Williams to evade and break tackles: he was nearly the absolute worst rusher at both stats. Williams evaded 1.8 tackles per game (worst among RBs with 500+ snaps) and only broke 10 over the season for a rate of 5.2% in 2021 (second-worst only above Devontae Booker, already cut by NYG). Williams' ELU (3.03) wasn't remotely close to the worst of the worst (Booker/Elliott) but was a bottom-10 mark nonetheless. Williams was a clear before-contact rusher for KC, putting up only 0.81 YAC per every YBC he logged last season for a 55/45 split rushing the rock. Don't overpay for CEH but don't get too crazy about Darrel, either.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

Let me tell you about the two sides of Patterson. Pre-2021 Patt: 84 PPR points per season, average WR93. 2021-Patt: 234 PPR points, RB9. Something right there is very wrong and screams glitch, doesn't it!? Patterson is coming off perhaps his first reasonably normal season in terms of usage, and thus the one in which he posted career-highs in virtually all statistical categories from targets to receptions, carries, yardage, all sorts of touchdowns, etc. Patterson, by the way, was signed to back up RB1 Mike Davis, who was coming off his own career year with Carolina in 2020... and look at how things went for good old Mikey. Just saying.

Patterson was great, don't get me wrong. But for someone super well versed on fooling defenses on special plays (I mean we're talking about the Return Gawd), his evaded/broken tackles numbers suck too hard. He ranked in the 9th percentile in evaded tackles per game among rushers with 500+ snaps, and he could only break 12 tackles over a full 16-games-played, 205-balls-touched campaign. That yielded a stupid 5.9% BrkTkl rate that ranked as the fourth-lowest among rushers with 150+ touches in 2021, and although his 1.50 YAC per carry mark was an above-average figure, they weren't that useful considering he just couldn't break tackles to save his damn life. Thus, the putrid 2.44 ELU and even worse 1.19 ELU100 figure, both inside the bottom-six in their respective leaderboards. Yikes.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF