January 10, 2022

Shortstop Amed Rosario bounced back in his first season with Cleveland, batting .282 with 11 HRs, 13 SBs, 57 RBI, and 77 runs across 141 games. A lot of that production came in August, where he hit .372 with four long balls. However, those numbers were aided by an astronomical .422 BABIP and a year-high 13.3 HR/FB, even though Rosario barreled balls just 2.2% of the time. And his full-season batting average looked a lot better than his .265 xBA thanks to a .340 BABIP. Rosario will never walk much (career 4.6 BB%, 5.3 BB% in 2021) but should post a strikeout rate around 20%, though his unremarkable whiff rates (47th percentile in 2021) means he'll never be a premium contact hitter. A .270 batting average floor seems realistic, given the 26-year-old's 97th percentile sprint speed and low flyball totals (18.9 FB% in 2021), but he won't help too much in the category considering his 38th percentile average exit velocity last season and career 88.2 MPH mark. Rosario will again hit double-digit home runs after improving his HardHit% to 43.5% last year and producing a career-best 111.5 max exit velocity. But his 8th percentile barrel rate will keep him from hitting much more than last season's total. He'll steal north of 10 bags once again with his speed and the Guardians tendency to run, and hitting near the top of the lineup should make him at least a competent run-scorer. However, with limited power, the RBI won't be there. Rosario's going at pick 163, but his skill set isn't worth that high of a price.--Spencer Seguin