January 2, 2022

Cease followed in the footsteps of teammate Lucas Giolito last season, going from an out-of-control, high-velocity disaster (13.3% BB and 6.36 FIP in 2020) to a breakout star with the help of pitching guru Ethan Katz, who took over as the pitching coach for Chicago in 2021. Cease's 13-7 record and 3.91 ERA were good enough on their own, but a tantalizing 3.41 FIP and 22.3% K-BB ratio suggest the ceiling could be even higher for Cease. At 26 years old with a sturdy supporting cast around him, Cease could be primed to take another leap forward in 2022. The biggest obstacle for him is control, as the young righty has shown a tendency to unravel at any given moment. His 9.6% BB rate was the second-highest walk rate among qualified pitchers in 2021, and Cease struggled with an 11.6% walk rate in his final six starts last season. The walks were held in check thanks to a drastic uptick in chase rate (32.5% O-swing rate in 2021 vs. 26.4% in 2020), meaning opponents were now swinging at pitches they used to watch whizz by and get called balls. This approach can result in both a reduced walk rate and a healthy increase in strikeouts for the pitcher, but is reliant on heavy breaking ball usage and can result in turbulence on a start-by-start basis. When Cease doesn't have his best stuff, or scouting reports help batters better recognize his pitches, the bottom could fall out as we saw in 2019-2020 with him. There's a lot of upside in this profile, but it doesn't come without risk. Cease is reminiscent of a pre-2021 Robbie Ray. Big strikeouts and big potential, but not without significant drawbacks with control and efficiency. His NFBC ADP has him going around pick 86 (As of Jan. 2022), which seems fair given the pitchers going around him (Frankie Montas, Alek Manoah), but count on Cease as more of a risk/reward number three than a reliable number two if you can help it.--Elliott Baas