Champ or Chump: Ranger Suarez

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Philadelphia Phillies SP/RP Ranger Suarez in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

Last week, we discussed how dropping seemingly undroppable players could make sense for fantasy managers in battles that are going to the wire. While that's true, it also means that you could find somebody on waivers who you might not expect to be there. For instance, Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies has a 1.38 ERA and 3.57 xFIP in 78 IP this season but is somehow only rostered in 74% of Yahoo! leagues. If you've been searching for worthwhile streaming options, the 26-year-old lefty could be worth a look.

Suarez was never a huge prospect, signing as an international free agent out of Venezuela for a paltry $25,000 signing bonus and later testing positive for steroids in 2012 because he felt he needed something extra to get him to the big leagues. His MiLB performances were strong despite injuries, however, and he made his big league debut in 2018 before serving as a competent reliever in 2019 (3.14 ERA, 3.64 xFIP in 48 2/3 IP). Unfortunately, a positive COVID diagnosis limited him to four poor innings in 2020, leaving him an afterthought in fantasy baseball circles.

Suarez has eight starts and 27 relief appearances to his credit in 2021, and his role in the rotation appears to be secure for the rest of the season. Suarez isn't a true talent 1.38 ERA guy, but his peripherals suggest that he should remain a useful fantasy piece for this year and beyond. Let's take a closer look at exactly what he brings to the table!

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Spin? Who Needs It!

Fantasy managers usually look for high-spin fastballs because they generate the Ks we crave, but Kyle Hendricks and others have demonstrated that low spin rates can also lead to success. Suarez can be seen as the ultimate pitcher in the Hendricks mold, as his sinker's spin rate of 1,844 RPM ranks in the second percentile among qualified MLB arms. It's very difficult to elevate with a 65.9 GB% and virtually impossible to barrel, two qualities that are especially important at hitter's parks like Citizen's Bank.

Relying on a sinker is somewhat contrarian in the modern game, but Suarez seems to be doing so if his pitch mix is any indication. Back in 2019, he relied on a mediocre slider 20.4% of the time while throwing his sinker 28.5% of the time. This year, his sinker usage is up to 45.3% while his slider is barely featured at 6.2%. His sinker doesn't generate too many whiffs with a 6.5 SwStr%, but its 56.6 Zone% sets up the rest of his arsenal while its propensity for weak contact helps him get deep into games. The switch has helped his slider as well, boosting it from an 11.5 SwStr% in '19 to 15.8% this year.

Suarez has a solid 25 K%, so it's not like throwing a sinker prevents him from getting strikeouts. His best put-away pitch is his changeup which has a solid 19.5 SwStr%, 34.4 Zone%, and 34.8% chase rate on the season. Great changeups generally have low spin rates, so it fits nicely into Suarez's approach. Suarez also throws a four-seamer 23.7% of the time, and its 9 SwStr% and 60.2 Zone% aren't bad at all. He's gained a full tick of velocity relative to 2019 as well, going from 92.4 mph to 93.3 mph. The result is a solid four-pitch mix that ensures Suarez has something for every situation.

Skill Creates Luck

Managers who blindly assume that skill plays no part in metrics such as BABIP and HR/FB will be leery of Suarez as his .239 BABIP, 85.2% strand rate, and 6.3% HR/FB all scream negative regression. However, his 60.7 GB% is high enough to mitigate the impact of any HR/FB spike. Likewise, Statcast argues that most of his "batted ball luck" has actually been the result of the type of contact he's allowing.

For example, Suarez has a .182 batting average against this season with an xBA of .201. We should expect some regression, but batters haven't deserved that many hits against Suarez this year. Furthermore, his .248 slugging percentage allowed looks a lot more believable when you consider that his xSLG is only .278. The result is an xERA of 2.82, an excellent figure that ranks in the 93rd percentile among qualified pitchers.

From RP to SP

Suarez settled into a bullpen role in 2019, but the team used him for bulk innings and consistently stated that they saw him as a starter long-term. As such, most of his MiLB work came as a starting pitcher. Suarez briefly earned Philadelphia's closing gig this season but was stretched out for the rotation after the team added depth at the trading deadline. It took him four starts to build himself up, but he has thrown at least five innings in each of his last four starts with two QS in that time frame. Stamina should no longer be seen as a reason to avoid him in fantasy.

If you like to play the schedule, Suarez is scheduled for some favorable matchups. He's slated to face what's left of the Chicago Cubs at home on 9/15 before a date with the terrible Baltimore Orioles on 9/20. The Phils still see themselves as contenders, so they should be trying their best in their remaining games. He also has RP eligibility if that matters in your format. That makes Suarez a Champ for any manager looking for pitching help.

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