Champ or Chump: Frank Schwindel

September 7, 2021

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Chicago Cubs 1B Frank Schwindel in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

Now that the calendar has officially flipped to September, it's time to get weird if it helps you in the standings. If your league is coming down to saves and holds, roster SP-eligible relievers such as Diego Castillo and Ryne Stanek instead of starting pitchers. If you're ready to move on from a big name like Jose Altuve in favor of somebody who helps with a category of need, go for it!

If you're a prospect hound who checks MLB Pipeline's top-100 before adding an unfamiliar name, it may be time to roll the dice on somebody outside of your comfort zone. For example, Frank Schwindel of the Chicago Cubs is a 29-year-old who was taken in the 18th round of the 2013 Amateur draft. His MiLB performance is a mixed bag and he was exposed to the Rule V Draft twice without being selected. Still, it's hard to ignore his .338/.383/.655 triple-slash line with 11 HR in just 149 PAs on the season.

Schwindel is currently rostered in 62% of Yahoo! leagues, so you can roster him for free in four out of every 10 cases. Here is a closer look at what you can expect him to do for your team.

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What He's Doing

Schwindel is doing a lot of things right in his first taste of big-league action. For example, his 42.3 FB% suggests a strong ability to elevate the ball, which pairs nicely with his 23.4% HR/FB. He's also making solid contact, averaging 92.6 mph of airborne exit velocity and 87.3 mph on ground balls. If you prefer to look at max exit velocity, Schwindel looks even better with a 112.5 mph mark despite only having a quarter of a season at the MLB level.

Schwindel has been shifted in 46 of 100 opportunities, and his .239 average against it is considerably lower than his .463 mark without it. That said, the shift shouldn't be too big of an obstacle for him to overcome. His 50 Pull% on grounders is very low, after all. He's also pulling an impressive 31.9% of his fly balls, making it easier for him to find the bleachers with middling exit velocity numbers.

Unfortunately, there are several red flags in his profile as well. His 9.9% rate of Brls/BBE is a little lower than you might expect given the rest of his numbers. His 39.5% chase rate is substantially higher than you'd like, so his 6.7 BB% is more likely to go down than up. Likewise, his 12.4 SwStr% doesn't really support his 18.8 K%. His game plan is to put something in play before he has an opportunity to strikeout, an approach that can quickly fall apart. Just ask former Cub Javy Baez.

MiLB: Schwindel's Odyssey

Schwindel doesn't have much MLB history to work with, but he has an extensive minor league resume to consider. He first cracked the High Minors in 2015 for the Royals organization, slashing .212/.224/.324 with four homers over 174 PAs. His .246 BABIP was bad, his 1.1 BB% was worse, and his 21.3 K% wasn't strong enough to make up for either. Schwindel returned to the level in 2016, hitting a better .270/.301/.446 with 20 long balls over 485 PAs. His BB% more than tripled to 3.7% while his BABIP rose to .289, but neither number stands out. He did get his strikeouts under control with a 17.7 K%.

Schwindel finally enjoyed a favorable season at Double-A in 2017, slashing .350/.374/.577 with six homers in 147 PAs. His BB% rose to a still-mediocre 4.1%, but he virtually never struck out with an 11.6 K%. His BABIP also rose to .359, earning him a promotion to Triple-A. Schwindel's plate discipline numbers regressed to a 2.5 BB% and 16.7 K% at the higher level, but he still hit a strong .321/.340/.528 with 17 HR in 406 PAs. Again, a strong .353 BABIP was at the root of his performance.

Schwindel enjoyed another solid campaign in 2018, hitting .286/.336/.506 with 24 homers over 556 PAs. His BABIP fell to .290, but he made up for it with a 6.1 BB% and 12.8 K%. 2019 went the other way however, as Schwindel hit just .186/.237/.286 with a homer in 76 PAs. He hit .067 in a brief trial with the Royals and was designated for assignment, landing in the Detroit system.

The Tigers assigned him to A-Advanced, Double-A, and Triple-A over the rest of the season. He didn't hit very well at the Double-A level, producing a .257/.309/.392 line with five homers in 188 PAs. He took advantage of the nitro-charged baseball at Triple-A though, hitting .327/.361/.628 with nine homers in 119 PAs. Predictably, his .329 BABIP at Triple-A was better than his .275 mark at Double-A. His plate discipline metrics were virtually identical at both levels, with a 5 BB% and 16 K% at Triple-A and 5.9% and 14.4% at Double-A.

Schwindel didn't play any games in 2020 due to the pandemic and landed in the Oakland system for 2021. He had another strong performance at Triple-A, slashing .317/.362/.630 with 16 HR over 207 PAs before being summoned to the A's. He hit a HR in his first PA with the club but was designated for assignment after hitting just .150, ultimately heading to the Cubs. Chicago only gave him 39 Triple-A PAs before calling him up to replace Anthony Rizzo on the big-league roster.

It's an extensive track record, and it tells us that Schwindel has decent pop and is otherwise dependent on his BABIP. His LD% was generally below-average on the farm, so he's not using it to sustain strong BABIPs. His IFFB% numbers were also generally high, removing another means by which BABIP can be sustained. His SwStr% hovered between 11-13% as well, so it was his aggressive approach that led to low strikeout totals as opposed to a discerning eye. Scouts don't like his defense either, so it's easy to see why Schwindel never got an extended opportunity before.

The Verdict

Fantasy managers don't care about defense, so one of the biggest flaws in Schwindel's game is instantly nullified. He may not be able to sustain his .360 BABIP long-term, but his .282 xBA and .500 xSLG are both strong enough to help fantasy teams even if they represent substantial regression from his current statistics. He's also cemented himself as the two-hole hitter in Chicago's revamped lineup, giving him plenty of opportunities to compile counting stats.

The play here is to ride the hot streak as long as it lasts. You don't want to invest a significant amount of resources for 2022 and beyond, but Schwindel is a Champ for managers looking for average and home runs down the stretch. However, his value takes a hit in OBP formats.

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