RADIO
Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of three running backs from the start of May and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running back risers.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Running Backs - ADP Risers
Tevin Coleman, New York Jets
We have had literally no news coming out of the Jets' camp with regards to the squad rushers. We have had, though, updates on rookie QB Zach Wilson, some wideouts like Jamison Crowder (staying in town), Corey Davis (missing some practices), rookie Elijah Moore (touchdown-catching machine), and some other players. Nothing about rushers, though.
The fact that the Jets drafted an RB in Michael Carter this past draft--with a fourth-round pick--had us thinking about a great opportunity for the rook heading into 2021. The Jets, though, also feature Ty Johnson (they traded for him last year) and Tevin Coleman in their roster, after signing the latter as a free agent this very summer. Again, no news related to Carter have come out of training camp, but Coleman's ADP has been rising steadily for the past few weeks since the start of June. A 43-position bump up comes attached to Coleman's name these days, with his ADP already breaking the 200 mark.
First things first: Coleman comes with injury concerns after playing only eight games last season. Coleman's upside isn't at the level of a league-winning rusher, of course, but the Jets' backfield is still as open as it's ever gotten. Coleman was always a bargain to my eyes and even this monster 3+ round bump in his ADP (12-team leagues) still has him as a very valuable pick for those trying to fill their RB corps late in drafts.
PFF has a projection of 139+ PPR points in 2021. That would have Coleman finishing the season as the RB34, a borderline RB3 and weekly FLEX play for those who get him. That's absolutely insane considering Coleman's ADP of RB55. Only three other RBs have a positive ROI projection right now: David Johnson, Devin Singletary, and James White. Coleman has the lowest ADP of those four, and the third-highest projection among them.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
The Bears have stayed quiet through their camp when it comes to the running back corps. QB Justin Fields and tagged WR Allen Robinson are getting all of the headlines. That hasn't meant fantasy GMs have forgotten about the now under-the-radar Tarik Cohen, who could only play three games last season after getting injured for the remainder of it. You only need to know one thing about Cohen: he's got some receiving chops.
You know about the Konami Code, which comes down to quarterbacks with rushing prowess. There is also the Nintendo Code (?) which says that pass-catching running backs are ones who can truly make the difference for fantasy GMs. Well, that might not be the case in standard leagues, but it definitely can be considered a serious part of every PPR-draft strategy. And Cohen is right in the sweet spot. Nobody is going to outscore David Montgomery in 2021 among Bears' rushers, of course, but Cohen has everything to put up another great season to the tune of an RB3/RB4 finish thanks, mostly, to his receiving stats.
Cohen is entering his fifth year as a pro and excluding last season, he had put up four straight campaigns averaging at least 9.4 FPPG. He looked like a true hit in his sophomore season, racking up 233.9 PPR points (RB11), but he came down to earth in 2019 with an RB27 finish and only 163.9 FP. He hopes to bounce back while playing the full 2021 season.
Even having a very clear RB2 role in Chicago behind Montgomery, PFF still projects Cohen to get targeted 52 times in 2021 (18th-most among all RBs) while finishing as the RB50 over the season. With an ADP of RB50 at the time of this writing, the ROI sits at a square 1.00 at the position, but only 0.83 if we consider all players (he's projected to an overall 195th finish in PPR leagues). That means that Cohen, right now and if his current ADP-rising trends stay up, is getting into "fade" territory. I will always bet on pass-catching backs, but Cohen is starting to get too rich for my blood.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
A couple of weeks before reaching June, Lions OC Anthony Lynn declared that he would call Williams a "classic 'A' back". Take that for what you want, but it all looked like Williams (free-agent signing by Detroit this offseason) was going to make things tough for D'Andre Swift and build a 50/50 backfield. In a surprising twist, Detroit got into the Todd Gurley sweepstakes, and even more surprising was to hear Swift saying that he was all-in on adding Gurley to an already-crowded backfield. What the hell was going on?
As things stand, Swift is still the RB1 followed by Williams in the pecking order as RB2. Gurley, though, could still end up on the Lions' roster and thus make things murkier when it comes to roles and opportunities. If you look at the ADP evolution chart above, you can clearly see all of those storylines developing and reflected in it. Steady rise up to the start of June, and then a slow bump down that keeps ongoing.
Williams was able to raise his ADP from around 150 to nearly 115 in two weeks thanks to Lynn's comments and he has stayed above the 120-ADP waters since then. That can change quickly, though, with the outside chance of Jamaal plummeting back to his early-days 150 ADP if Gurley is actually signing with Detroit. Jamaal projects to an RB44 finish, yet his ADP of RB42 is already higher than PFF's projection. I would need a really steep fall in ADP to consider drafting Williams for 2021 with Swift already in town--let alone if Gurley is added to the equation.
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