Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 7

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

It was another exciting week in major league baseball, which brings an overabundance of surprising starts around the league. This week we're looking at a pair of veterans who were considered top-30 starting pitchers in their heyday, but injuries have resulted in quite a fall from grace. We're also looking at an emerging left-hander who's had a few impressive starts this season.

David Peterson of the Mets continued his perplexing 2021 season with another gem against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, while Rich Hill gave those Rays a dominant start of his own the day before. Garrett Richards continued to improve for Boston this week, allowing zero runs over six innings against Oakland.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 05/17/2021.

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David Peterson, New York Mets

11% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 26 IP, 5.54 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 2.9 K/BB ratio

05/14 @ TB: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Peterson went toe-to-toe with Tyler Glasnow on Friday, and while he wasn’t quite as dominant as the Tampa Bay ace, Peterson was no slouch himself in an exciting matchup. He had the longest start of his career at 7.1 IP, fanned nine Rays, and put up his third quality start of the season. Not only was this Peterson’s third quality start, but it was his third eye-popping start of the season and continues a trend of alternating good and bad starts for Peterson. Certainly there must be some level of big league talent in this left arm for Peterson to continue shredding lineups on a semi-regular basis, but is there potential for more consistency?

In many ways, Peterson is the classic mid-2010s Mets pitching prospect. He’s big, listed at 6’6” and 240 pounds, and his best pitch is a wipeout left-to-right slider that can be used effectively against hitters from both sides of the plate. His fastball velocity is a little underwhelming at 92.4 MPH, and even more underwhelming in the spin rate department, with Peterson averaging just 2086 RPM on his four-seamer, making him 169^th out of 193 qualified pitchers in spin rate as of writing this. Despite all the hype around spin, a low fastball spin rate isn’t the end of the world for a pitcher, as many successful starters such as Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ian Anderson are near the bottom of the league. However, the raw measurables on Peterson’s fastball aren’t in his favor. He splits his fastball usage evenly between a four-seamer and a two-seamer, using each about 30% of the time. He rounds out his repertoire with a changeup used exclusively on right-handed batters, a pitch that won’t ever be GIF-able on Twitter, but it has done it’s job thus far in 2021.

The slider was Peterson’s most effective pitch in this outing, netting him six of his 11 swinging strikes for a 60% whiff rate. The slider has been the story for Peterson in all of his strikeout-heavy starts, as he boasts a 20.1% SwStr rate and 43.8% chase rate with his slider this season. In games this season where Peterson has used his slider at least 20% of the time, he has a 13.0 K/9 rate, but in games where he’s used it less than 20% of the time, his strikeout rate is nearly halved at a pedestrian 6.8 K/9. We’re dealing with just a seven start sample here, but early signs indicate to strong strikeout upside for Peterson when incorporating his slider more often. This is a pretty important pitch for Peterson's success, so let's take a look at a few from this start.

Those are some dirty pitches, and they got Peterson out of a bases loaded jam during his most stressful part of this outing.

One fact that must be acknowledged is that three of the four games where Peterson used his slider more than 20% of the time came against the Phillies. The other came against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies have the third-highest team strikeout rate in the league, while the Rays have the second-highest. It’s possible this was a game plan by Peterson and the Mets to use more breaking balls against vulnerable lineups, but considering how effective it’s been, one would think Peterson would starting using the pitch more often. Then again, this is the Mets, so we can never assume common sense will prevail.

As fun as it is to take shots at the Mets from my comfy glass house as a Brewers fan, there might be a good reason on paper why they’d be hesitant to have Peterson start throwing his slider more often, and that’s the bottom-line results. The strikeouts are there with the pitch, which us fantasy players love, but when they make contact, batters have hit .306 against the pitch with a .472 SLG. The 15-degree average launch angle against is in the Goldilocks zone for hitters, which is why batters have a 28.6% line draft rate and a whopping .500 BABIP against the pitch this season. Peterson may be afraid to throw the pitch because half the time batters make contact it falls for a hit. These numbers are quite divergent from Peterson’s previous results with the pitch. Last season batters his just .119 with a .254 SLG against Peterson’s slider, even with an 18-degree average launch angle. One concerning difference between this season and last is Peterson’s 5-degree increase in average exit velocity against. Exit velocity is up this season due to the lighter ball used by MLB, but not to this extent. Peterson’s zone rate with the slider is up by 5% and his zone contact rate is up by 5.5% this season, so perhaps he’s been more mistake-prone with the pitch. Given last season’s results, his .251 xBA against the slider, and the downright nastiness of the slider, I’m confident Peterson’s slider will see better results on balls-in-play.

Peterson’s looks like it can be a bona fide strikeout pitch, but the bigger question with him is whether his fastball can play in the majors. As mentioned earlier, he has average velocity for a left-hander and one of the lowest spin rates among qualified starters, but despite middling measurables, Peterson has gotten solid results with both fastballs this season. His sinker has held opponents to a .208 AVG and an incredible 72.4% ground ball rate. Peterson has two inches of break above league average with the sinker and has done a good job of keeping it below the hitter’s beltline thus far, helping him achieve such a gaudy ground ball rate. The good times may not last, as Peterson had similar location last season but got crushed for a .368 AVG and had just a 48% groundball rate with the pitch, but hopefully the results land someone in the middle of those two extremes.

Peterson’s four-seam fastball is on the other end of the spectrum, acting as a fly ball machine this season. Hitters have a 29-degree average launch angle against Peterson’s four-seamer, including a 33.3% infield flyball rate, which is the best ball-in-play outcome a pitcher can hope for sans a double play grounder, which is situation dependent. As Uncle Ben told Peter, with great fly ball rates come great home run probability. Peterson has served up three home runs on his four-seamer thus far, including a 117.3 MPH, 450-foot upper deck moonshot from Mike Zunino in this start. It doesn’t have much fantasy relevance to Peterson by itself, but I’m going to put a video of the homer below, because man, it’s a beauty.

This was the third-hardest hit ball this season at 117.3 MPH, and it had an xBA of 1.000. There was literally zero probability that ball wouldn’t be a hit, although the Statcast formula must not take into account the very real possibility of it clanking off the famous Tropicana Field catwalks. If that ball was hit by Shohei Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton it would be all over MLB.com and ESPN, but Zunino got nary a mention for that monster dong. Okay, digression over, back to Mr. Peterson.

Batters also have a .567 SLG and a .623 xSLG against Peterson’s four-seam fastball this year, suggesting that Peterson has earned all the troubles he’s had with the pitch. Peterson has never had home run issues in his professional career. In fact, he had a 0.58 HR/9 throughout all levels prior to 2021, and now has a 1.62 HR/9. If he could recapture previous success in preventing long balls, Peterson’s ERA would be a lot closer to his stellar 3.14 xFIP.

Something to be concerned with on both Peterson’s four-seamer and sinker is just how hard batters hit the pitches, as both offerings have an average exit velocity against that is greater than 90 MPH. Overall, batters have an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity against Peterson this year, which is a big contributor to his .261 xBA and .460 xBACON. This explains his volatility well because when Peterson is on batters can’t touch him, but when batters make contact, they pulverize the ball. Peterson is still a work-in-progress, but I think he could eventually become a consistent and effective big league starter, though it may not be fully realized this season.

Verdict:

Peterson’s slider looks like it can be a legitimate strikeout pitch, and he’s shown some promise with his ability to induce low-probability hits like grounders and infield fly balls with his fastballs. Batters have punished mistakes and demolished pitches in the zone, leading to the up-and-down pattern we’ve seen from Peterson this season. Long term, I think he could be a solid major league caliber starting pitcher, though this season I would only use him in strong matchups, especially against strikeout-prone teams. Peterson has feasted on those matchups in 2021. The key to success for him is increased slider usage, and the more he uses it, the more strikeouts he’s going to rack up. For 2021 I think he’s best used as a streamer or spot starter, and I’m not sure he’ll be in the Mets’ rotation all season. Once deGrom, Syndergaard, and Carrasco are all healthy, there won’t be room for Peterson. The chances of all five Mets starters being healthy at any given time is slim, but I think their ideal rotation does not include Peterson. He’s a streamer for this season, and if he shows improvements, an early 2022 sleeper.

Rich Hill, Tampa Bay Rays

21% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 31.1 IP, 5.17 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 3.2 K/BB ratio

05/13 vs. NYY: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K

Hill flexed his old-man-strength on Thursday, fanning nine Yankees over six innings and posting his third-straight scoreless start. Not bad for a pitcher who made his debut during the George W. Bush administration. After a rocky start to the season that had Rich looking over-the-Hill, the southpaw has been firing on all cylinders, posting a 0.83 ERA over his last four starts. Despite his struggles, Hill has proven to be an extremely effective pitcher when healthy, posting a 3.02 ERA and 3.6 K/BB ratio since he resurgence in 2015. Healthy has always been a struggle for Hill. Even with his health and age concerns, Hill may have been overlooked heading into the 2021 season given his track record, and maybe the curve ball artist we’ve come to know over the latter-half of the 2010s can reemerge in Tampa Bay.

I referred to Hill as a curve ball artist, and there’s really no better way to describe his pitching style. Hill has used multiple variations of his curve ball, such as a harder sweeping curve, or a slow curve, or a looping lollipop curve, or lowering his arm slot with the curve ball to keep batters off balance and generate above average whiffs with the pitch. I stumbled on a YouTube video while researching this article that I highly recommend checking it out if you want to see how Hill changes his curve ball, It’s marvelous. He uses the pitch over 40% of the time, and the pitch has a whopping 7 inches of break above the league average. The pitch has been effective too, because since 2015 (I’m going to use Hill’s numbers since 2015 versus his career numbers since he was a very different pitcher prior to his 2015-2016 breakout), batters are hitting just .204 with an .093 ISO and a 10.87% SwStr rate against Hill’s curve ball. Outside of his curve ball, Hill uses a four-seam fastball that putters in at just 88.6 MPH, and uses the rare cutter at 84 MPH. Pitch tracking will mark the occasional slider for Hill, but that is closer to curve ball variant than a true slider when used.

Hill’s curve ball is obviously the centerpiece of his entire game, and the biggest question should be whether the pitch is still up to snuff. From a metrics and performance perspective, it has been in 2021. Hill’s spin rate is still at an impressive 2816 RPM, which is down about 100 RPM from its 2019 peak but is still among the best in the league and in line with his career spin rate. Velocity isn’t as important with a curve ball, but the pitch still comes in at a blistering 73 MPH, which is about a tick less on the gun that he was throwing 2-3 years ago. His curve ball swinging strike rate is 13.1% this season, which would actually be his highest as a starting pitcher. That could say more about the state of baseball in 2021 than Hill, but regardless, he’s getting whiffs with the pitch.

Hill’s curve ball has been good for more than whiffs though, as batters have a meager 86.4 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch, along with a 59.6% ground ball rate. That poor quality of contact has lead to a .180 AVG and a .215 xBA against the curve ball this season. We expect a breaking ball to prevent hits at this level, but since Hill uses it so often, he also has a .215 xBA and .362 xSLG overall on the year.

The curve ball looks like it can still hang, but what about the rest of Hill’s game? His success is so tied to the curve ball that it’s easy to overlook the other aspects of his pitching approach. His 88.6 MPH fastball velocity is down from its peak of 90.3 MPH, but it’s nearly a full MPH higher than it was last season. For how slow Hill’s fastball is, batters haven’t had too much success against the pitch. Opponents are hitting .255 against the pitch this season along with a .225 xBA and a .490 SLG. These results are similar to past seasons for Hill, though I question whether he’ll meet the .225 xBA anytime this season. Hill’s fastball has been crushed for a 91.8 MPH average exit velocity and has a 29% line drive this year. That is a dangerous combination, so I wouldn’t bank on Hill reducing hits or power against his fastball anytime soon. His fastball has gotten decent results relative to the suspect velocity, average exit velocity, and launch angle numbers in the past  so I don’t think he’s due for a pounding. However, I also don’t think he’s due for the improvements Statcast suggests are possible.

Hill has quietly been dominant over the past six season when he's not on the injured list, and even though he had a down year in 2020, it still looks like Hill is capable of producing effective results when healthy. His curve ball is still a dangerous weapon, and as long as Hill’s got that, he’s got a chance to be relevant. He’s an add in all but the shallowest of leagues, and worth holding until he winds up on the IL.

Verdict:

Perhaps Hill was overlooked heading into 2021. Many players had poor 2020 seasons washed away with excuses about the pandemic shortened season, but not Hill. It was likely the rampant ageism in fantasy baseball, with fantasy players not wanting to be the one left holding the bag when a veteran player is finally toast. Hill looks like he could be a solid starter when healthy, and worthy of an add in 12-team or deeper leagues where available. His curve ball is just as effective as ever, and he does just enough with his fastball to ward off disaster. His next start comes Wednesday at Baltimore, and I think he's a fine start in that outing. Following that, he's lined up for a two-start week against Kansas City and Philadelphia at home, which is a great spot to deploy the savvy veteran.

Garrett Richards, Boston Red Sox

18% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 35.2 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.3 K/BB ratio

05/13 vs. OAK: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Richards got off to a shaky start this season, but has been rolling for Boston as of late, posting a 2.16 ERA and 9.4 K/9 over his last four starts, allowing one run or fewer in three of those four. Once considered an ace back in his days with the Angels, a plethora of elbow issues derailed the right-hander’s career. Richards pitched 207.1 innings in the 2017 season, but has only pitched 240.1 innings in the six seasons since. Things have been especially bad for Richards over the last two years as he posted a 4.65 ERA and 4.49 FIP between 2019-2020 with San Diego. The pitching-needy Red Sox took a gamble on the talented-but-fragile hurler, and as of late it’s looking like the move will pay off. The Red Sox may have been willing to roll the dice on Richards, but should you?

Richards uses a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, and a curve ball. The curve ball is perhaps Richards’s most famous pitch due to its exceptional spin rate. Richard’s curve ball spins at an unreal 3273 RPM, which is the highest spin rate of any pitch in major league baseball. Despite the elite spin rate, Richards has historically eschewed his curve ball in favor of his fastball and slider. The fastball is a mid-90s heater that also has above average (though not elite) spin rate. While the slider is a sharp, hard breaker that plays well with his slower spinning curve ball. It’s a classic starter’s repertoire, and on paper Richards should be able to work effectively, but in recent years he’s been unable to find consistent success. Fortunately, it looks like Richards has made some tweaks to his approach that could help him be more consistent.

As mentioned above, Richard’s has scarcely used his curve over the last few seasons despite it’s unique and extraordinary measurables. Richards only used the pitch 7.5% of the time last season, and has only used it 6.5% of the time over his career. That has changed this season, as Richards has thrown his curve ball 19.1% of the time, by far a career high. It’s a wonder why Richards didn’t use the pitch more often in the past as batters have just a .139 AVG and .397 OPS against the pitch all time. It’s possible the pitch is especially taxing on Richards’s elbow, but it’s hard to fathom that Richards would forgo using such an effective weapon, especially given his previous struggles.

Richards may have been sick of taking his lumps because his curve ball usage has really ramped up over his hot stretch. Richards has thrown the pitch over 20% of the time in his last four starts, which represents a shift for him. He’s also upped his slider usage over his last four starts and is throwing his fastball under 50% of the time. This change is probably a good thing for Richards because opponents are hitting .308 against the fastball this season, but are hitting .250 against the slider and .115 against the curve ball. We’ve seen numerous pitchers find success by increasing the use of breaking balls and secondary pitches and it looks like Richards could be heading down the same path.

I’ve highlighted Richards’s curve ball spin rate, but his slider is no slouch either. With an average of 2856 RPM, Richards’s slider has the third-most spin among qualified starting pitchers, behind just Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler and slightly ahead of Tyler Glasnow. That’s not bad company to be in, even if Richards is clearly a few tiers below those pitchers in the fantasy world. Richards’s slider is his best strikeout pitch with a 13.9% swinging strike rate this season and he does have a .208 xBA with the pitch compared to its .250 actual batting average, so there’s reason to believe the results can get even better for Richards going forward. Opponents also have a .184 AVG all time against the slider, strengthening the case for better days ahead.

The changes in pitch mix Richards has made are encouraging, but he’s also done another exciting thing over his hot streak, which is raise his fastball velocity. Richards has thrown his fastball in the mid-90s in previous seasons, but was throwing around 93 MPH in his first few starts. The velocity is trending upwards, and he averaged 95.1 MPH with his fastball in this start, his highest average of the season. Considering Richards also has above average spin with his fastball, if he can regain past velocity, it would create a deadly combination for opposing hitters.

Richards is undeniably a talented pitcher from a raw physical perspective, but injuries and control issues have hampered his career for the last half-decade. Richards may not have the career numbers he should, but this is still a potent arm that should be effective more often than not. Given his propensity for blow-up starts, I’m not ready to use him against tough lineups. However, Richards has definitely established himself enough to be usable against weak and neutral matchups.

Verdict:

Despite all the injuries, setbacks, and control issues, the phenomenal spin rate and above average velocity are still there for Richards. He’s begun using his curve ball and slider more often and throwing his fastball less, a trend that should help Richards find better success on the mound. I like the changes he’s made over the last four starts, and with his roster percentage relatively low, I think now is a good time to acquire him on the cheap. Richards could potentially be a sub-4 ERA pitcher with a good chance at scooping up wins with a powerful Boston lineup supporting him. His next start is lineup up against the Blue Jays in Buffalo, and I’d avoid him there due to the strength of the lineup and the hitter-friendly ballpark in Buffalo. I still like him as a long term add in 12-team or deeper leagues.

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