January 26, 2021

Left-hander Tarik Skubal made his debut in 2020 as a future core component of an intriguing young rotation. In 32 innings, Skubal notched a 27.6% strikeout rate while pitching to an underwhelming 5.63 ERA and 4.81 xFIP. Although he's often overshadowed by the big-name pitching prospects on his own team, Skubal has been a dynamic minor league pitcher, compiling a 2.11 ERA, .195 batting average against, 0.99 WHIP, and 212 strikeouts across 145 career minor league innings. With a fastball that can touch 98, a sharp two-plane slider, and a solid change-up, Skubal has all the makings of a mid-rotation starter. However, while he didn't allow an egregious amount of contact in 2020 (.231 average against), he allowed tons of hard contact. His 10.7% barrel rate was way over league average, as was the .462 xSLG and 39.3% Hard Hit %. However, there is some cause for optimism. Skubal was able to miss bats. His fastball, changeup, and slider all registered higher than a 25% whiff rate, and his 12.9% SwStr% would have tied him with Trevor Bauer for 14th in the league. Skubal's slider appeared to be his most successful pitch, but he threw it only 15.7% of the time, so increasing his usage there could help him keep the K% up and drive down the hard contact. Also, as he gets more comfortable at the major league level, I expect him to have a better feel for the strike zone and allow less hard contact. I think the high strikeout rate will be here to stay, which means you could be looking at a pitcher in a strong pitcher's park who is able to notch an ERA around 4.5 with around 10 K/9 and a WHIP around 1.2. With those numbers, I like him at his current 295 ADP and would take him over Justus Sheffield and Kwang Hyun Kim, who are both going two rounds or more before him.--Eric Samulski