AL Outfielders Set to Bust in 2021

January 30, 2021

Matt Musico identifies three American League outfielders who could be busts in 2021 fantasy baseball. These OF are overvalued at their current ADP.

While there are plenty of MLB free agents who still need a home, the return of baseball for 2021 is much closer than it currently feels. As long as nothing goes off the rails over the next few weeks, there will be big-league players taking the field at Spring Training complexes in Florida and Arizona in less than a month. With that comes one of the best times of the year: fantasy baseball draft time.

Following an abbreviated 60-game regular season in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, tracking the progress of players will be crucial to see if certain trends from last year can continue. It can sometimes feel impossible to avoid eventual fantasy baseball busts during the course of a draft, but that's the risk we all take. There are tons of intriguing outfielders to choose from in the American League this year, but there are a handful who appear to be overvalued at this point in the winter.

This is not to say the following three outfielders will crash and burn in 2021. It's certainly possible they'll have a strong year for their respective teams and fantasy baseball owners. All things considered, though, they're not worth the risk at their current ADP.

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Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 35.33

The 2020 season was the epitome of a roller coaster for Luis Robert when it came to his personal performance. On one hand, he flashed his ability to absolutely punish baseballs...

And, on the other hand, bombs like this can overshadow the rough finish he endured. Through August 31st, he was humming right along with a .298/10/24/22/4 line after 133 plate appearances. But over his final 94 regular-season trips to the plate, those numbers dropped to .136/1/7/11/5. His wRC+ went from an uber-healthy 157 to an uber-anemic 21 between those two periods of time.

He could show off the incredible power but couldn't stay consistent -- his maximum exit velocity of 115.8 mph was among the top-10 in baseball last year, yet his 87.9 mph average barely snuck into the top 100. He did many impressive things as a 23-year-old rookie and the future looks bright, but it was just a lot of hit-or-miss from him.

Robert wasn't afraid of being aggressive in the strike zone, as his 82.2% swing rate on strikes was the third-highest in baseball. Unfortunately, he also paired that with the league's fourth-highest chase rate (43.1%) and the highest swinging-strike rate (22.1%). One area he'll look to improve in 2021 is his performance against four-seam fastballs, which was the most common pitch he saw last year. Against that offering, he slashed just .174/.288/.290 with a 35.0% strikeout rate, just two of his 11 total homers, and a 77 wRC+.

The young outfielder is getting taken at his current ADP because of his potential, which is understandable. When things are humming along like they were through August of last year, life was good. He's still adjusting to the big leagues, though, and at this point in drafts, you want studs with a proven track record of consistent success to anchor your club.

Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 70.90

After experiencing two straight seasons of at least 20 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2018-19, it appeared that Teoscar Hernandez took a step forward during his age-27 campaign. His 16 homers were among the league leaders, while his .289 ISO, .919 OPS, and 143 wRC+ all reached career-high heights through 207 plate appearances.

His .348 BABIP seems like an unsustainable rise after looking at the past two years (.313 in '18, .293 in '19), but it was justified by other areas of his batted-ball profile. Hernandez posted a 25.8% line-drive rate, which ranked among the top-15 in baseball, and paired that with a 48.8% hard-hit rate, which was the league's third-highest mark. While his average launch angle remained at 15.3 degrees, the righty's average exit velocity jumped from 91.2 to 93.3 mph, as did his barrel percentage, which went from 11.3% to 17.8%.

So, uh, why exactly does he have the potential to disappoint in 2021? What's concerning is that his plate discipline got noticeably worse. Sure, his strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, but it still settled in at 30.4%, and his walk rate decreased from 9.7% to 6.8%. This wasn't just because of a shortened season and small sample sizes, either. Hernandez's chase rate rose three percentage points, his swing rate on strikes dropped nearly 10 percentage points, and his overall contact rate went from 68.9% in 2019 to 66.2% in 2020.

Furthermore, his drop in strikeout rate isn't as encouraging because his swinging-strike rate jumped from 14.7% to 15.7% over that same period of time. He can be a solid contributor in 2021, but recent performance may be inflating his price without the foundation of a shift in plate approach to make it appear sustainable for the long haul.

Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 124.74

Kyle Lewis' American League Rookie of the Year campaign was bolstered by a tremendous start before withstanding a rough finish. The 25-year-old was a stud through the first half, posting a .368/7/19/24/2 line through 125 plate appearances. These numbers all dropped significantly over his final 117 trips to the plate, settling in at .150/4/9/13/3.

Although the outfielder's hard-hit rate jumped from 27.8% to 39.7% over this period of time, his line drive rate took a hit, going from 24.1% to 15.5%. Most of that difference went to his fly ball rate, but it was accompanied by an eight-percentage-point rise in infield fly rate and a 12-percentage-point drop in home run per fly ball rate. It was also eye-opening to see his strikeout rate leap from 22.4% to 36.8% over this time.

It's easy to look at his cup of coffee in the big leagues during 2019 along with his powerful start to 2020 and get hypnotized by the homers (13 over his first 200 plate appearances), but Lewis isn't arriving in Seattle with a reputation for hitting lots of baseballs over outfield walls. It's not as if he can't mature into a consistent home-run hitter, but it's also not going to happen overnight. The most dingers he slugged at any minor-league stop before debuting in 2019 was in Double-A during that same season (11). He'll also need to pull fly balls more often moving forward to keep racking up the dingers. In 2020, he pulled just 16.0% of his fly balls.

What's he's done with the Mariners so far has been impressive, but let's not forget Lewis still has less than a full year's worth of big-league plate appearances under his belt. There are adjustments he'll need to make along the way as opposing pitchers figure out ways to limit his success, which we saw throughout the second half of last season.

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