January 23, 2021

After a solid rookie season in 2019, Means was a popular late-round option coming into drafts for the 2020 season. There was even more hype around him after his fastball velocity ticked up greatly to around 93 miles-per-hour. Alas, most of the hype died down after he got shelled in the first month of the season, with an ERA of 8.59 through his first five starts. He did, however, pitch much better to close the season out, as he had a 2.48 ERA in his final five starts. His strikeout rate spiked massively down the stretch, with a 27.9% strikeout rate in September compared to just 17% in August. Additionally, his fastball became a lot less hittable, with a .277 wOBA on contact allowed on the pitch in September compared to .593 in August. Additionally, hitters barreled up his fastball at a minuscule 3.7% rate in September, a stark difference from the 27.3% clip in the prior month. The question then becomes who is the real Means? Is he more like the pitcher we saw in August that was among the game's worst, or the one that was dominant down the stretch? His inconsistencies are baked into his current ADP, currently around pick 215. With such a low ADP, it should worth it to find out because if the bump in velocity and strikeouts are here to stay, he could be one of the biggest bargains in drafts this season.--mwallach