Ramon Laureano 2021 Outlook: Modest Ceiling Four-Category Outfielder
4 years agoRamon Laureano came off a strong 2019 campaign with a subpar 2020 season. Although it was a small sample size of 222 plate appearances, Laureano posted an underwhelming .213/.338/.366 line with six home runs and 25 RBI. Additionally, Laureano's stolen base output all but disappeared in 2020. He swiped just two bases (five extrapolated over a full 162-game season) supported by a drop in speed metrics including a continued notable decline in sprint speed which began after the 2018 season. Laureano's low HR production was also supported. He posted a two mph decline in overall exit velocity and a six percent decline in overall hard-hit rate down to 34.4% (27th percentile in MLB). That said, he still posted an impressive 94.2 mph exit velocity on FB/LD, equal to Trent Grisham and Michael Conforto, offering hope for a 2021 HR rebound. Laureano's .213 average was supported by an xBA of .235, though his walk rate did increase by over five percent, making him more attractive in on-base percentage leagues. While the down year in average and HR production can potentially be chalked up to a poor short season, the low stolen base output appears legitimate given his continued decline in speed metrics. With an ADP of 141, managers can take a chance on Laureano, who should now be viewed as a four-category contributor, hoping he can return to his 2019 form in the HR, RBI, and average categories. A modest 20 HR ceiling to go with a batting average in the .240-.260 range is a reasonable expectation for Laureano in 2021.