RADIO
Christian Yelich 2021 Outlook: Overpriced After 2020 Slide
4 years agoMilwaukee Brewers superstar Christian Yelich was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2020 fantasy baseball season, slashing just .205/.356/.430 with 12 HR and four steals over 247 PAs after two MVP-caliber campaigns. Part of the problem was likely bad luck, as his average exit velocity was a little bit better than 2019 on both airborne batted balls (97.1 mph vs. 96.7) and grounders (91.5 vs. 90.9). Furthermore, his .250 xBA and .476 xSLG were both better than his actual numbers. Unfortunately, there are also some troubling signs in his profile. Yelich's Swing% fell from 45.2 in 2019 to 34.6% last season, leading to passivity at the plate that sent his K% soaring to 30.8% from 20.3% in 2019. His FB% also slipped back under 30 after a 35.9% mark in his huge 2019, likely playing a role in his rate of Brls/BBE falling from 15.8% in 2019 to 12.1%. His Statcast Sprint Speed also fell to 28.1 ft./sec from 28.7, suggesting that he may not run as often in the future. Yelich is likely to be better in 2021 than he was in 2020, but his ADP of 11.69 may not adequately reflect the risk that his batting average and stolen bases fail to completely rebound.
