December 17, 2020

After a 2019 breakout rookie season, Pete Alonso clubbed 16 home runs, and 35 RBI but posted just a .231/.326/.490 line over 239 plate appearances in 2020. Extrapolated over the course of a full 162-game season, his power totals equaled an impressive 46 HR and 101 RBI. Despite his power, Alonso's low batting average and on-base percentage, the result of a slow start to a short season and poor chase contact numbers, adversely impacted his fantasy value. Alonso's advanced metrics reveal that he did finish with an overall launch angle, overall exit velocity, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and walk rate which were all close to his 2019 totals. This suggests Alonso rectified early-season timing issues. That said, an inability to consistently put balls outside the zone into play exacerbated his slow start by keeping his batting average and OBP down. Alonso's chase contact percentage was only 47.8%. This was well below his 2019 58.3% chase contact percentage and the MLB league average of 59.4%. If Alonso can positively regress toward the chase contact MLB average, we should see positive regression in batting average and OBP. With (hopefully) a full spring training and season to work with for 2021, a line of around .250/.340/.540, between his breakout 2019 and mediocre 2020, is a very reasonable and tempered expectation. Additionally, Alonso is a safe bet to again provide managers with 45-to-50 HR and over 100 RBI, particularly with the Mets bolstering their lineup with the addition of All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and catcher James McCann. With a current ADP of 60.24, Alonso is appropriately being drafted as the fifth or sixth first baseman off of boards.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller