4 years agoMilwaukee Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes was a forgotten asset after his 2019 campaign when he posted an 8.82 ERA in 49 innings. The main cause for that catastrophe was the long ball. He gave up 3.1 home runs per nine innings, one of the highest rates you will ever see. Despite that, the upside lingered and he generated tons of strikeouts (29.8 K%). Burnes entered 2020 as a wildly different pitcher, abandoning the four-seamer, taking it from 52.5% usage to 2.5% and introducing a cutter/sinker combination that made up 65% of his pitch distribution. That change worked out great for him, as he allowed just two home runs all year (59 2/3 innings). Despite the move to more downward-moving fastballs, his ground-ball rate only increased slightly (+1.3%). His sinker over-performed, as it shows a big gap between his opponent's slugging percentage (.406) and xSLG (.585). He also struggled with walks (10% walk rate). All of this makes the 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP he posted seem pretty unconvincing for 2021. His stuff is really good -- 96 mph average on the sinker, +3.5 inches of horizontal movement over the average on his slider -- and he can be counted on to generate tons of strikeouts. However, everything else about him makes his draft price -- an ADP currently in the 50s as the 22nd starting pitcher off the board -- seem like a sucker play.--Jon Anderson