Year-In-Review: Jesse Winker

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker had a 2020 season that, in many ways, reflected the arc of his career. His excellent approach allows him to get on base while also hitting for average and power. However, he also experiences stretches of unproductivity and has battled injuries and inconsistent playing time. This makes him a difficult player to trust for fantasy.

Winker mostly stayed healthy in 2020 and, with the universal DH being implemented, received steady playing time. The overall numbers were good, slashing .255/.388/.544 with 12 home runs, 23 RBI, and 27 runs scored. However, Winker's overall game seemed to shift more towards the "three true outcomes", nearly doubling his home runs from 2019 (in half as many plate-appearances), while posting a 25.1% K% and 15.3% BB% that were both career-highs.

What should fantasy players make of Winker's season and what could it mean for 2021? I'll take a closer look into some particular aspects of Winker's 2020 performance to better understand his numbers, which should help in assessing his potential fantasy value in 2021.

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Riding the Rollercoaster

Winker's performance was respectable on the whole but his fantasy value was markedly inconsistent. While it is expected that players will experience ups and downs over the course of the season, its might be difficult for fantasy managers to trust someone who was essentially un-rosterable in July and September, even if he lit August on fire:

The results may have varied wildly from month to month, but some aspects of his game remained fairly consistent, starting with a career-high walk-rate that was 13.6% in July, 12.2% in August, and 20.6% in September. He also hit the ball harder than he ever has before, with his average exit velocity jumping from 88.6 mph to 91.8 mph, while raising his 41.1% hard-hit rate in 2019 to 49.0% in 2020. But more impressively, the percentage of balls hit in the air (Air%) that were over 100+ mph, jumped from 31.8% in 2019 to 36% in 2020. Combine that with a career-high 13.7% Brl% (4.7% in 2019) and the power surge starts looking more legit.

It was hard for Winker to take full advantage of his increased exit velocities, though, as his aforementioned career-high strikeout-rate stayed consistently high:

However, there is a silver lining in regards to whether Winker can get back to the elite strikeout rates he ran from 2017-19 (17.5%, 13.8%, 15.6%), as his career-high 10.2% SwStr% and career-low 74.4% contact-rate both got closer to his normal as the year went on:

Small Sample Improvements

As previously mentioned, part of Winker's uncertain fantasy value has to do with his struggle to get consistent playing time over the course of his career, particularly against left-handed pitching. To be fair, Winker hadn't done much to deserve otherwise, slashing .176/.295/.248 over his 147 PA vs. LHP prior to 2020, with a .255 wOBA and 52 wRC+. But while it's hard to take too much from just 41 PA, Winker was much improved against lefties in 2020, slashing .265/.390/.500, with two home runs, a .386 wOBA, and 140 wRC+.

Unfortunately, the bump in production came with an even bigger bump in his strikeout-rate, with Winker posting a 31.7% K% versus LHP - over a 15-point increase from the 16.3% K% he had prior to 2020. That sort of struggle is unlikely to garner him many more at-bats versus LHP but given his strong hitting approach, it makes you wonder if Winker could adjust to hit lefties better if given an extended chance.

2021 Outlook

Much like the course of his career, Winker's fantasy value remains murky heading into 2021. If his hitting approach falls into the Three True Outcomes again and some regression occurs towards his career numbers, it would be conceivable to see Winker bat about .260 to .270 with at least 20 HR, a 13% walk rate, and a 19%-20% strikeout rate. The more difficult thing to predict will be Winker's other counting stats, as his RBI totals will depend in part on how many total at-bats he receives. He is a below-average outfielder, so if the universal DH is not adopted in 2021, Winker may again find himself fighting to reach 400 plate appearances.

Winker's very early ADP is currently 206 overall, making him the 55th outfielder off the board. This puts him just ahead of players like Jose Urquidy, J.D. Davis, Brady Singer, Trey Mancini, Andrew Benintendi, Justin Turner, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber. The early 200s seems like a reasonable spot to start considering Winker; his ceiling, while intriguing, is offset by his potentially low floor. Given that some of the players currently being taken after him have shown the ability to be fantasy contributors, I would be more comfortable taking Winker after them at around pick 220, rather than 200-210.

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