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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC on ESPN 15: Munhoz vs. Edgar on 8/22/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
It was always going to be hard to top what came down the last weekend inside the Octagon. Whether it had been Daniel Cormier or the actual retaining-champ Stipe Miocic winning the main event, there was no way the upcoming event will reach the level of two of the best men to ever do it putting on a show. But as you know, the UFC never stops and we're back at it this weekend in Las Vegas, Nevada, inside the UFC Apex once more.
While there are no belts on the line this Saturday we will still have a very tasty card coming our way, headlined by Pedro Munhoz facing former Lightweight champ Frankie Edgar, which should have happened already on UFC 251. It didn't back then--due to COVID issues--, but it's definitely going down this weekend. The main card will feature another previously-scratched bout between LHW Ovince Saint Preux and Alonzo Menifield, with another fight between LHW and a final one at Welterweight closing the four-fight prime-time slate.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC on ESPN 15: Munhoz vs. Edgar on 8/22/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Frankie Edgar, $7200 - vs. Pedro Munhoz
I hadn't been born when Edgar debuted in the UFC. No, that's a joke, but it's close. Edgar debuted in 2007 facing Tyson Griffin and getting a win. He would go on to fight 22 more times, including a seven-bout run in which a belt was on the line and becoming a champ in that span. That was all the way back in 2011, though and Edgar's 2019 record is a not-so-good 0-2, being 2-3 since 2017.
Pedro Munhoz is not new to the promotion, either. His first fight took place in 2014 and he's a much better 4-2 since the start of 2017, although he's also on a losing "streak" of one after eating the L against Aljamain Sterling in June 2019. Edgar is 39, sure, but Munhoz is 34 himself.
Frankie lands around 10 SS/min to Munhoz's 12.8, but the veteran veteran does it on better percentages while absorbing fewer strikes on a per-minute basis. The key here could rest on the grappling game. While Edgar at least tries (0.45 TD/min), Munhoz is not really known for going after takedowns. On top of that, Munhoz is targeted at least once per round and although he's yet to allow a takedown it is probable than on sheer power Edgar can score at least one on Munhoz this Saturday. If Edgar can keep his chin at distance, he has the chance to get the W over the long run. It is not that he can't last that much--he did just a year ago against Holloway--so there's that too. For the ridiculously low price, Edgar makes for a great underdog with some real chances here for fantasy contests.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ovince Saint Preux, $7900 - vs. Alonzo Menifield
The last time we watched OSP inside an octagon--against Ben Rothwell last May--he stepped into it at heavyweight. It didn't go that well for him, as he dropped that one on a decision and he's now back to his natural weight class at LHW. That's where OSP has fought since 2013 with a 5-4 record since the start of 2017.
Menifield only has three fights in the UFC and although he started with a perfect 2-0 record that included two KOs at under four minutes each, he went on to drop his last bout facing Devin Clark last June. Menifield is a power-packed guy, that's for sure. It only took him 8 and 33 SS landed to put his two first opponents to sleep. OSP hasn't been KO'd since November 2017, but I'm not sure he wants to exchange a lot with such a cannoneer.
It is not hard to see what could most-probably happen on this one: 9 out of 13 (69%) fights those two have been part of since 2017 have seen the winner take home some sweet bonus points thanks to early stoppages. There is no way we don't watch a finish here, even with the current UFC trend of putting on boring and slogging shows. I'm betting on some mid-round KO/Submission in which OSP finish the younger Menifield and puts the latter's early UFC career in a little bit of trouble dropping him to 2-2 after Saturday's bout.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marcin Prachnio, $7300 - vs. Mike Rodriguez
None of Prachnio and Rodriguez have yet fought five times inside the Octagon, and they have put together a combined 1-4-1 record. This is a nice battle of losers if we're honest. Prachnio is carrying a horrific 0-2 record that has him fighting for his life here, and he was KO'd in both of those matches. Rodriguez has also been unable to get a W in his last two, and his lone win came all the way back in December 2018. Not the greatest of presentations, am I right?
While Prachnio enters the Octagon with an 0-2 record in the UFC after being KO'd two times... that happened almost than two years ago! We don't have more information about him than those two duds. Mike Rodriguez, though, comes with some middling 1-2-1 record in a UFC career spanning from December 2019 back to April 2018. That's a more recent timespan with two fights--a loss and a draw--in the past 12 months for him, the most recent being a first-round KO against Da Un Jung right before Christmas. Quite the present.
Prachnio is on the verge of things with the UFC and needs to score himself a W here. Prachnio has not been able to show his striking once becoming part of the UFC due to early knockouts, but he showed a solid game prior to the promotion move. Rodriguez, on the other side, seems to like to eat strikes for breakfast absorbing more than 51% of the SS his foes throw his way. I think Prachnio has the upside and ability to get an early finish, as Rodriguez was already KO'd in his last fight barely making it past the first-minute mark.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Takashi Sato, $7500- vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Battle of newcomers and small sample sizes this one. Sato has just three fights inside the Octagon (2-1) debuting back in April 2019, while Rodriguez has two (both wins) with the first one coming this very past February. These two bring some fire to the cage, that's for sure, and both have early-stoppage prowess with three of their four combined wins ending in KO/Submission.
While Rodriguez throws many more SS per minute (18.5 to Sato's 14.9), the truth is that Sato lands almost 66% of them compared to Rodriguez's 46%. The chances of hitting a square one on Rodriguez's chin are just incredibly higher for Sato. Even with that, though, Rodriguez's volume is insane as his last fight proved (he landed 175 of 344 SS over 15 minutes), which should also give him a good floor.
None of these two are getting into the octagon to play grappling games, so it will come down to who hits the right button at the right moment, and I'm banking on Sato's precision at doing so. I predict a third career-KO in favor of Sato here, and surely coming no later than inside the second round.
