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Eli Grabanski analyzes offensive play-calling tendencies of NFC North coaches and breaks down the fantasy football impact for running backs in 2020.
In fantasy football, many of us 'experts' in the field try to take as much data into account before making a conclusion on players. That means looking at things like game tape, the team's offensive line, or their primary playcaller's historical tendencies to utilize a certain position. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically has utilized their running backs.
Today we will look at the NFC North. The division will be bringing back three of the same playcallers as last year: Bears head coach Matt Nagy, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, and Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
The Vikings' Gary Kubiak was promoted to be the team's offensive coordinator after Kevin Stefanski was hired in Cleveland as the head coach. Besides these four coaches, we will also look at Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett just in case they end up getting some opportunities to call plays this year.
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Minnesota Vikings
Primary Playcaller: Gary Kubiak (Offensive Coordinator)
Gary Kubiak is one of the most respected offensive playcallers in the NFL, coaching 349 games as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. He helped guide Kevin Stefanski's offense last year and now gets to step back into the role he's been very successful with, offensive coordinator. One of the most well-known aspects of a Gary Kubiak offense is the effectiveness of the ground game. Here's a good look at the opportunities Kubiak has provided for his running backs.
Gary Kubiak is one of the most experienced playcallers in the entire NFL, being involved as an offensive coordinator or head coach in 349 games. He's also been one of the run-heaviest playcallers over the course of his career, with his RB1 averaging 16.19 carries per game (about 259 carries per season) and his whole RB room averaging 25.27 carries per game (about 404 carries per season). Given the Minnesota Vikings have a very talented and efficient running back in Dalvin Cook, this should be a match made in heaven.
Through the air, Kubiak historically uses his running backs less than other offensive playcallers, with his RB room averaging only 4.92 targets per game. This may hurt Dalvin Cook's fantasy upside in PPR leagues a little bit, but he should still be a strong RB1 considering how often he'll touch the ball in the run game.
So while Gary Kubiak is a little behind the curve on using his running backs in the passing game, the overall opportunity he provides for his running back room more than makes up for it. His running backs room averaged over 30 touches per game during his 349 games of coaching, so it's safe to say that Kubiak is a net positive for running backs in his offense.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive - While he is historically on the lower-end of giving his running backs receiving work, Kubiak more than makes up for it with how often he uses his backs in the ground game. You won't find many playcallers that are willing to give their running backs 30+ touches a game, and for that reason, Dalvin Cook is one of the most intriguing investments in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Chicago Bears
Primary Playcaller: Matt Nagy (Head Coach)
Matt Nagy won the Coach of the Year award in the 2018 season as the Chicago Bears went 12-4 and made the playoffs for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Last year was disappointing for a team that was poised to take the next step, as the Bears finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
The big issue for the Bears last year was their offense's inability to score points. For fantasy football, this is concerning for many of their skill positions, including running back. So, let's look at Matt Nagy's use of running backs, starting with the ground game.
Matt Nagy does frequently utilize one running back in the ground game with his RB1 historically getting 77.3% of the running back room's carries. It is important to note that he is on the lower end of the spectrum of giving his RB room carries in the first place, with them averaging only 20.58 carries per game when the league average playcaller averages 22.46. What this means is that if this backfield ever turns to a committee approach on the ground, there won't be a lot of value to be had.
It's also important to consider Matt Nagy's use of running backs in the passing game since receptions generate more yards than carries. Let's take a look.
These are extremely encouraging numbers, with Matt Nagy's RB room topping 100 targets every season he's been in the league, averaging 7.96 targets per game when the average playcaller averages only 6.55 per game. The reason we haven't seen this lead to a star fantasy back over the past two seasons is that the running back that receives most of the passing work, Tarik Cohen, doesn't receive a ton of carries. But if Tarik Cohen ends up missing some time this year and David Montgomery picks up the receiving work, we could be looking at the next big fantasy football star.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Slightly Negative in Run Game/Positive in the Pass Game - While Matt Nagy does tend to heavily feature one back in the running game, he also doesn't run the ball as much with his running backs as most playcallers. As for their usage in the passing game, this is the area that Nagy really shines in with his RB room averaging 7.96 targets per game. If lead back David Montgomery can tap into Tarik Cohen's monopoly on the receiving work, we could be looking at a star fantasy running back. In the meantime, we can confidently say that David Montgomery is the player to roster in standard formats while Tarik Cohen is the guy in PPR.
Secondary Playcaller: Bill Lazor (Offensive Coordinator)
In this COVID riddled world, it's not a bad idea to look at how some team's secondary playcaller historically utilizes the running back position as well. Here's a fresh look at Bill Lazor's use of running backs in the ground game.
These numbers are very concerning, and it almost makes you grateful that Matt Nagy is the primary playcaller and not Bill Lazor. Lazor was the fourth-worst offensive coordinator/offensive-minded head coach with regards to RB room rushing attempts, ranking only ahead of Scott Turner (4 career games), Kliff Kingsbury (16 career games), and Eric Bieniemy (32 career games). If Lazor gets put in charge of playcalling at any point this year, it's safe to downgrade the Bears running backs slightly because of it.
Bill Lazor's use of running backs in the passing game is a little more encouraging, but still, nothing to write home about. He historically targets his running backs slightly more than the league-average playcaller with 6.63 targets per game (league-average is 6.55).
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative - There's no way around it, Lazor is not a guy you want to be involved in the playcalling for your running backs. He is one of the worst coordinators in giving his RB room opportunities (targets and rushing attempts), historically only giving 26.11 potential touches to his running backs when the league average is 28.94. For fantasy purposes, you better hope he doesn't get playcalling duties this year.
Green Bay Packers
Primary Playcaller: Matt LaFleur (Head Coach)
Matt LaFleur's career path has trended upwards in the past few seasons. In 2017, he was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, but playcalling duties fell to Sean McVay. In 2018, he left the Rams to be the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans and got his first opportunity as the primary playcaller. In 2019, the Green Bay Packers hired him to be their head coach where he led the franchise to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC championship game.
One thing that has led Matt LaFleur to such success is his utilization of running backs. Let's take a look at how he has historically utilized his running backs in the ground game.
These are some very solid numbers with LaFleur being slightly above average in giving his RB room carries (22.60) as well as slightly above average in giving his lead back carries (15.21). In addition, his RB room averages 99.54 rushing yards per game with his lead back averaging 71.83 rushing yards per game, both of which are also above average among playcallers. Overall, LaFleur is a good coach to have if you want to get the ground game going.
Now that we know the ground game is pretty good for LaFleur's running backs, let's take a look at how he uses his running backs in the passing game.
Overall, LaFleur is right around the league average when it comes to utilizing his running backs in the passing game, with his RB room averaging 6.4 targets per game when the average is 6.55 targets per game. In addition, his running back room historically averages 43.69 receiving yards per game, which is slightly above league average (40.90). In general, LaFleur is as average as it comes when referring to running backs in the passing game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Slightly Positive in Run Game/Neutral in Pass Game - Matt LaFleur has shown he will give his running backs more of an opportunity in the run game than the average coordinator or head coach, which makes it a little safer to invest in his backs in fantasy. With regards to using his running backs in the passing game, LaFleur is as average as they come.
Secondary Playcaller: Nathaniel Hackett
Much like we touched on earlier with Bill Lazor, it's not a bad idea to look at how some team's secondary playcaller historically utilizes the running back position as well. Here's a little look at Nathaniel Hackett's use of running backs in the ground game.
Based on this data, it's clear that Nathaniel Hackett is committed to the ground game, giving his RB room 24.51 carries per game, which is over two more carries per game than your average coach. The problem for fantasy purposes is that Hackett also prefers to use a running back by committee approach, with his RB1 only averaging 11.81 carries per game.
Hackett is a mixed bag in the ground game as he likes to run the ball a lot but generally spreads the love to all of his running backs. But how does this coach impact the passing game for his running backs?
It's pretty encouraging to see that Hackett's RB room has gotten at least 100 targets in every season except 2016...where Hackett only coached nine games for Jacksonville. His RB room averages 7.99 targets per game, which is the seventh-best among the 48 coaches with offensive backgrounds that were researched.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game/Positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game/Positive for the passing game - Nathaniel Hackett runs the ball a lot more than the average coach but also likes to run a committee approach. What this means is that when he's calling plays, his RB1 should receive a slight downgrade relative to other teams' RB1s, but the RB2 and RB3 in his offense could be good targets. In the passing game, Hackett is a net positive for his running backs' fantasy value because of how often he targets his running backs.
Detroit Lions
Primary Playcaller: Darrell Bevell (Offensive Coordinator)
Darrell Bevell has called plays for some Hall of Fame-caliber backs including Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. But in recent times, Bevell's team has not had the same caliber backs and the run game has suffered because of it. Let's take a look at the opportunity Bevell has given his running backs historically.
Even considering his last four years as an offensive coordinator, there's a lot to like about Bevell's use of running backs on the ground. His RB room averages 24.06 carries per game, which is well above the league average of 22.46 carries per game. In addition, his lead back averages 15.04 carries, which is also above the league average playcaller's (13.91). It's safe to say that Bevell has a very positive influence on his running backs in the ground game.
Besides his use on the ground, it's important to look at whether or not Bevell gives his running backs ample opportunity through the air.
Bevell is slightly below average among playcallers for RB room targets, giving them only 5.63 targets per game. But the bright side is that his offense has seen a general increase in running back targets since 2012 and topped 100 targets in each of the last two seasons.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive in the ground game/Slightly negative in the passing game - Darrell Bevell will give his running backs work on the ground regardless of if he has a star running back or not. In the passing game, he's slightly below average, but considering his combined RB rushing attempts+targets is nearly 30 opportunities per game (29.69), Bevell should be viewed as a positive for running backs in the world of fantasy football.
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