Post-Hype Pitchers Set to Breakout

April 3, 2020

With a shortened 2020 MLB season likely on the horizon, here are three young post-hype starting pitchers who could have an increased impact. Frank Ammirante breaks down the numbers to help owners find diamonds in the rough during fantasy drafts.

Post-hype pitchers are former top prospects who have struggled to find success in the Major Leagues. These are players who were once viewed as intriguing fantasy assets, but now have discounted prices due to the slow starts to their respective careers. 

The three pitchers in this list have gained value either due to improved team context or decreased impact of innings limits due to the upcoming shortened season. Each of these pitchers has some faults, but their strengths demonstrate some untapped potential.

These young hurlers possess electric stuff, which makes them so appealing to fantasy owners. In addition, they are generally available past pick 200 in your fantasy draft. Let’s investigate why these three post-hype pitchers are set to breakout.

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Dylan Bundy - SP, Angels

2019 stats

As a former consensus top pitching prospect (ranked 2nd on MLB.com’s 2013 preseason Top 100 prospects), Bundy remains an intriguing asset as he enters his age-27 season. While he is coming off another disappointing season, posting a 4.79 ERA due to a bloated 1.61 HR/9 (fourth-worst in MLB), it’s encouraging to see his ability to induce swinging-strikes (12.8 SwStr%, ranked 16th in MLB) and limit contact in the zone (85.9 Z-Contact%, ranked 29th in MLB).

Let’s take a look at his pitch mix to determine the causes of his home run struggles, swinging-strike ability, and zone contact:

Pitch mix 

Bundy’s four-seamer remains the weakest pitch in his arsenal. Sitting at an average of 91.1 MPH, the pitch got pounded, grading poorly with a 9.7 Barrel%, -21.7 pitchVAL, and .407 xwOBAcon. This explains the high home run rate that inflated Bundy’s ERA.

The good news is that Bundy possesses some nasty secondary pitches, with a wipe-out slider (22.3 SwStr%) and solid curveball (.297 xwOBAcon). He also can throw his offspeed stuff to induce weak contact, as his changeup (2.7 Barrel%) and sinker (53.3 GB%) were effective in this regard. In order to take the next step in his growth as a pitcher, Bundy would be wise to decrease his four-seamer usage and start throwing his secondary pitches more often. He really needs to make better use of his nasty slider.

2020 outlook

Bundy was dealt to the Angels this offseason, which bodes well for his 2020 outlook. For one, the Orioles have a history of mismanaging young pitchers. Former top prospects like Jake Arrieta were able to flourish on their new teams.

Bundy also gets a park upgrade by leaving the bandbox of Camden Yards for the friendlier confines of Angel Stadium. He’ll also have a strong defense behind him, with shortstop Andrelton Simmons and third baseman Anthony Rendon in the infield, as well as an athletic outfield that features Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and potential call-up Jo Adell. 

Bundy has the right environment to breakout in his fifth full season. He’ll be pitching for a contending team with a strong defense and he’ll have no innings restrictions, having thrown 160+ innings for three consecutive seasons. It’s also likely that the Angels acquired him because they were cognizant of his untapped potential with changes to his pitch mix, so we can project more sliders. Expect a career year for Bundy in 2020.

Mitch Keller - SP, Pirates

2019 stats

Keller came into the 2019 season with high expectations, ranking as the 19th-best prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100. He failed to perform to these lofty standards, posting a 7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 48 innings. However, we can attribute this to bad luck and small sample size.

Keller’s 3.78 SIERA is considerably lower than his ERA, resulting from an absurd 59.6 LOB% and .475 BABIP. It’s also easy to see some promising signs within his profile -- his 21.6 K-BB% would rank 12th-best in MLB.

Let’s examine his pitch mix to take a deeper dive on the young Pirate:

Pitch mix

Keller’s four-seamer was ineffective, posting a poor -10.4 pitchVAL and .421 xwOBAcon. It averages 95.4 MPH with a strong spin rate, so we can project improvement in batted ball results.

The real gem in Keller’s arsenal is his slider, which induced an elite 26.6 SwStr%. He also has a curveball that stymied hitters to the tune of a .254 xwOBAcon. As you can see, Keller is another pitcher who should try to use his fastball less and emphasize his secondaries. This would surely help him take the next step in his development as a young pitcher.

2020 outlook

More encouraging for Keller was the team’s decision to dismiss long-time pitching coach Ray Searage. Searage emphasized pitching to contact, which impeded the growth of his young starters. We have seen pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow improve dramatically upon leaving Pittsburgh. New arrivals to the Pirates have also regressed -- Chris Archer really struggled under Searage’s tutelage.

New pitching coach Oscar Marin is taking a more analytically-inclined approach to instruction, so it’s likely that we’ll see improvement in the Pirates’ starting rotation, which bodes well for Keller.

The upcoming shortened season is a positive for Keller’s fantasy value, because any concerns over innings restrictions will be mitigated by the decrease in games played. Throughout the offseason, we have witnessed a ton of hype over Keller’s 2020 outlook and for good reason. This is a former top prospect with filthy stuff, ready to take the next step in his development. Keller has the look of the player who lives up to the hype.

Josh James - RP/SP, Astros

2019 stats

James is another talented young pitcher with prospect pedigree, ranking 62nd on MLB.com’s 2019 Top 100 Prospects. He came into last season in a battle for the fifth spot in the Astros’ starting rotation, but a quad injury in February put an end to those hopes. James responded with a strong effort out of the bullpen, posting a 24.4 K-BB% (23rd among relievers), 16.2 SwStr% (18th among relievers), and 74.3 Z-Contact% (6th among relievers).

Let’s analyze his pitch mix to see what makes him such an appealing fantasy asset:

Pitch mix

Unlike Bundy and Keller, James has a nasty four-seamer that sits at 97.1 MPH average velocity and induces an elite 14.1 SwStr%. While we should account for a decrease in velocity as a starter, James’ four-seamer should remain effective at 95+ MPH. He also has a strong changeup (21.8 SwStr%, .209xwOBAcon) that causes problems for opposing hitters. His slider (19.6 SwStr%) is another weapon that can help put away hitters. 

2020 outlook

The Astros allowed starters Cole and Wade Miley to depart in free agency, which presents an opportunity for James to secure a spot in the rotation. Roster Resource projects the rotation to include James alongside Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy.

Even if James were to start the shortened season in the bullpen, McCullers is coming off Tommy John surgery, so his innings will be monitored closely, and likely limited, even in a shorter year.

James has a chance to breakout in his third season in the big leagues. He’ll be pitching for a contending team that needs to rely on him more because of key losses in their starting rotation. It will be interesting to watch James transition into a starter after showing promise out of the bullpen. His impressive four-seamer bodes well for his chances at success as a starter. James is poised to take the next step in 2020.

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