RADIO
David A Marcillo takes a look at how some elite closers are doing in Cactus League and Grapefruit League play. Does it matter? Can it really tell us anything about the regular season?
Spring training stats, traditionally, don't matter. Teams that look like powerhouses in March will lose 100 games in the regular season. Teams that can't even win against split-squad opponents in March will win their divisions in September. Hitters who hit .100 with 0 home runs will be in the MVP race. Pitchers who can't finish the third inning will get Cy Young votes. Baseball in March in Arizona and Florida becomes a lawless wasteland where the stats are made up and the scores don't matter. Teams tie. Half-teams play other half-teams. Guys with numbers in the nineties and no last names on their jerseys pitch the ninth inning of one-run games.
But still. We keep stats, right? Spring training stats are easily accessible, and they exist for all of us to look at. And to make meaning of. And to find things that fit our narratives. That new guy your team traded for? He's hitting .465 in the Cactus League, so he's obviously leading your team to the World Series. That guy that spurned your team and left as a free agent? He's sporting a 7.89 ERA and will be out of the league by the All-Star Game.
We know these things aren't true, but we miss baseball, so it gives us something to look at, something to believe in (even though we know better). It gives us something to help prepare for our many fantasy drafts. Sure, he was elite last season, but he hasn't thrown a single clean inning since 2019! That has to mean something, right? Let's take a look at what might mean something and what almost certainly doesn't, as we sneak a peek at some of the expected elite fantasy closers for the 2020 season.
Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
If we're looking at Closer Tiers based on past performance, we're likely looking at a Tier 1 made up of just Josh Hader, all by himself. I was famously On One™ a few days ago in my Bold Bullpen Predictions for 2020 article and said that maybe Hader exits the tier this season. But still, let's assume he remains elite. How's he doing so far in Phoenix? Not great.
Hader's appeared in five Cactus League games, pitching 4 1/3 innings while allowing four runs on four hits and three walks. He has seven strikeouts, so he's still missing bats, but some reports have said his control has been spottier than usual, with several wild pitches. His fastball has apparently been hovering around 92-93, much slower than his 96 mph average from last season.
So, cause for concern? Yeah, maybe. But it's still spring training and there's a chance Hader is just working on something that he won't want to work on when results count. Still, it would be nice to see a strong outing from Hader before the Brewers break camp and head to Milwaukee. Hader remains alone in this top tier, but his April stats will be very important to keep an eye on and risk averse owners may want to let someone else overdraft the Brewers lefty.
Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres
Kirby Yates is the next guy up for Tier 1 if Hader regresses this season. Yates is basically Tier 1.5 after an amazing 2019 season. He was the second best reliever in baseball per fWAR with 3.4. Yates saved 41 games in 44 chances, posting a 1.19 ERA and 41.6 K%. All elite, top tier numbers. So how's his spring going? Well, it's barely going.
Yates has thrown a grand total of 18 pitches in Cactus League play, ending up with two scoreless innings pitched. He's allowed a walk and struck out four without allowing a hit. The Padres know what they have in their closer and don't need him throwing meaningless innings in Peoria, Arizona. Yates should be excellent again this season and, in my opinion, should be drafted ahead of Josh Hader this season.
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Aroldis Chapman used to be the top tier of closers all by himself, as he was just something else for a long time. Then he struggled a bit and had a down (by his lofty standards) 2017 season. He rebounded a bit in 2018, but started walking a lot more guys all of a sudden. It seemed like maybe the regression monster was hitting Chapman hard. But then, somewhat quietly, he was elite again in 2019. He saved 37 games, put up a 2.21 ERA, and 36.2 K%. He may not be averaging over 100 mph on his fastball like he did from 2014 to 2017 anymore, instead he averaged a Jamie Moyer-esque 98.2 in 2019, but he can still get guys to swing and miss. So how's his spring going?
Moving over to Florida and the Grapefruit League, Chapman's stats are a lot like Yates'. Chapman has thrown just 16 pitches, completing two scoreless innings while allowing a hit and a walk. If other fantasy owners in your league are looking at Chapman as a declining asset, you may have a draft bargain on your hands. Chapman is a solid member of Tier 2.
Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics
So we know Kirby Yates was the second best reliever in baseball last year per fWAR. Who was number one? None other than Liam Hendriks, who wasn't even a closer until part way through the season. Hendriks paced the league with 3.8 fWAR, as he and Yates were the only ones to even break the 3.0 threshold. Hendriks was outstanding all season long, putting up 25 saves and a 1.80 ERA plus a 37.4 K%. He should be in for another amazing season, with even better counting stats since he'll start the season as closer and should hold the job all year.
So how's his spring going? He's appeared in five Cactus League games, tossing an even five innings. In those innings, he's allowed two runs on five hits, but he hasn't allowed a walk and has struck out 11. He could sneak into the top tier this season and is still somewhat undervalued in a lot of drafts.
Quick Pitches
Here's a quick look at the spring training numbers of some of the guys who make up the next tier of fantasy closers - some of these guys are knocking on the door of Tier 2 but the door hasn't quite been answered yet. Would a more modern version of this metaphor be: some of these guys already pressed the video doorbell of Tier 2, but Tier 2 hasn't picked up its phone yet?
Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA (3 unearned runs allowed), 3 hits, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts
Osuna is consistent and very good, but doesn't have the strikeout upside of some of the Tier 2 guys.
Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins: 5 IP. 1.80 ERA, 6 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
Rogers was excellent in 2019 and should continue in 2020. Another strong season could put him in Tier 2.
Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians: 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 3 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Hand had some struggles in 2019, if he can be consistently the way he was in the first half, he'll move into Tier 2. More of his second half self could drop him out of this tier though.
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 3 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts
Jansen used to live in Tier 1, but he's slowed down a bit. Early spring reports say he has some of his velocity back and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him move up to Tier 2 before long.
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays: 3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1 hit, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts
Giles remains one of the more underrated and underappreciated closers, both in fantasy and in real baseball. He's a solid member of this tier with Tier 2 upside if he stays healthy.
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