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Joey Lucchesi 2020 Outlook: Can He Recover From Second-Half Fade?
San Diego Padres pitcher Joey Lucchesi made 30 starts in 2019, and ended the season with a 4.18 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 163 2/3 innings. But while he was a respectable source of strikeouts, he did show a few troubling signs, including losing a tick on his fastball velocity in the second half. Also, his Swinging Strike rate on his changeup slipped to 12 percent over the final two months, down from 20 percent through the end of July. Lucchesi recorded a 3.91 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, and 23.9% K% during the first half of the season, but during the second half, he put up a 4.50 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, and whiffed just 22.1% of batters faced. Finally, he really struggled away from PETCO Park. While he posted a 2.56 ERA with a 0.8 HR/9 in 16 home starts, he had an ugly 6.22 ERA and 1.9 HR/9 in 14 road outings. Lucchesi, who is going off the board at pick 227 in NFBC drafts, is expected to battle Cal Quantrill for the fifth and final rotation spot this spring. But even if he wins the job, there are too many red flags to invest confidently in him. Unless his velocity bounces back, his 2020 line is more likely to resemble his second-half line from a season ago, making him a risky mid-round investment.
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