February 13, 2020

Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor has been perpetually written off because of his low batting average. Last year he finished with a statline of .203/.283/.439 with 30 home runs, 77 runs, 93 RBI and 11 stolen bases. While he's hit just above .200 in two of the last three years, he's also improved his BB% from 4.9% to 8% to 9% over the last three seasons which is paired with an O-Swing% that has dropped from 38.3% to 35.4% to 33.1% over the same span. His K% may have been high last year, but Odor is actually showing a better understanding of the strike zone. When he does make contact, he is doing so with more power, increasing his barrels each of the last three seasons before this outburst last year. Pair that with an 86th-percentile Hard-Hit% and a nearly five-degree increase in launch angle, and you have a bat that looks like it can provide consistent power. In fact, Odor has hit 30 home runs and stolen at least 10 bases in three of the last four seasons. While Odor has two horrible batting average seasons in recent years, he also hit .253 in 2018, .271 in 2016, and .261 in 2016. It would be safe to assume that Odor will regress closer to his career K% of 23.7%, which isn't much higher than the MLB average of 21.7% last year. With more contact and more powerful contact, Odor could put together another 30-10 season with a batting average around .230, which, if you remove his batting average from the equation, is enough to give him a rbEDV around pick 110 (23 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 77 runs and 74 RBI). To reach that value he'd need a .261 average, which he likely won't get, but he'll also hit more home runs than that value accounts for, so how much you're willing to penalize him will depend on how your roster is constructed early. If you have a solid average floor, Odor could be a steal going as late as he is.--Eric Samulski