February 10, 2020

Cleveland Indians pitcher Zach Plesac received the call to the majors on May 28 last season and proceeded to pitch a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 115.2 innings. The 3.81 ERA was well below the league average of 4.51, but that’s the end of the good news for the sophomore righty. Plesac had a 4.94 FIP, 5.06 xFIP, 5.13 SIERA, and the sixth-largest difference between his wOBA (.315) and xwOBA (.347) among pitchers that faced 450 batters. The 25-year old may need to change up his pitch selection if he is to be successful in 2020, and he should start with his fastball. The 2016 draft pick threw his four-seamer 50.6 percent of the time in his rookie season and outperformed his peripherals. He had a .256 batting average and .473 slugging percentage against his heater, but his xBA was .301, and xSLG was .561. If Plesac could work his changeup (20.6 percent usage, .427 xSLG) and slider (18.8 percent usage, .376 xSLG) into his arsenal more, then he could avoid what seems like inevitable regression. His current ADP of 431 means he is going undrafted in 10 and 12-team leagues but could be worth a flyer in 14-team or AL-only leagues. For standard mixed leagues, he is a wait-and-see candidate that is due for some regression in the wrong direction unless he makes some drastic changes.--Euan Leith