February 10, 2020

St Louis Cardinals pitcher Carlos Martinez returned from a shoulder injury in 2019 and spent the entire year in the bullpen, finishing as the team's closer after Jordan Hicks tore his UCL in late June. Martinez was effective in the role, locking down 24 saves and four wins while compiling a 3.17 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 17.5% K-BB% in 48.1 IP. However, now that he's a full year removed from injury, the veteran will attempt to begin 2020 back in the rotation. Due to injuries, Martinez hasn't been a full-time starter since 2017, when he went 12-11 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while notching 217 strikeouts in 205 innings. The right-hander has always been a good source of strikeouts, with a career 23.4 K% and above-average movement on most of his offerings. However, Martinez has also always been a risky option. Despite seeming like he's been in the league forever, he's actually only had three seasons as a full-time starting pitcher (2015-17) and while two of the three of those years were dynamic, injuries may have robbed him of some of his upside. His Whiff% and Chase% are slightly above league average and his 10.6% MLB career SwStr% is solid but not elite. Yet, one interesting development from last year is that Martinez essentially scrapped his cutter, which had a negative pVAL, and increased the use of his changeup, which had a 3.6 pVAL and created a .111 BAA and a 37.9 Whiff%. If Martinez is able to pair that with his slider, which had an 8 pVAL and 40.8 Whiff%, he could survive his inconsistent fastball. Banking on a full season from him is always going to be risky, but he's being forgotten about and no projection systems have him starting even 50% of his appearances this year. If Martinez starts, he will likely finish with an ERA around 3.5, a WHIP near 1.25 and a nine K/9. That sounds like close to Madison Bumgarner or Eduardo Rodriguez territory, yet Martinez has an ADP of 187, while Bumgarner is going 120 and Rodriguez is going 139. If Martinez is locked into the starting job coming out of spring, I'd rather wait the 50+ picks and take the chance on his upside.--Eric Samulski