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Kipp Heisterman examines Francisco Mejia's 2019 stats to determine whether he will be a strong sleeper candidate and draft target for fantasy baseball owners in 2020 based on ADP.
Recently touted top prospect Francisco Mejia had an up and down season for the San Diego Padres in 2019. Mejia came over to the Padres in 2018 as part of a deal that sent Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Cleveland Indians. Expectations are high for the young catcher, especially considering what the Padres gave up for him. He slashed .265/.316/.438 with eight HR, 22 RBI, and 27 R over 226 at-bats in 2019. This stat line does not paint the whole picture for Mejia as he picked up the pace after the All-Star break when he hit .305/.355/.511 with six HR, 16 RBI, and 19 R in 131 at-bats.
One of the major issues with having Mejia on a fantasy roster in 2019 was his lack of playing time. The Padres often opted to start Austin Hedges over him. This is noted by Hedges appearing in 102 games compared to Mejia's 79. Hedges also had 86 more at-bats than Mejia throughout the season. This trend began to turn after the break, however, as Mejia saw more at-bats down the stretch and was able to put up solid numbers as noted by the stat line above.
The question heading into 2020 is whether or not Mejia will be able to provide value to fantasy owners at a relatively weak position. A look into his advanced metrics from 2019 can hopefully give us a glimpse into this answer.
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Transitioning to the Top
Based on how the Padres handled catching duties down the stretch in 2019 and the fact that Francisco Mejia is currently listed atop their depth chart, it is likely that the Padres give him a solid run at the "every day" catcher duties out of the gate in 2020. His overall advanced metrics tell us that this is a guy that needed time to adjust to big-league pitching. This was evidenced by his xBA of .229 and xSLG of .381. He also put up a less than stellar strikeout rate of 24.4% and paired it with a walk rate of just 5.9%.
His splits above tell us that he picked up the pace as he became more comfortable at the MLB level. He showed more power from the right side of the plate as shown by his .461 SLG, .773 OPS, and seven HR compared to .377, .700, and one, respectively from the right side of the plate. It should also come as no surprise that he put up significantly better stats on the road given that Petco Park is a notorious pitchers park.
He also showed a strong ability to hit the fastball and changeup but struggled mightily with breaking balls. This is shown by his batting averages of .280 and .367 vs. fastballs and offspeed pitches, respectively compared to .197 vs. the breaking ball.
Conclusion
Overall, Mejia showed early struggles in 2019 but also showed that he was capable of being a solid producer later in the season once he settled in. Not having an everyday role can take a toll on a player and that easily could be attributed to Mejia in 2019. After all, this is a player who was recently the Indians' No. 1 prospect while putting together a 50-game hitting streak in the minor leagues.
The ability is there, he just has to continue to tap into it as he grows more and more comfortable at the highest level and learns to deal with big-league breaking balls. He currently has an ADP of 250 and is being taken as the 15th catcher off the board. This means he is being taken near the end of round 20 in 12-team leagues.
He makes for a great selection at this position and is someone you can draft for a bench role with the hopes of him sliding into your starting catcher role very early into the season. He is also a great selection at this ADP in two catcher leagues as well as dynasty formats.
