February 16, 2020

Closer value is famously tricky to determine in fantasy. For most guys, their value is tied entirely to their ability to keep closing duties. Mark Melancon is comfortably in that group. He isn't a good enough pitcher to generate value if he doesn't have the closer job. According to Roster Resource, Melancon is currently the Atlanta Braves' closer, but there are a number of names lurking who have experience and could steal his spot at the first sign of trouble. Will Smith, Shane Greene, and Luke Jackson hover as potential usurpers. Melancon has a few things going for him. His time in Atlanta last year saw him put up one of the best strikeout rates of his career (23.9%). He also stayed healthy. Between Atlanta and San Francisco, he threw nearly as many innings in 2019 as he did in 2018 and 2017 combined. Melancon showed above-average spin rates on his fastball and curveball (69th and 79th percentiles, respectively) while allowing just four barrels all season, which put him in the top one percent in the sport. So the question is, can he keep it up? The likely answer is no. At 34 years of age, Melancon's health concerns are always an issue, considering the amount of time he missed in 2017 and 2018. Also, the leash feels even shorter with the number of capable replacements already in the Braves bullpen. Melancon has an ADP around 230, one of the latest for a closer. He is worth drafting and using as long as he has the job.--Todd Salem