January 21, 2020

Valuing Shohei Ohtani will be one of the most unique challenges for managers this draft season. The first task is assessing your league settings and whether Ohtani can be owned as both a pitcher and hitter. Obviously, he is more valuable in any league where owners can use him as both a hitter and pitcher, but that utility is diminished for weekly leagues. Whether he is worth his ADP of 98 depends almost entirely on format. The Angels plan on using Ohtani as a pitcher only once a week, so there will be fewer opportunities to use his unique abilities, though he does provide the opportunity to flex in an excellent hitter (should a team need that) rather than using an SP start against an unfavorable matchup. In daily leagues, managers may want to think of Ohtani as James Paxton who comes with an exceptionally good strong-side platoon hitter. From a pitching perspective, that will likely mean 130 innings of 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 135 Ks, and 12 wins. Offensively, the best comparison is Eric Thames, but that comparison undersells Ohtani’s value because Thames can be marginalized by late-game substitutions. Additionally, Joe Maddon will likely use Ohtani as a hitter more aggressively than we’ve seen in the past. Expect Ohtani to provide 480 plate appearances with a .285 batting average, 25 HR, 72 R, 80 RBI, and 10 SB. Neither of those projections is overwhelming, especially in weekly leagues, but in leagues with daily changes and dual eligibility, it makes Ohtani an undervalued asse. Even in weekly leagues, Ohtani offers a strong floor in comparison to the players going near him.--David Emerick