January 10, 2020

In one of fantasy baseball’s most turbulent positions, Cleveland Indians closer Brad Hand proved to be a reliable option in 2019. The 29-year-old converted 34 of 39 save opportunities with a 3.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 34.7% strikeout rate over 57 ⅓ innings pitched. His 34 saves were tied for fifth most in baseball and his strikeout rate was in the 95th percentile. Digging deeper, Hand’s signature slider was as good as ever, generating a ton of horizontal movement (15.8 inches, 78% above league average), which led to a strong 17.6% swinging-strike rate. His fastball, on the other hand, dropped in velocity from 93.8 MPH to 92.7 MPH. Consequently, he allowed a .270 batting average against compared to just .203 in 2018. Further, Hand’s hard-hit rate jumped from 28.8% to 37.5%, while his average launch angle increased from 11 degrees to 20.2 degrees. These signs are worrisome, but his 2.93 SIERA seems to indicate that his batted-ball profile is ok. Overall, we know that closers can change value very quickly in fantasy baseball, but Hand has averaged 29 saves over each of his last three seasons and seemingly has strong job security on a competitive team. Hand is currently being drafted around pick 120 as the sixth reliever taken. His relative position as sixth reliever seems like fair value, although anywhere between pick 100 and pick 120 overall seems reasonable, depending on how each particular draft plays out.--Connelly Doan