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Paul Goldschmidt 2020 Outlook: Decline Appears Underway
In 2018, Paul Goldschmidt recovered from a season-starting slump, but he had no such luck last season. In 2019, his 116 wRC+ was the worst of his career, even compared to his 48-game debut in 2011. His .260 batting average was deserved given a .262 xBA. With only three stolen bases, those are effectively gone, and at his age of 32 entering 2020, they are not coming back. Despite all of these negatives, Goldschmidt hit 34 home runs, scored 97 times, and drove in 97 runs. The question here is, will the decline continue, or will he bounce back? Naturally, it’s complicated. But one answer suggests itself more. If you look at the projections, Steamer sees a .273 average and 126 wRC+ with 31 HR, 91 runs, 92 RBI, and five steals. However, Goldschmidt's walk rate of 11.4% was his worst since 2012 and his 90.1 mph average exit velocity was the lowest since Statcast began in 2015. He cut down on strikeouts from 25.1% in 2018 to 24.3% last year, but those were his two worst marks since 2011. He swung and missed 11.1% of the time last season, also his worst since 2011. And so, despite the projections, there is a lot of risk in this profile. Let him go a round beyond his ADP of 67 before taking a look.
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