December 21, 2019

Mike Minor had a great 2019 with a 14-10 record and 3.59 ERA in 208 1/3 IP, but his underlying 4.60 xFIP has fantasy owners shying away in early drafts (170.20 ADP). There are two potential reasons for a discrepancy between ERA and xFIP: BABIP and HR/FB. Minor's .287 BABIP allowed last season matched his career rate, so there's no reason to call for significant regression. His fastball is one of the biggest reasons why. It had the single highest spin rate among full-time starting pitchers, clocking in at an average of 2,650 RPM. The pitch behaved like a high-spin fastball, generating whiffs (9.4 SwStr%) and producing weakly hit pop-ups (41.5 FB%, 28.9 IFFB%) that limited opposing batters to a .276 BABIP in 2019. Minor's 12.9% HR/FB in 2019 was slightly higher than his career rate of 10.9%, largely due to his fastball's 16.5% rate. High-spin fastballs generally limit HR/FB, but Minor's “Active Spin” (or the percentage of the pitch's spin that meaningfully contributed to its movement) was only 67.8%. It was 76.8% as recently as 2018, suggesting upside for a better 2020. The Rangers are also moving to a new, presumably more pitcher-friendly ballpark that should help their entire staff out. Minor also offers strikeout upside in the form of a change that generated whiffs (15.8 SwStr%) in an unconventional manner (51 Zone%). He makes for a great late addition to fantasy rotations for 2020.--Rick Lucks - RotoBaller