X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Don't Stop Believing in Jordan Reed

Tight end is a volatile position in the NFL. Siddhant Gannu explains why taking Washington TE Jordan Reed late could pay off in a big way for you when he is on the field.

Trying to find value is important in any fantasy draft, but there are some positions where it is more important than others. Tight end is one of those positions where finding a sleeper can be the biggest differentiator. At a position which has so much middle-of-the-road performance, plucking a top option out of nowhere can put you over the top to win the league.

In 2015, Jordan Reed was fantasy’s third-best TE, putting up numbers that were comparable to Rob Gronkowski’s prime. However, injuries and mediocre offensive production have handicapped his performance and his fantasy value. There’s room to believe, though, that in this upcoming 2019 season, Reed could return to form and be one of the draft’s biggest sleepers.

Let's take a look at the potential upside and downside of drafting Reed, and why he could be a league winner for you if he can put it all together.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Upside

At a glance, Jordan Reed’s 2018 season looks mediocre; he caught 54 passes for 558 yards, averaging about 43 yards per game and 9.2 PPR fantasy points per game. However, there’s more to Reed in 2019 than those stats suggest.

Volume

First, Reed hogs targets. In 2018, across all tight ends, he had the fourth-highest target share (20.1%). If you adjust per snap or the chance he’d be targeted on any given play, Reed rises to second place (16.7% chance). This isn’t an anomaly. Throughout his career, he’s consistently registered a top-five target share when compared to his peers. In seasons where Reed has played at least 10 games, he’s maintained above a 17% target share. Take last season, for example. Despite only playing 12 full games, Reed led the Redskins with 84 targets. His 6.9 targets per game in those contests put him on a 16-game pace of 111, which would have ranked fourth among TEs in 2018. 

Furthermore, there isn’t any competition for targets amongst receivers. Jamison Crowder is now in New York, and Ryan Grant is in Oakland. Paul Richardson, Jr. is back for another year, but concerns about injuries kept him from finishing last season. Even when healthy, he saw fewer targets per game than Reed and had an abysmal 20 receptions for 262 yards across 7 games. His counterpart, Josh Doctson, while much healthier, has continuously failed to breakout over the last few seasons. Over the course of 15 injury-free games (three more than Reed), he had fewer receptions (44), fewer receiving yards (532) and fewer PPR fantasy points per game (7.3). The only other competition is the former Mr. Irrelevant, Trey Quinn, but as a sophomore who hasn’t fully adjusted to Jay Gruden’s system (mainly due to injuries), he’ll need time to get up to speed. For the upcoming year, it is safe to assume that Reed’s volume will not be of concern.

Scheme

But why the high usage rate? Washington, specifically Jay Gruden, loves designing plays for him in third-down situations. Not only is he able to generate the sixth-highest separation (1.74 yds/play), Reed has one of the surest hands in the league. While his catch rate of 64.3% appears horrible on paper, it’s best to put context to these numbers; for a majority of last season’s games, he had Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Johnson at QB.

Additionally, only 70.2% of his targets were catchable, the 35th lowest rate amongst other TEs. If you take the 59 passes that were catchable, his reception rate skyrockets to 91.5% (5th). So not only will Reed generate space from his primary defender, but if the QB can throw a ball within his range, over nine times out of ten Reed will corral it in. Thus, he is an effective threat in must-convert situations.

It’s not just third-down usage. New offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell, hopes to implement pass plays on 1st and 2nd down to keep defenses on their toes, while also increasing short-to-mid yardage passing to boost the Redskins’ pace of play. For Reed, that’s great news; in regards to the former, more passing indicates more volume, while for the latter, his average target distance is about 6.9 yards, making him the perfect mid-range threat. These facts, combined with his high catchable target rate and incredible volume, should allow him to be a starting-caliber fantasy TE.

 

Downside

Of course, while there is a significant upside to drafting Jordan Reed, there’s also considerable risk. Bear in mind these concerns when selecting him.

Injury History

Jordan Reed’s list of injuries is probably one of the longest in the NFL. From a fractured toe that kept him out of the last three games of 2018, to multiple hamstring sprains, to repeated concussions, to an MCL sprain, to a shoulder separation, it’s clear that Reed has been hurt a lot. In fact, he’s missed 17 games in the last three years alone. During last week’s preseason game, he suffered his seventh career concussion, partly in thanks to a late hit by Keanu Neal.

Before the concussion, there was still hope that this upcoming year could be injury-free. Reports out of training camp indicated that this was the first time in over five years where Reed entered the preseason without any lingering issues. Jay Gruden had expressed confidence that Reed would be active and healthy for the Redskins’ Week 1 contest against the Eagles. However, as the recent concussion shows, if you’re drafting Reed, you should pick another, injury-free TE on your roster because It’s a safe bet to assume that Reed will miss at least two to three games in any given season.

Touchdowns

Remember when I noted that Gruden loves to scheme for Reed? Apparently, in 2018, that same love did not carry over when deep into an opponent’s territory. Across the first 10 weeks of last season, the Redskins ran 71 plays in the red-zone. Reed was only targeted once and over the year, finished with only three catches within those 20 yards.

There is a great likelihood that this could be a fluke. He still finished second on the team in red-zone target share at 16.3%; that percentage rises to 26.3% inside the 10. However, more of than not, within the 20, Gruden has consistently turned towards the run game, with RBs accounting for 60% of the position player utilization. Reed, in comparison, only had a 9.3% usage rate in the red-zone.

Furthermore, he had two touchdowns across his 12 full games in 2019. The number may positively regress in 2019, but there is still a chance that it remains low. The Redskins offense is projected to be abysmal in the upcoming year, thanks to below-average QBs at the helm (Case Keenum was mediocre at best in Denver, while Dwayne Haskins is a rookie), and a severely weakened offensive line (Trent Williams continues to holdout). As a result, even moving the ball down-the-field, let alone into the red zone, will be difficult for an offense that last season, finished in the bottom quarter of NFL teams in total yards per game. For Reed, that means his value dips in standard leagues because it is unlikely that he will score touchdowns in an offense that will most likely be ineffective.

 

Conclusion

Currently, Jordan Reed’s ADP across formats is a TE16. Following the concussion, it could drop him to possibly being undrafted. For someone who will be force-fed targets when healthy, he is a great value-pick near the end of most drafts.  If he recovers successfully from the concussion, he should be a lock for about 8-9 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, and if he returns to his 2015 form, Reed could easily finish within the top-10, if not top-seven, amongst his peers.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF