June 7, 2019

It wouldn't be the NFL offseason if we didn't have the typical Devante Parker: Practice Superstar headlines. I do not care. And you shouldn't either. Parker has now had four NFL seasons. In all of them, he was given significant playing time. He has never produced. That is because he is not good at football. Now playing for the worst version of the Dolphins he has seen, Parker is supposed to break out? No. It is really frustrating to read the reports every year about how great Parker is in OTAs or training camp. It has never translated into the regular season. Why would it start now? At least this year, fantasy owners seem to have caught on. Parker is still being drafted, but only in the very final picks of fantasy drafts, outside the top 60 WRs. That is where he belongs. Historically, WRs seeing relevant target shares that have not broken out by their third season never break out. Parker fits this category. A breakout would be exceedingly rare and usually it involves extenuating circumstances (like Julian Edelman playing cornerback for the start of his career). Parker was thrust into a relevant role as a rookie and has done nothing useful for four years. If he miraculously breaks through in year five, I will happily watch from the sidelines. Chase more plausible upside with the last player on your bench.--Jason Katz