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Connelly Doan looks at six pitchers who were 2018 Statcast leaders in average launch angle to determine how their performance may translate to 2019 for fantasy baseball leagues.
Fret not fantasy baseball fans, Winter Meetings have come and gone, big deals are getting struck, and we are continuing our quest to find value for next season! In this edition of Statcast Review, I take a look at some of 2018’s pitching leaders in launch angle.
Launch angle alone is not all that telling for fantasy purposes. Generally speaking, pitchers with lower launch angles are ground ball pitchers, meaning they pitch to contact and have lower strikeout numbers, limiting their fantasy upside. However, by pairing launch angle with other key stats, we can identify some interesting players with fantasy implications for 2019.
We’ll first look at three players that logged between 200 to 300 batted ball events (BBE) and then three with more than 300 BBE to cover both relievers and starters.
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Three Players with 200-300 BBE
#6. Jordan Hicks (STL, RP), Avg. launch angle 0.8°:
Here is an example of a “ground ball pitcher” that certainly does not pitch to contact. 22-year-old Jordan Hicks has all the makings of an elite launch angle reliever. With a 100 MPH sinker, 86 MPH slider, and a proclivity to pitch down in the zone, hitters were likely to beat the ball into the ground when they made contact and were limited in making hard contact (28.2%). The rookie provided fantasy value with a respectable strikeout rate (8.11 K/9), a high number of holds (24), and even saw some save opportunities, converting 6 of 13. Hicks’ lone blemish was his control, as he posted an inflated 5.21 BB/9 rate. That being said, he has plenty of time to pinpoint his control as he gains more big-league exposure, which should positively impact his strikeout rate as well. With immense talent that has already started to manifest itself, Hicks has the potential to become a top fantasy reliever for seasons to come.
#10. Craig Stammen (SD, RP), Avg. launch angle 5.1°:
We now turn our attention to a seasoned veteran. 34-year-old Craig Stammen turned in one of the best seasons of his career in 2018, posting a K/9 rate (10.03) and WHIP (1.04) significantly higher and lower than his career averages (7.37 and 1.26, respectively). The increase in strikeouts and decrease in hits was likely due to a decreased contact rate (71%), his lowest since 2012. In turn, Stammen’s decreased contact rate and low launch angle can be attributed to the vertical movement he got on his main pitches; his sinker and slider had their greatest average vertical movement since 2012 and 2010, respectively.
Stammen served as the Padres’ setup guy and should continue to get hold opportunities in 2019 (he had 23 in 2018), especially with the Padres looking to become more competitive. However, age is not on his side and 2018 looks to have been a career season, so do not be surprised to see some negative regression come his way overall.
#11. Wade Miley (FA, SP), Avg. launch angle 5.2°:
Our final pitcher is a complete transformation story, someone who posted a 5.61 ERA is 2017, got signed to a Minor-League contract at the beginning of 2018, and ended up pitching in the playoffs by the end of the season. Wade Miley posted both a career-low ERA (2.57) and strikeout rate (5.58) over 80 ⅔ IP. The drastic change in numbers highlights his transformation into an elite ground ball pitcher, spearheaded by a new pitch arsenal. Miley relied heavily on a cutter (41.4% usage), a pitch he didn’t even throw until 2017, followed by a curveball and changeup. Miley relied on breaking pitches and pitching to contact to get outs, and it worked. Of his cutters that were put in play, 27.7% of them were ground balls, which was fifth-best among pitchers (min. 100 BBE).
He is now a free agent, but will likely find a new home given last season’s performance. Miley’s new strikeout totals limit his fantasy upside considerably, but he has the potential to be a sneaky, consistent contributor in 2019 if he can maintain his groundball form.
Three players with 300+ BBE
#3. Dallas Keuchel (FA, SP), Avg. launch angle 4.2°:
No one should be surprised to hear that Dallas Keuchel was once again at the top of the launch angle list, so why is he noteworthy? While Keuchel may have made the top of the list, he finished with one of his worst seasons, suggesting further potential negative regression in 2019. His launch angle was its highest in Baseball Savant’s historical database, dating back to 2015. Further, his contact rate (81.6%) was the highest it’s been since his rookie season (2012), and his strikeout rate (6.73) was his lowest since 2014. The culprit behind all this could be Keuchel’s movement on his go-to sinker, which had its second-lowest vertical movement in his career. To be fair, Keuchel still had a solid season overall. However, it is important to note that even the best contact pitchers walk a fine line. Keuchel will not be as valuable of a fantasy pitcher in 2019 if he continues to lose movement on his sinker.
#10. Andrew Suarez (SF, SP), Avg. launch angle 6.4°:
Our final two players are rookies who garner further attention. 26-year-old Andrew Suarez had a decent rookie season, posting a respectable 7.30 K/9 rate with a 4.49 ERA. Suarez is a groundball pitcher by unconventional methods. His slider (89 MPH) and changeup (86.5 MPH) are thrown very hard, inducing ground balls (51.3% rate) but also hard contact (40%). This method may not work everywhere, but Suarez has the luxury of pitching his home games in AT&T Park. If Suarez can continue to keep hitters behind his hard pitches and grow with big-league experience, he could be a worthwhile back-end fantasy starter.
#13. Brad Keller (KC, SP), Avg. launch angle 6.7°:
Unlike Suarez, 23-year-old Brad Keller fits the profile of a typical groundball pitcher, a very successful one at that. He posted a 6.16 K/9 rate with a tidy 3.08 ERA over 140 ⅓ IP and was highly successful at inducing ground balls (even in the upper half of the strike zone) and limiting hard contact (31%). Thanks to his ground ball success, Keller hardly gave up any home runs; his 0.45 HR/9 rate was second lowest amongst pitcher who logged at least 120 IP. The quality of the Royals’ lineup may limit Keller’s chances at wins, but there is a lot to like about him going into 2019 based on his rookie performance. Look for Keller to be a consistent number four fantasy starter, or potentially even better.
