RADIO
Aside from the marquee names like Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Victor Hedman, defensemen do not get the attention in fantasy hockey that their forward counterparts do. Typically, this means that if a defenseman has a down year due to injury or any other factor, it is even easier for them to fall out of the spotlight. Thankfully, eagle-eyed fantasy owners can collect value later in their drafts with defensemen that should perform at a high level, as long as they know where to look.
Just like with forwards, the key is to look for three main factors that can contribute to increased production: positive statistical regression, change of usage or linemates, and recovery from injury. Usage for defensemen is especially important when it comes to power-play time since defensemen do not score as much as their forward counterparts. Playing in these high-value opportunities can help bridge that gap. Each of the defensemen below can point to at least two of these factors as reasons to believe that a bounce-back season is on its way.
Justin Schultz (D, PIT)
A career renaissance was waiting for Justin Schultz when he arrived in Pittsburgh and in 2016 he posted a career-high 51 points including 20 powerplay points. Then 2017 came and brought his lowest career shooting percentage (3.7 percent) and an injury that robbed him of 19 games. Now that he is fully healthy, his production should be closer to the 0.61 points per game pace from his first 96 games with the Penguins rather than his 0.43 points per game pace from last year. With potent goal-scoring teammates like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel, it is hard to imagine Schultz won't find a way to improve upon his 0.37 assists per game rate from last year.
Kevin Shattenkirk (D, NYR)
In what is admittedly a rebuilding year for the Rangers, Kevin Shattenkirk's usage and opportunity are enough to pull him into fantasy relevance. Shattenkirk has had at least 161 shots in the each of the last four years that he has played at least 70 games. Now that he has recovered from a torn meniscus that held him to 46 games last year, he can reclaim his spot on the top powerplay and cash in on those opportunities. With few others to challenge his usage, a healthy Shattenkirk should return to his 2.3 shots per game rate from the last five years. Throw in a bump back to his career 6.4 shooting percentage and Shattenkirk should safely be back to double-digit goals.
Dougie Hamilton (D, CAR)
Dougie Hamilton failed to repeat his career-high 50 point total from 2016-17 despite taking more shots (270), averaging a career-high 21:32 minutes of ice time per game, and scoring a career high in goals (17). The shortfall came in his assists total, which dropped from 37 to 27 last season. With only 6 powerplay assists last season, his lowest total since 2013-14, there is a reason to expect his point total to recover with his move to Carolina. The Hurricanes had the 22nd ranked powerplay unit last season compared to Calgary's 29th ranked unit. Now that Hamilton is with the Hurricanes, who have increased their total goals scored in each of the last four years, Hamilton seems poised for an improved offensive campaign.
Oscar Klefbom (D, EDM)
A nagging shoulder injury hampered Oscar Klefbom's 2017-18 season, and the impact was felt on the scoresheet as his goals per 60 minutes (0.2), assists per 60 minutes (0.6), and shooting percentage (2.46 percent) all decreased from the previous year. Klefbom's season was such as disappointment that he had fewer points (21) than bone fragments removed from his shoulder (22) at the end of last year. Now fully healthy and with little competition for a position on the top powerplay, a return to the 40 point range with double-digit powerplay points is a reasonable expectation for the 25-year-old blueliner.
Zach Werenski (D, CBJ)
How can a defenseman that scored 16 goals in his second season be a bounce-back candidate? Because that same defenseman tallied only 21 assists and saw his total points drop by 10 despite increasing his shooting percentage to 7.7 percent and his average time on ice to 22:35 minutes. Throw in a sharp decline in powerplay points from 21 to 10 in 2017-18, and it becomes clear that Werenski is further from his rookie season production than it appears. With teammate Seth Jones currently on IR, Werenski has the opportunity to step into the role that saw Jones led Columbus in shots last season.
