Wide Receiver Target Variances - Week 4 Report

October 5, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important changes in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for wide receivers ahead of Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season to help fantasy football owners make informed lineup decisions.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from four weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 4.

Overall Targets

Adam Thielen and Antonio Brown are the only two players that have captured at least 50 targets during their first four games, and are among the 11 receivers who have attained 40+. That includes Stefon Diggs, who captured a season-best 15 targets in Week 4. That tied him for the highest total of the week with three other receivers - Corey Davis, Tyler Boyd, and Keke Coutee during his NFL debut.

It was the third time that Diggs has garnered a double-digit total this season, the first time that Davis has accomplished it since Week 1, and the first time that Boyd has achieved it this year. Yet, Coutee's emergence was arguably the most noteworthy development of the week, as he began his professional career by collecting 11 of his aforementioned 15 targets for 109 yards. He possesses the talent to become a dynamic weapon for Houston even if Will Fuller recovers quickly from his hamstring injury, which justified making Coutee the top waiver wire target at this position in most leagues.

Davante Adams followed with a season-best 14 targets, as Randall Cobb’s absence (hamstring) funneled more opportunities in his direction. Tyreek Hill was next with 13, which easily exceeded the 6.3 targets per game average that he obtained during his first three games. Hill was followed by Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Nelson Agholor, and Amari Cooper, who all received 12 targets.

It was the fourth straight week in which Hopkins has been targeted at least 10 times, and the third time in four weeks that Agholor has attained that level of opportunity. Jones owners are undoubtedly aware that it was the most passes that Matt Ryan had launched in his direction since Week 1, while Cooper’s wildly oscillating totals will be discussed in the variance section.

Reception leader Michael Thomas entered the week with the third highest target total behind Thielen and Brown. But his four-targets against the Giants were the fewest for any receiver that is currently in the top 30. Game script was the primary factor in that regression, and his involvement should return to its customary level this week when the Saints host Washington.

Greatest Variances

This week's variances will focus on the differential between Weeks 3-4, and any Davis owners who were unwavering in their decisions to continue starting him should be ecstatic with the results. He was the recipient of this week’s largest increase, with an enormous surge of 11 additional targets. That reversed an unwelcome trend in which his weekly total had distinctly regressed after he had received the seventh highest number of targets in Week 1 (13).

Dede Westbrook received the week's second highest increase (9), while Boyd’s 15 targets represented an upturn of eight from Week 3 (7, 15). Boyd was joined by Hill and Zach Pascal, who entered Week 4 with three targets all season, but received 10 when T.Y. Hilton suffered multiple injuries.

Agholor, Geronimo Allison, Cooper, and Chester Rogers were next with a rise of seven targets, as Cobb’s injury also propelled Allison’s total to a season-high (11), after he had averaged 5.3 from Weeks 1-3. Agholor’s expanded total was more consistent with his results in Weeks 1-2, while Cooper’s target total sustained an unwanted streak of massive fluctuation that has resulted in the fourth-year receiver being included among the largest variances for a fourth consecutive week. His increase of seven targets was the second time that his total has risen at that exact amount (Weeks 2, 4), with a drop of five layered in between (3/10/5/12). Rogers joined Pascal in collecting more opportunities during Hilton's absence, and the value of both receivers is primarily dependent upon Hilton's health.

Jones was the only other receiver whose weekly total improved by at least six, while Diggs, Adams, and Ram teammates Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp all experienced an increase of five. While Thielen collected a favorable number of targets (12), that number also resulted in one of Week 4’s largest declines (-7), as the 19 that he collected in Week 3 destined him for a reduction.

The surge in opportunity for Cooks and Kupp was a factor in Woods experiencing a decline of six, which was matched by Thomas, Fuller and Keelan Cole. Fuller’s health issue forced him from Houston’s Week 4 matchup in Indianapolis and directly impacted his total, while Thomas had been averaging 13.3 targets per game prior to being allotted just four when New Orleans faced the Jets. Anyone who owns Jacksonville's Cole, Westbrook or Donte Moncrief should prepare for inconsistent target totals throughout the year.

Red Zone Targets 

Juju Smith-Schuster leads all wide receivers with 13 red zone targets, followed by Thomas, Kupp, AJ Green, and Adams comprising the top five. 19 different receivers have secured at least five, including a group of eight who have been allotted six passes inside the 20. Thomas is the only receiver that has been targeted at least twice in every contest, while Smith-Schuster, Hopkins, Kupp, Green, Adams, and Cooks are the only other players that have received two targets in three different games.

All three of Kupp's double-digit games involved captured three red zone targets, which has boosted his overall total to 10, while teammate Cooks has garnered two targets in three consecutive contests in order to attain his overall total (7). Calvin Ridley has now captured two red zone targets in each of the past two weeks, which has improved his season-long total to five. Yes Julio Jones owners, that is two more than your receiver, which is a topic that awaits you later in this report.

Greatest Variances

Smith-Schuster and four other receivers were targeted three times, which represented the most opportunities in Week 4. While the fact that he was joined by A.J. Green, Thielen, and Kupp in attaining that number is not surprising, seeing Sterling Shepard’s name within that group is more noteworthy. He now has garnered a total of six for the season, was a clear beneficiary of Evan Engram's absence, and should continue being located with greater frequency while Engram is sidelined.

Chris Godwin's six targets are tied with Thomas and Kupp for the most among wide receivers in that category, but he was not targeted near the end zone in Week 4. I am hesitant to forecast his usage moving forward until the Buccaneers return in Week 6. At that point, we can begin to ascertain Jameis Winston's targeting preferences.

Demaryius Thomas owners already have multiple reasons for concern, but unfortunately, his red zone targeting must also be discussed. After collecting four red zone targets during Denver's first two contests, he has failed to receive any opportunities in two consecutive games. While neither Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton registered any looks near the end zone during that span, Denver's current ranking of 19th in both red zone efficiency and offensive touchdowns per game will not eliminate the possibility that the Broncos will alter their target distribution in upcoming weeks.

Snap Counts  

Hopkins has essentially played on every offensive snap for Houston this season, while Agholor, Landry, Brown, Adams, Thielen, Cooper, Kupp, Nelson, Woods are next in total snaps. Hopkins unsurprisingly performed on more snaps than any other receiver in Week 4 (86), while Jordy Nelson, Cooper, and Coutee joined him in reaching 80.

Their counts were partially a byproduct of Oakland (90) and Houston (84) having the most offensive plays of all teams due to their overtime matchups. But owners of both Raider receivers should take satisfaction in the knowledge that they will be essentially cemented to the field whenever their offense has the ball. This also bodes well for the newly relevant Coutee, who should minimally remain a WR3 even after Fuller returns to the lineup.

Hopkins, Adams, and Woods all played on 100% of their team's snaps, followed by Thielen (99%), Kenny Golladay (98%) Smith-Schuster (97%) Kupp (96%), and six receivers at 95% (Brown, Beckham, Green, Cooks, Shepard, Quincy Enunwa). Alshon Jeffery performed on 65/87% of Philadelphia's offensive snaps in his season debut while instantly reaffirming his status as the Eagles' WR1. Doug Baldwin will operate with the same responsibilities in Seattle, after playing on 50/76% of the Seahawks’ snaps.

Greatest Variances

This week's variances will compare snap count percentages, with the two largest changes both occurring due to injuries. Green's groin issue prematurely concluded his Week 3 participation, but his snap count rose to a familiar level upon his Week 4 return.  Hilton's situation is less positive, as the hamstring problem that negatively impacted his Week 4 playing time is primed to keep him sidelined.

While the Colts' WR1 remains absent, Grant, Chester Rogers, and Zach Pascal are all candidates for expanded snap counts. Grant is already 24th overall (230/79%), but could still experience an increase, while Rogers (186/63%) and Pascal will become more critical to the Indianapolis passing attack. Pascal's count surged to 45 in Week 4, after he accumulated a total of 34 snaps in Weeks 1-3 (10, 18, 6).

After playing on a total of 20 snaps from Weeks 1-3, Marquez Valdes-Scantling performed on a season-best 54 while functioning as Green Bay's WR3. He could ascend into an even larger role if Allison (concussion) joins Cobb on the sidelines when the Packers face Detroit. Chris Hogan's percentage dropped by 14%, even though he remains 20th among all receivers in total snaps (241). But that has not delivered any benefits to his owners. He was only targeted once in Week 4, and Julian Edelman's return should compel owners to locate a more productive option.

If you are searching for a deep stash, Zay Jones played on 91% of the snaps for a Buffalo offense with which he could soon function as the WR1. Of course, this will require the willingness to trust a player that will be operating within a unit that is rampant with talent deficiencies.

Five Things I Noticed

1. Larry Fitzgerald (21), Antonio Brown (20) and Julio Jones (19) finished fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively among all wide receivers in red zone targets during the 2017 regular season. However, none of them currently lead their own teams in that category. Brown and Jones continue to trail Smith-Schuster and Ridley, with Brown's total (5) lagging far behind Smith-Schuster's league best number (13). Ridley’s total is two more than Jones, whose three targets for the season all occurred in Week 1. Fitzgerald’s situation in Arizona is most concerning, as he also finished fourth overall with 161 targets in 2017, while averaging 10.6 per game. After four games this season, he is 40th at his position with 25 targets and is averaging 6.2 per game. He has also been targeted just two times in the red zone.

 2. Throughout the offseason, I was among those who retained optimism that Corey Davis' production would be vastly improved and that owners could target him during their drafts. He then began the year by capturing 20% of his 2017 target total (13). But I admit to having doubts after his opportunities declined in Weeks 2-3, while the Titans proceeded to average just 133 yards through the air (183/83). But Marcus Mariota persevered through the remaining effects of his elbow injury and collaborated with Davis to generate the team's aerial resurgence in Week 4. Owners who are lamenting benching Davis were fully justified in doing so, based upon what we had observed prior to Tennessee's matchup with Philadelphia. But the renewed health of Mariota, along with tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, provide reasons for optimism that Tennessee's offense can sustain the proficiency that was displayed against the Eagles, with Davis functioning as a highly productive primary weapon.

3. Keke Coutee’s Week 3 numbers warranted inclusion in this column with the same speed that he is capable of displaying on the field, after Deshaun Watson chose to locate him with extreme frequency last Sunday. He had missed Houston’s first three contests while contending with a hamstring issue, but now has an opportunity to remain an integral component within a Texan offense that sorely lacks difference makers beyond Hopkins, Watson, and Fuller.

4. Ready for yet another Amari Cooper fluctuation? After he failed to receive a red zone target during the Raiders first three contests, Derek Carr targeted him four times and week four, which gave him the highest weekly total. Depending upon consistent numbers from Cooper in any category is never advisable, but his opportunities and output can both rise to desirable levels in any particular week.

5. It appeared that Mike Williams had forged a more significant role in the Chargers’ passing attack, while elevating into a higher spot in Philip Rivers’ order of preference among his receiving weaponry. But what had been an ascending total suddenly declined in Week 4 (5/2/7/3). He also did not collect a single red zone target in Week 4, after his total had gradually increased during the first three weeks (0/1/2/0).

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