On The Rebound - Five Wingers Who Will Bounce Back in 2018-19

September 25, 2018

Russ Ivanac looks at high-scoring NHL wings (LW/RW) who could experience a bounce back season in 2018-19. These players could be draft bargains and sleepers in fantasy hockey leagues.

Every year it happens. A forward inexplicably falls short of expectations and fantasy owners are left with a terrible taste in their mouth for years to come. Determining if that slump in production was a one-year aberration or a sign of things to come is an integral part of taking home a league title.

Take 2016 Taylor Hall for example. In his first year with New Jersey, he struggled to score, posting only 20 goals with a career-low 8.4 shooting percentage. To that point in his career, Hall had never scored fewer than 65 points in a season where he played at least 70 games. In 2016, he scored only 53 points in 72 games. The following season he was joined by Nico Hischier and saw his shooting percentage predictably increase on his way to a career-high 39 goals and 93 points. Now Hall is a bit of an extreme case as he blossomed into a Hart-caliber forward, but his meteoric rebound provides us some lessons to learn from.

The key is to look for three main factors that can turn around a player's fortunes: positive statistical regression, change of usage or linemates, and recovery from injury. The most promising bounce-back candidates can point to at least two of these factors as reasons to be optimistic. Each of the players mentioned below has exactly that. These players may have burned you last year, but as we enter 2018, these wings are ready to go from spicy to sweet.

Don't Call It a Comeback

Max Pacioretty (LW, VGK)
The former Montreal Canadiens captain was already due for a bounce-back season after posting his lowest shooting percentage in the last eight years. He failed to reach 30 goals for the first time since 2012, but then he was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. He will likely play on the second line in Vegas alongside Paul Stastny and Alex Tuch, representing a clear upgrade in linemates over what he had in Montreal. When Stastny was traded to the Winnipeg Jets last season he played on a line with Patrik Laine, who immediately saw his points per game (0.82 to 0.95) and shooting percentage (17.5 percent to 20.3 percent) improve. Laine had a very similar shot rate to Pacioretty last season, with Pacioretty's 10.45 shots per 60 minutes slightly trailing Laine's 10.70 shot rate. Playing with a volume shooter such as Pacioretty is nothing new for Stastny and the pair could quickly find chemistry. Pacioretty likely will not be the only one happy he is no longer in Montreal this year as his fantasy owners can pencil him in for another 30 goal campaign.

Jeff Skinner (LW, BUF)
It is not often that a 26-year-old forward that has three 30 goal seasons under his belt finds himself on a new team so early in his career, but that was the 2018 offseason for Jeff Skinner. The knock on Skinner is that his scoring can be streaky, as shown by the three seasons where he failed to score more than 20 goals. Regardless, only 13 players have more goals then Skinner over the last three years. Simply put, Skinner can score. For all of his perceived scoring inconsistency, he has not had back to back seasons in which he played at least 50 games and scored less than 25 goals or had a shooting percentage less than 10 percent. His 24 goals in 82 games last season came with an 8.7 percent shooting percentage. History suggests a better year is on the horizon. Positive regression is coming for Skinner in 2018 along with the opportunity to play with Jack Eichel in what should be his most promising season to date.

Mike Hoffman (RW/LW, FLA)
You may have heard this one before. A player leaves a lottery-bound franchise, joins one that should finish much higher in the standings and is now expected to see an uptick in production. Some things are cliche for a reason. Last season Hoffman had his lowest point total, points per game pace, shot total, and shooting percentage since 2014. A 56 point season is not often considered a "down year", but when it is accompanied by his lowest full-season goal total (22) despite eclipsing 250 shots for the first time in his career, it is hard to see it as anything but disappointing. Now with the Panthers, Hoffman should be closer to his career shooting percentage of 10.8 after shooting only 8.6 percent last year. Hoffman is in a position to break 60 points once again.

Marcus Johansson (LW, NJ)
Johansson's first year in New Jersey was limited to only 29 games after two concussions derailed his season, but all signs are pointing to him being healthy and ready to go in 2018. That should lead to a return to form for the 27-year-old Swede. Despite being limited by injuries and posting the second lowest shooting percentage of his career (11.9 percent), Johansson scored at a pace of 0.48 points per game last season. He should be a lock to score at least 45 points, which he had done in each of the three years before he joined the Devils. Johansson is limited by a pedestrian 5.5 shots per 60 minutes rate over the last couple years. If he can improve his shot production or find his way onto the top powerplay unit, then a return to the 58 points he scored in his final year in Washington is a real possibility.

Brandon Saad (LW, CHI)
Reports out of Chicago are that Brandon Saad will be playing on a line with Patrick Kane this year. Common sense dictates that if you play on a line with an elite goal scorer, points are sure to follow. Even still, that is not the only reason to be optimistic about Saad in 2018-19. Last season, Saad had a shooting percentage of only 7.6 percent, which was the lowest mark of his career and significantly lower than his career average of 10.9 percent. It was also the first time he has registered a shooting percentage under 10 percent. Saad is only 25 years old, which is when most forwards are entering their prime. This suggests his 35 points in 2017 was simply a down year and not a sign that his skill or effectiveness is on the decline. If Saad had just converted at his career average shooting percentage, based on the number of shots he took last year, he would have scored at least 25 goals. This is a safe expectation of what he can do this season.