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As I mentioned last week, I'm one of more than 100 fantasy analysts participating in this year's #2EarlyMock. Before we get into the blow-by-blow, kudos to Justin Mason for putting the whole enterprise together.
If you're curious as to how other analysts are approaching their drafts, another tip of the cap to Smada, who is tracking all eight drafts in a Google spreadsheet which you can access here.
These are standard set-ups (12-team mixed, 5x5). I drew the ninth pick in league #2. Below you'll find my choices in the first 10 rounds, and a few stray thoughts on some other notable picks. For reference, I've included each players' ADP across all nine mocks.
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My #2Early Picks
1.9 Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros (11.5 ADP)
Altuve went as high as second and as low as 18th in these drafts. I'm fine with him in the first round, although with the way things have played out I'm wondering if Trea Turner (who I strongly considered and went to Brian Slack with the next pick) would have been a better choice. The counting stats haven't been as impressive as the last couple of seasons but Altuve is closing in on his fifth straight season with a .310+ AVG and will still be leading off for one of baseball's best lineups, so he remains an excellent bet for five-category production.
2.16 Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox (16.6 ADP)
Neither Alex Bregman nor Manny Machado fell to me here as hoped, but Sale's a hell of a consolation prize. There's a decent argument for him over Max Scherzer, who went fourth overall.
3.33 Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs (26.0 ADP)
This is the latest Bryant has gone in any of the drafts, so there's not a significant injury discount among analysts who are crazy enough to do a mock six months in advance of next season. I don't necessarily think that will be true across the landscape, but even at the end of the third round, Bryant is a good value. It seems fair to attribute most of his disappointing 2018 to a shoulder injury, and it's not even like he was awful (.846 OPS).
4.40 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs (36.9 ADP)
Couldn't resist pairing the Cubs' corner infielders. Rizzo's had a slightly disappointing season relative to his usual standard, and he won't feature bonus 2B eligibility next year. Still, early picks should have a high floor and there aren't many players who fit that bill better than Rizzo does.
5.57 Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (55.3 ADP)
Greinke will be 35 next year, but few if any pitchers have been more reliable, durable, and consistent. Since 2008, he ranks second among all starters in wins, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in innings, and 13th in both ERA and WHIP. Not a bad guy to have as your #2.
6.64 Justin Upton, OF, Los Angeles Angels (66.6 ADP)
You may be noticing a theme here! Upton has a reputation as a streaky hitter, but at the end of the year, he always has his numbers. He's averaged .261-86-30-89-11 over the past six campaigns with impressively little variance between seasons.
7.81 Aroldis Chapman, RP, New York Yankees (92.4 ADP)
My only reach thus far going by how the other leagues are operating. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel all came off the board earlier in the round, so this seemed like an appropriate time to lock down a stud reliever. At a position known for its volatility, Chapman is as close to a sure thing as can be.
8.88 Mitch Haniger, OF, Seattle Mariners (70 ADP)
Haniger is going nearly two rounds earlier than this on average, though that ADP is slightly skewed by one participant taking him 39th. Then again, he ranks 26th this season per ESPN's Player Rater and 34th by Yahoo's rankings in standard leagues.
9.105 Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (98.8 ADP)
Martinez is currently closing games for the Cards, but he'll be back at the top of their rotation in 2019. It was a surprise to see him still on the board when less established pitchers like Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz had already been selected. This one felt like a steal, though it's only a moderate value going by ADP.
10.112 David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (100.2 ADP)
I gave strong consideration to Jose Peraza here (who went later in the round) since I still needed a shortstop, but instead went with a longtime personal favorite. Peralta has succeeded beyond even my expectations this season, ranking as a top-15 outfielder according to both Yahoo and ESPN. Another 30 HR season is probably unrealistic given his ground ball-heavy profile, but 20 is fine when paired with a plus average and good run production.
Others of Note
Ronald Acuna (15 ADP) and Juan Soto (30) were both gone before the end of the third round in my mock. Acuna went early in the second, in fact. Other leagues were even more bullish, as Acuna was picked seventh in one and Soto 22nd in another. Both are fantastic players, but they're also risky at these prices. Not as risky as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (51) and Eloy Jimenez (92), though. Neither has played a single game at the MLB level, but Vladito went in the second round (!) of one mock. I can't get behind that, even for a guy who sure looks like a generational talent. Adalberto Mondesi (69 ADP...nice) went at 77, and I'd bet anything that he costs more next spring. I'm unlikely to end up with many shares if that does happen. Speed is precious in today's game, especially when it comes packaged with pop, but Mondesi's lack of patience and contact ability are major red flags. Ask the folks who made Byron Buxton a top-5o pick this year how that worked out for them.
