RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the DFS slate and Vegas betting lines for The PGA Championship. Here are some under the radar plays and picks for this week's DraftKings tournament and Vegas lines.
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Justin Thomas earned his first career WGC title at the Bridgestone Invitational and did so in a stress-free fashion. The American finished the tournament at 15-under par, four shots clear of second place finisher Kyle Stanley. Thomas shot a final round one-under 69, which included just one bogey, two birdies and 15 pars. The victory is Thomas' ninth career title on tour and his fifth in his last 24 tournaments. Thomas, who was listed as our top sleeper to capture the title at odds of 30/1, gives us our second consecutive outright winner after hitting Dustin Johnson at the RBC Canadian Open the week prior. With the back-to-back wins, we have now selected two winners, two runner-ups and three additional top-10 results in just five total tournaments.
Being on this current heater is phenomenal and will do wonders for our short-term bankroll but long-term success in sports betting, DFS or gambling of any kind ultimately comes down to two main factors in my opinion. For starters, we must always remember to find value and exploit edges when possible. Every move, decision or pick we make must continuously provide positive expected value. It doesn't mean our betting selections or DFS lineups will never lose, but what it does suggest is that through 1000s and 1000s of completed results, we expect to be profitable with our conclusions we have formed.
The second important factor that I feel like most people say they understand but tend to overlook would be bankroll management. Just because we have hit two winners in a row, it does not mean that we try to double or triple down for an even more substantial score. Nobody wants to get stuck in the rut of their average wager never increasing or their standard DFS cash-game amount not expanding, but these are things that are done slowly and steadily over time. There are more conservative and aggressive approaches to bankroll management but having an understanding of where your bankroll is currently and at what point you feel comfortable in moving up in stakes is vital. These may sound like basic tips, but they are indispensable when it comes to long-term success. With the PGA Championship on tap, let's take a look at value plays we will be targeting.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finkelstein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's column, providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 PGA Championship - Bellerive Country Club - 7,317 Yards - Par 70 - Bentgrass Greens
Having concrete details on how a course plays usually makes things much clearer, but this week at Bellerive Country Club, we will have to formulate conclusions of our own. This will be the third major championship held at Bellerive but only the first since 1992. Rees Jones redesigned the course in 2005, and only one PGA event has been hosted since, which was the 2008 BMW Championship.
Instead of focusing on what we don't know, let's instead try to pinpoint in on what we can tell. The greens are HUGE and should emphasize strokes-gained approach and strokes gained-putting. The rough appears to be penal, so hitting fairways will be necessary if you want an opportunity to score. However, that is where we run into a slight problem when trying to handicap this course. Fairways will need to be hit, but with it being such a long Par 70, we also need guys that provide the opportunity for length off of the tee. Essentially it comes down to this, players that use a driver off the tee open up the possibility of the thick rough or potential to be blocked by a tree. Players that use other clubs will have LONG approach shots into the greens and the holes are protected by difficult bunkers and water hazards. There doesn't seem to be one ideal way to play, and that could open up the possibility for numerous outcomes.
Pick to Win
Jason Day (25/1, DK Price $9,000, FD Price $11,700)
Before I get into why Jason Day is my pick to win, I want to discuss why I am no longer selecting Rory McIlroy briefly. As many of you who read this article weekly know, I have been touting McIlroy as my pick to win the PGA Championship for a couple of weeks now. I still think McIlroy makes for a decent DFS play and I am not writing him off entirely, but there were a couple of things that eventually drew me away from the Irishman. For starters, his 12/1 outright price is just too shallow for me. I was very disappointed in McIlroy's performance this weekend at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and thought he looked lost with his approach game. Bellerive has significant numbers looming if a player gets sloppy off of the tee or with their irons, and McIlroy continuously missed his spots on Saturday and Sunday. If the course plays as tricky as it is thought to be, it is hard for me to imagine that the 29-year-old will be able to put together four consecutive days without a slip-up. It also can't help being paired with Tiger Woods for the first two days of the event either.
My top three betting choices this week could all theoretically be flipped around in any order, but for the sake of parity, I will list Jason Day as my pick to win. Day saw some movement on his betting number on Saturday at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, but after a late Sunday blow-up moved him into a share of 10th place to the end the tournament, some drift has been seen around the Aussies price. Day is one of the most perplexing players to decide what to do with weekly. He will never grade out exceptionally well in stat-based models, but he is always lurking for an under the radar sort of win. The Aussie comes in as the 12th highest priced player on DraftKings, fourth on Fanduel and ninth in the betting market.
It is still up in the air on how Bellerive will play but if past PGA Championship venues end up being corollary type tracks, Day should find himself right at home. In his last five PGA Championship's he has played, the 30-year old has provided five top-15 finishes, including a win in 2015 and a runner-up result in 2016. Day's recent off of the tee and approach shot struggles could present a reason for trepidation, but his superb putting and bunker game could readily make up for that if the course rewards those two factors over everything else. In Day's last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks second in sand saves and second in strokes gained-putting and when viewed throughout the spectrum of all shots played in every player's career, Day ranks first in both of those categories.
Sleepers
Justin Rose (24/1, DK Price $9,400, FD Price, $11,900)
Justin Rose enters Bellerive off of a Wednesday pre-tournament withdrawal at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Back injuries should never be taken lightly, but all accounts early in the week have suggested that Rose's departure from Ohio was purely precautionary based. I don't want to undervalue the importance of a WGC Event, but the 38-year-old is all about majors at this point of his career. Everything will be accurately done to ensure that he is peaking for a grand slam tournament, not the event the week prior.
Coming into last week, Rose was as low as 16/1 for the PGA Championship at some books. Fast forward a week later, and you can find the Englishman at 24/1, with that number continuing to rise. You never want to see a player hurt, but Rose's withdrawal last week was the best thing to ever happen to his projected ownership percentage and outright betting number. As the eighth most expensive player on DraftKings at $9,400, Rose was veering towards being the chalk play of the week. I'd imagine the third-ranked player in the world will still see a substantial ownership percentage, mostly if news continues to trickle in on his health being completely fine but many people won't be taking a chance on Rose because of this, and I am all for the reduction in ownership and rise in betting value.
Rose has posted seven straight top-25 finishes on the PGA Tour, which includes a win at the Fort Worth Invitational and a share of second place at the Open Championship. And in his last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks in the top 15 in strokes gained approach, strokes gained on par-fours, sand save percentage, strokes gained-putting and fairways gained. I wouldn't be shocked to see Rose's number continue to rise, and I will be keeping a close eye on what is the best betting number I can lock in on the nine-time winner on the PGA Tour. Rose is the eighth most expensive player on DraftKings, third on Fanduel, and is currently the eighth highest priced player in the betting market.
Tommy Fleetwood (30/1, DK Price $9,300, FD Price $11,400)
Tommy Fleetwood is starting to cement himself into the conversation as the best golfer yet to win a major. Players like Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler , and Hideki Matsuyama have done more in the United States than Fleetwood has, but the Englishman is a four-time winner on the European Tour and seems ripe for a breakout in America.
The thing that I like so much about Fleetwood is that there doesn't seem to be a track he can't handle. With Bellerive being the great unknown as of right now, I think that bodes well for the 11th-ranked golfer's chances this week. In Fleetwood's last 50 rounds compared to the field, he ranks sixth in strokes gained off the tee and 21st in fairways gained. The combination of those two stats could prove to be vital for a course that is going to require length and accuracy off of the tee.
We all know that Fleetwood can go low on any given round. He fired a 63 at Firestone last week, a 65 at the Open Championship at Carnoustie and a 63 at the U.S. Open held at Shinnecock Hills, which almost stole the tournament from Brooks Koepka out of nowhere. At this point, it all comes down to if the 27-year-old can stay focused for four rounds and doesn't find himself having a lapse of judgment to put himself out of contention. Fleetwood's 30/1 price has been steadily rising over the last couple of days, but I can't imagine we see too much higher of an increase in his number. However, until movement starts to come back the other way on him, I don't mind waiting to see if I can't steal a couple of extra points of value on his price. But even at 30/1, he might be the best value on the board of any player 30/1 or less.
Bryson DeChambeau (80/1, DK Price $7,900, FD Price $10,000)
Don't get used to this sort of number on Bryson DeChambeau. The 22nd-ranked golfer in the world has somehow turned into the forgotten about player from a betting standpoint. Maybe it is because of his handshake controversy at the Porsche European Open, or perhaps it has to do with his withdrawal at the John Deere Classic less than a month ago. But regardless of the reasoning, it has opened up a value-friendly betting spot for the American.
DeChambeau is coming off of a 30th place finish at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational but closed the tournament in fine form. He shot an opening round 75 but proceeded to shoot rounds of 69,68 and 67, respectively. Bellerive is going to be a new test for pretty much all players playing it this week, and let's face it, DeChambeau's intelligence is going to put him in a position to prevail over other players in the field. It doesn't mean there isn't a grip it and rip it type of approach that may succeed but if there is an optimal way to play the course, I expect DeChambeau to be able to figure it out. The 24-year-old ranks first in proximity over 200 yards and seventh in strokes gained on par-fours in his last 24 rounds compared to the field. DeChambeau comes in as the 24th highest priced played on DraftKings, 22nd on Fanduel and a whopping 32nd in the betting market.
Keegan Bradley (110/1, DK Price $7,500, FD Price $9,200)
Full disclosure, I have never bet Keegan Bradley in a tournament before, so maybe I am naive to the effects of what happens to your health when you place money on the 32-year-old, but if I am taking someone at odds over 100/1, I don't mind the volatility that they may possess.
Bradley was the 2011 PGA Championship winner and third-place finisher in 2012. Sure, that must now feel like lightyears ago for the American, but I think from a statistical standpoint there's a lot to like about Bradley this week. He comes into the PGA Championship having made four consecutive cuts in a row, which includes a fourth-place showing during his last outing at the RBC Canadian Open. Bradley has also made 16 of 18 cuts on the season. The anchoring ban that was put into place a few years ago has probably hurt Bradley more than any other player on tour. He is currently ranked 191st on the season in strokes gained-putting, but bentgrass has historically been one of his better surfaces.
Since Bellerive is such an unknown and the only things we can safely say is that the course is long, it is a Par 70 and it has bentgrass greens, I decided to run a random stat-model that incorporated those things. I looked at the last 50 rounds played for each player on a Par 70 course that played over 7200 yards with bentgrass greens and was somewhat surprised by some of the results. Bradley didn't have enough rounds to qualify for a full 50 breakdown, but in his last 42 rounds compared to the field, he ranked second in par-four scoring, fourth in fairways gained, fourth in proximity from 175-200 yards, fifth in proximity over 200 yards, fifth in strokes gained off the tee, seventh in driving distance and a surprising 12th in strokes gained-putting. Bradley is going to be a volatile option across the board, but at odds of 110/1 or a price tag on DraftKings of $7,500, I don't mind taking a shot that the former winner of the Wanamaker trophy strikes lighting in the bottle again.
Bonus Bomb
Russell Henley (150/1, DK Price $6,700, FD Price $8,800)
This selection came down to either Gary Woodland or Russell Henley, and I decided to go with the latter. In my opinion, Henley makes for an exciting play at 150/1 this week. He has provided two top-25 finishes in his last three PGA Championship appearances and might be ideally suited for Bellerive Country Club.
If we are putting a premium on accuracy off of the tee, that is where the American shines. I tried to look for a condensed sample size so I could find players in the best form entering the event at this range, and Henley stuck out like a sore thumb across the board. In his last eight rounds compared to the field, the 29-year old ranked third in fairways gained, 11th in strokes gained-putting, 11th in sand saves, 18th in strokes gained off of the tee and 23rd in strokes gained approach. At only $6,700 on DraftKings, Henley very well may end up becoming the highest owned player under $7,000. That I don't love from a GPP standpoint, but I would still recommend playing the players you like. There will always be enough spots available to differentiate yourself from the field. Henley is the 85th most expensive player on DraftKings and 54th in the betting market.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Jon Rahm+101 over Tiger Woods -114
Jon Rahm $9,100 price tag on DraftKings vs. Tiger Woods $9,900 price tag
Jon Rahm 10.5 percent projected ownership vs. Tiger Woods 5.2 percent projected ownership
Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka were the two players I heavily considered for the outright betting card, but both ended up narrowly missing for one reason or another. Rahm exhibits more volatility than I usually care for with my head-to-head picks, but I am happy to pounce on a plus number against a struggling Tiger Woods.
To me, Woods didn't look right at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Weekend rounds of 73 on each day and wayward drives and approaches are one thing, but Woods looked far less than limber on Saturday and Sunday. I am not saying there is something physically wrong with him necessarily, and I don't think he would tee it up if there was but the 42-year-old has gone from zero to 100 almost overnight with the amount of golf he has been playing. Woods originally was supposed to have a limited schedule and that all of a sudden has turned into eight tournaments in the last 14 weeks and now three of the past four.
Rahm, on the other hand, has been awful in his last two major championship events. But his missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Open Championship are why we can grab such a good number on him here at the PGA Championship. I am not sure if it will be this weekend, but I have always felt like Rahm's best chance to capture his first major would be at a PGA Championship venue. It is still up in the air if Bellerive will reward length off the tee, but if it does, Rahm has to be considered one of the favorites to capture the Wanamaker trophy. He ranks seventh in strokes gained off the tee, 10th in par-four scoring and 15th in driving distance compared to the field in the last 24 rounds. The thing with Rahm is that he is one of the only players on tour to primarily hit driver off the tee for every shot. This leads to volatility and is why I was mentioned that the 23-year-old isn't one of my prototypical head-to-head targets weekly, but I do think there is enough value being offered by the sportsbooks to deal with some of Rahm's shenanigans.
If Rahm can get himself into contention and Woods either doesn't make the cut or is out of the running against the Spaniard, we are presented a unique opportunity where we could roll over some of the winnings onto Rahm mid-tourney also. These are secondary situations, but it could offer us another bet in-game.
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