Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 18

July 28, 2018

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 18. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.

In a relatively active week on the MLB trade market, we now have several impactful moves to digest from a fantasy standpoint. While real-life GMs always assume trades will work in their team's benefit, the reality is that not all players are able to adapt to their new team in a positive way. With more deals to come and fantasy trade deadlines looming, it's time to take some risks and project values of newly dealt stars.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.

Undervalued Players - Week 18

Travis Shaw (3B, MIL) 

This may or may not hold true in your particular league, but the addition of Mike Moustakas could provoke an immediate gut reaction of panic in Shaw owners. Are the Brewers disappointed by his .246 average and worried about another second-half collapse like he suffered each of the last two seasons? Not at all. This deal was a response to the disappointing numbers put up by Jonathan Villar. Shaw isn't going to enter a platoon or ride the bench from here on out. In fact, his value goes up as he will gain second base eligibility soon. Having Moose in the lineup just makes this team more formidable and offers more RBI opportunities for Shaw, assuming Moustakas slots fourth or fifth in the lineup, with Shaw right behind him. He may not start more than five games a week, but Shaw has enough power to be a valuable piece even in weekly leagues and could see his price go down as a result of today's news.

Eduardo Escobar (2B/3B/SS, ARI) 82% owned

The snakes are betting on Escobar's remarkable career trajectory continuing upward, along with his ever-rising launch angle. Escobar has jacked 36 home runs since the start of the 2017 season, compared to 27 over the previous five seasons. A move to Arizona isn't as enticing as it was pre-humidor, but it won't hurt either. Chase Field ranked fourth in HR Park Factor last season, but is down to 18th this season, barely edging out Target Field. Even if his home field isn't necessarily better, his supporting cast will be. While it may appear he's been brought in to play a super-utility role, he could inherit the third base job for a while with Jake Lamb back on the DL. This situation evokes memories of another Eduardo, as he could serve a similar role on this team as Eduardo Nunez did for Boston last year. The stolen base upside isn't there, but Escobar could be more valuable than expected. Owners disappointed by his move to the desert could give him at a discounted price.

Lourdes Gurriel (2B/SS/OF, TOR) 25% owned

I was bullish on Gurriel from the start (a bit too early as it turned out) and now he's delivering as expected after a temporary stay in the minors. Gurriel is still riding a hit streak of nine consecutive games with multiple hits, including a 3-for-5 night with two homers on Friday. If the thought of a younger, more athletic version of Yuli Gurriel that now qualifies at both middle infield positions and outfield doesn't get you excited, then I don't know what will. He's batting .410 over the past month and has proven that taking a walk is way overrated in today's game, at least from a fantasy standpoint. He should be added in most mixed leagues that utilize an MI spot but is a flat-out must-own in dynasty leagues.

Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN) 42% owned

Possibly the next Twins player to leave town, Gibson could gain a much better chance to earn wins if he joins a team with playoff aspirations. Even if he stays, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world; he's found himself in Minnesota and pitches in a park that is in the lower half of Park Factors for runs and homers. Gibson sports a respectable 3.86 xFIP and has increased his K/9 by about two compared to previous norms, up to 8.79. While his velocity is far from elite, Gibson has seen increased speeds across all pitch types for two straight seasons and not surprisingly his swinging strike rate has followed suit. Gibson isn't going to lead your squad to a championship on his own, but he could be a solid end-of-rotation arm picked up off waivers or bought in exchange for a flash in the pan rookie like Shane Bieber or Dereck Rodriguez.

Overvalued Players - Week 18

Adrian Beltre (3B, TEX) 75% owned

The vet is unlikely to change clubhouses this week, so we can expect much of the same production over the second half. That's assuming he stays healthy, naturally. Beltre has been fine this season, but that's the problem. Fine doesn't win championships. Beltre is slashing .288/.340/.405, which is certainly strong, but five HR and 32 RBI in 257 at-bats aren't going to cut it at a corner position. In some cases, an 8.1% HR/FB rate that is almost half the previous year's rate would be cause for optimism, but not for a 39-year-old who has battled injuries all season. In deeper leagues, you're better off with a player like Miguel Andujar or Ryon Healy.

Freddy Peralta (SP, MIL) 54% owned

If you're a rookie pitcher, you struggle with consistency. It's what you do. Geico references aside, it is obvious Peralta wasn't going to dominate all year long. He was rocked for seven ER by the Nationals in his last outing, but that could be easily dismissed as just a bad day at the office. Looking further back, his walks are trending the wrong way since July began. Since his consecutive dominant performances against the Pirates and Royals where he combined for 17 K to just one walk, he's since struck out 22 batters but walked 13 in four starts. Peralta has benefited from an easy schedule for the most part, but things will get a bit tougher down the stretch as the NL Central has proven to be one of the most competitive in all of baseball. He could still spin some gems, but may also mix in some clunkers. Those in roto leagues fighting for a #1 finish might not want to risk the blow to their ratios.

J.A. Happ (SP, NYY) 83% owned

Joining the Yankees seems like a win-win for club and player, but not all players thrive in the Big Apple. Happ has been solid since joining the Jays in 2012, but had already been slowing down, pitching to a 7.41 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the past month. He's posting a career-best 27.4% K% but much of that success came in the first month of the season when he whiffed 50 batters in 36 innings. Since then, he's averaging just about one K per IP. If he can't keep up his supremely low 67% LOB% or lower his home run rate, there could be troubling times in Yankee Stadium. The one area he's struggled with most this season has been the long ball, as he's allowing a career-high 1.34 HR/9. Plenty of pitchers have failed to thrive in pinstripes (see Gray, Sonny circa 2018) and Happ could be next.

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