X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - Pitching Under Pressure (Week 14)

By User chris.ptacek on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "[1]") [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Statcast risers and fallers for week 14 at the SP position according to Slugging Percentage with Runners In Scoring Position. Andrew Le looks at starting pitchers who could be buys or sells according to sabermetrics.

Welcome back to RotoBaller's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

As a prerequisite before we start, follow this link and rock out as we delve into this week's topic. Readers may have noticed that our series focuses often on cringeworthy pitching events that make us fantasy viewers immediately regret tuning in to watch our starters and streamers. There's nothing worse than settling in with a cold beverage and having your pitcher promptly implode. For Week 14, the instances we'll discuss are meltdowns in pressure conditions.

The criteria for the analysis is simple: we'll examine opponent slugging percentage for pitchers with runners in scoring position. Overall, the median opponent slugging is .404. Surprisingly, that figure stays remarkably static in RISP situations (.405). We'll identify some starters with ice in their veins, and others that seemingly cave. At the least, our findings should make the baseball viewing experience a bit less insufferable.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bound to Pop

All stats as of July 2 for 122 pitchers with over 1,000 pitches. Pressure situations represent plate appearances with runners in scoring position (RISP).

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (5-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.13 K/9)

CC Sabathia is about average with a .394 opponent slugging percentage this season. But when runs are on the line, the savvy vet tightens up to .257, 13th-best in the majors. Sabathia's taken his smoke and mirrors show to the next level this season, on pace for his best year since 2011.

Sabathia's 2011 campaign (19-8, 3.00 ERA) was accompanied by a 95 MPH heater that he threw almost 50% of pitches. The reincarnated Sabathia in 2018 ditched his deteriorating four-seamer years ago in exchange for a cutter and complementary breaking pitches. The cutter's been a game-changer this season. In June, its mix has jumped to 44% with the whiff percentage doubling to 14%. The tangential benefits? He's getting more swings-and-misses on his pedestrian slider with opponent ISO and slugging tapering overall. Sabathia's SwStr% of 10.6% is a four-year best, certainly helpful in sticky situations.

A peek at Sabathia's peripherals are reassuring. Luck-related items like BABIP (.285) and LOB% (75.8%) are nonfactors. Batted-ball characteristics are stable and a workable 2.27 BB/9 prevents unintended damage. Haters can harp on his low HR/FB (10.4%) or FIP (4.06) to claim fraud, but our argument claims Sabathia is successfully managing his diminishing stuff. Reliable old Dub could be the formula for a strong fantasy second half.

Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers (6-3, 3.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.05 K/9)

When Jhoulys Chacin signed with Milwaukee this season after a rebound year in San Diego, the risk was he duped the Brew Crew, following the footsteps of other Padres alumni that leveraged Petco Park for hefty pay raises (see: Drew Pomeranz, Ian Kennedy). To the contrary. Chacin is enjoying another solid season, helped by the league's 18th-lowest .272 RISP slugging.

Chacin has endured some blowup games this season, but he's been fairly consistent, allowing two earned runs or less in 11-of-18 starts. Chacin has always had a great slider, but beginning last season, he stopped fooling around with other ineffective pitches and leaned on the good stuff. Since 2016, his slider usage has spiked from 21% to 39%. With a normalized pitch value of 2.10, the higher share hasn't reduced its potency. In June, hitters are batting .167 with a .208 slugging percentage against the pitch.

Chacin's success admittedly comes with some hairs. His strikeouts aren't stellar and an unsavory 3.99 BB/9 further stresses the importance of stranding runners. A modest .123 ISO and 6.8% HR/FB doesn't mesh with a 38.5% Hard%, but at least his exit velocity data isn't alarming (92.8 MPH FB/LD). Chacin's paid dividends for fantasy owners who've gambled thus far, if the money slider obliges, the good times can keep rolling.

Other possible risers: Tyler Mahle (CIN, .208 RISP slugging), Kyle Freeland (COL, .254), Jack Flaherty (STL, .257)

 

Due to Drop

David Price, Boston Red Sox (9-6, 4.28 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.57 K/9)

Recency bias and conventional wisdom suggests David Price's dead last position in RISP slugging (.721) is due to his latest meltdown in Yankee Stadium (3.1 IP, 8 ER). Not the case. Prior to the nightmare outing, Price's RISP slugging was already a putrid .667.

Despite badly struggling with runners on base, it's tough to complain about Price's season. After a horrible start, he had gone nine straight appearances allowing three or fewer runs before the Bronx debacle on July 1. The problem for Price could be his predictability. He's lost velocity on all of his pitches year-over-year and his sinker grades as his only useful pitch. As a result, Price's SwStr% (8.6%) and Swing% (46.3%) have plummeted while the contact rate has soared (81.5%). Price's 61.1% first pitch strikes and 3.07 BB/9 are far poorer than career norms, exacerbating his struggles in the stretch.

While there are no outliers to Price's performance to-date, there's also no clear indicator justifying why he's a top-50 starter going forward. His pedigree and wins will keep the ownership tag high, but his fantasy-relevant metrics are trending in the wrong direction. For Price owners, testing the trade market could provide opportunity to unload a potential burden.

Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels (4-5, 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.34 K/9)

Amidst a breakout year, a blemish on Andrew Heaney's season has been his ninth-worst .533 RISP slugging. Heaney's fired quality starts in 8-of-14 outings, but his performance volatility could attest to his inability to strand runners. When he's off, the floodgates burst open with four starts allowing five or more earned runs.

Heaney is another peculiar pitcher that doesn't use a traditional four-seamer (Sabathia, Alex Wood, Zack Godley), instead relying on a sinker, curve and changeup. His knockout curveball generated a whiff rate of almost 20% and .094 batting average in June. One possible concern is a shift away from an unproductive changeup (.857 opponent SLG in June), essentially making him a two-pitch pony. The sinker, his worst pitch, is up to a 60% mix and its growing share has triggered a collapse in whiff rate from 14% to 7%. While the change in pitch selection hasn't directly impacted his curveball, the limited options are a risk.

Heaney's been a valuable waiver wire find, but nothing suggests he's destined for the next level. He's not a swing-and-miss pitcher (10.9% SwStr%, 46.5% Swing%) and his stuff isn't overpowering. Owners believing the 69.6% LOB% is bad luck should recognize it's mostly self-inflicted. Heaney beneficiaries should enjoy the ride, but overpaying for perceived upside could be a fool's errand.

Other possible fallers: Tyson Ross (SD, .523 RISP slugging), Michael Fulmer (DET, .514), Nick Pivetta (PHI, .507)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Charlie Morton55 mins ago

Strikes Out 10 In Loss
J.T. Realmuto1 hour ago

Collects Three Hits
Nikola Jokić1 hour ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Hunter Brown1 hour ago

Registers Eight Strikeouts
Jonathan Kuminga1 hour ago

Back On Thursday Night
Christian Walker1 hour ago

Mashes Homer In Win
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Heading To Injured List
Miles Boykin3 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson3 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield3 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum4 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George4 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes4 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton4 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell4 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole5 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes5 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins5 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin5 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey5 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev5 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun5 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker5 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck5 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä5 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman5 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther5 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco5 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair5 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez5 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo6 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk6 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu6 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams6 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley6 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride6 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith7 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero7 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario7 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac7 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao7 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells8 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt8 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida8 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
8 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys8 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants8 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders9 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs10 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints10 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III12 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons13 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson13 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes14 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley14 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl14 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard14 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James14 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann16 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake16 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin16 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov16 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe16 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin16 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers24 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
1 day ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole3 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]