January 28, 2018

An in-depth preview of 2018 NFL Draft rookies for the running back position (part two). Matt Wispe's top RBs for fantasy football dynasty league rookie drafts.

In Part One for RBs, I highlighted six running backs (actually seven, but Bryce Love decided to pull a surprise return to school) who have the potential to be drafted highly in the upcoming NFL Draft, but my general takeaway from this class is the depth. This class goes about 16 to 20 deep with players who could impact an NFL roster and while there's some outstanding talent at the top, the drop-off to RB10 is less than most years. To address some of the feedback that I received after Part One, I put a decent amount of emphasis on athleticism for RBs, because of a study that I've found helpful for RB analysis by Kevin Cole showing which combine drills have the most meaning for the scouting process and his regression tree.

The takeaway from this shouldn't be that faster or generally more athletic players are more successful, but certain levels of athleticism point towards success (i.e. a player who runs a 4.3 isn't positioned significantly better than a player who runs a 4.45, but a player who runs a 4.6 is starting at a disadvantage).

Rashaad Penny, San Diego St.

Rashaad Penny is one of the most underrated prospects in the class and he largely proved it with his production during his 2017 campaign.

Despite being a relative unknown to the general public, Penny led the nation in rushing yards did so with similar levels of efficiency to the premier prospects in the class. His 23 rushing TDs ranked second in the nation which accounted for 55 percent of his team's total offensive TDs. Additionally, his 2383 total offensive yards accounted for 46 percent of his team's total. And to top it all off, Penny returned 81 kicks for 7 TDs and an average of 30.2 yards. His production indicates that he has a chance to be a true workhorse.

Because of his slightly lower level of competition, there will be questions about whether he can hold up to the NFL workload. For this reason, his combine will be important for demonstrating that he is on par with the other RBs in the class, athletically, and that he has the necessary size to be an NFL player. As it stands, most outlets have Penny outside of the top two rounds, but he is a popular choice to be the Kareem Hunt for 2018. He'll likely be a first round pick in rookie drafts in the seven to 10 range.

Royce Freeman, Oregon

Freeman is the evidence of how being productive for years can often be overlooked. Freeman is only one of three players to have over 900 rushing attempts, over 5500 yards, and, at least 60 TDs.

For Freeman, the biggest positives are his usage and his two seasons with at least six yards per carry. He had two seasons with at least receptions per game and three seasons over 200 carries. While there's always questions about whether a player can make the leap in physicality between college football and the NFL, his heavy workload is as much proof as you can get. If he can test well, his stock should steadily rise.

Freeman isn't likely to be drafted inside of the first two rounds of the draft, but should have immediate fantasy value if he lands with the right team. His value will likely be towards the end of the first round and into the early second, but drafters shouldn't be afraid to reach if he has a chance to play immediately.

Kalen Ballage, Arizona St.

Ballage is a prospect who will likely need to turn heads at the combine in order to make up for his production, but many believe that he'll do just that.

Ballage never had more than 200 carries or eclipsed 700 rushing yards and despite being a gifted athlete, his rushing efficiency fails raise his profile. But he does have intriguing usage in the passing game with an emphasis on his 2016 season. Averaging more than three receptions per game, he averaged more than ten yards per catch. Ballage's use in the kick return game only furthers the speculation about his athletic prowess. He returned 47 career kicks for a 22.5 yard average.

It's clear that production won't be the selling point for this prospect, but his athleticism is the key for most scouts. Ballage played multiple positions at the high school level and was recruited as a four-star athlete. At 230 pounds, he projected to run his forty between 4.45 and 4.56 seconds. If he can run a sub-4.5 second forty, his stock could rise to a late day two prospect. If Ballage performs as expected at the combine, his rookie draft stock will inevitably rise. He should be drafted in the second round of rookie drafts, but his range could jump as high as the tenth pick.

John Kelly, Tennesee

Amidst the terribleness that was the Tennessee season, John Kelly was one of the bright spots. While it's clear that the team's overall ineptitude hindered him, he produced well.

At first glance, Kelly's numbers appear relatively unspectacular, but it's the final season receptions and his market shares that stand out. Kelly averaged more than three receptions per game during his final year. While you'd prefer a player to receive passes throughout his career, this usage provides enough clarity that he's a capable receiving back. And while 778 yards isn't overly impressive, it represented 55 percent of the team's total and his nine TDs were 36 percent of the total offense.

Kelly was a surprise early entrant into the draft which is shown in most projections of his current draft stock. While he's currently projected as a day three pick, that could change with a strong combine. Kelly projects as a mid-to-late second round rookie pick who will likely sit early in his NFL career.

Akrum Wadley, Iowa

Wadley might be the most well-rounded player that no one is talking about. And whether that's a criticism of his talent or his team, Wadley has produced with a relatively large opportunity.

Wadley wasn't given 200 carries until his final season, but he put together back-to-back 1000 yard seasons and contributed in the passing game for consecutive years. Wadley's best season was arguably 2016 when he averaged more than 6 yards per carry, eclipsed 1000 yards on 168 carries, and averaged almost three receptions per game. And while his efficiency regressed in 2017, he still averaged more than two receptions per game and score 13 total TDs.

Wadley just appears to be the prospect that no one is excited about. He would benefit greatly with a strong draft process and a particularly strong combine. He'll likely end up an early day three selection without it. If that holds true, Wadley should be a third round rookie draft pick with some upside.

Mark Walton, Miami

Walton was arguably Miami's best offensive player before he went down with an injury.

Walton's 2016 was almost everything you'd look for in a prospect. He had over 200 carries, more than two receptions per game, and 15 touchdowns. While his efficiency was below the ideal 6.0 yards per carry, he improved it to over 7 in a small sample during 2017. Walton also returned kicks during his first season and average over 17 yards per return on 17 attempts.

Walton's injury will inevitably cause him to fall in the draft and it's unlikely that he'll be healthy enough to workout prior to the draft so his evaluation is somewhat incomplete. Based on his similar usage, you'd hope that he can be a slightly bigger Chris Thompson, but that's clearly his ideal scenario. He'll likely be a day three selection and subsequently a third round pick in rookie drafts.

Josh Adams, Notre Dame

At times this season, Adams looks like the best player on an offense built to run the ball and while things tailed off towards the end of the year, he still appears to be a quality NFL prospect.

Adams broke out during his first year with relatively limited usage, but it's his final season that stands out. His 1430 yards ranked 14th in the country and his 1531 yards represented 26 percent of Notre Dame's total offensive yardage. His 21 receptions during 2016 also provide optimism for his ability to produce in the passing game.

Adams will need to have a successful combine to elevate himself to a day two pick. If he ends up as a second or third round pick, he should have an opportunity to see the field. Adams projects as a mid-to-late second round rookie pick with the high variability of his draft stock. If he's in the top 8 RBs selected, that could increase to the first half of the second.

Phillip Lindsay, Colorado

Lindsay may be a small prospect, but he handled a heavy workload during his final season.

Lindsay had back-to-back seasons with over 200 rushing attempts, 1200 yards, and 14 TDs. His 117 career receptions represent more than two per game. He lacked high level efficiency you'd want from a top prospect, but he 34 percent of the team's total yards and  42 percent of the team's TDs. There's no question that Lindsay showed he's capable of handling his team's full workload, but whether or not that translates to an NFL team giving him a chance is still up in the air.

Being a smaller RB, Lindsay will need to have a strong combine to make team's overlook his size. He's projected to run his forty in the mid-4.4s and with good performances in the agility drills, a team could take a chance on him as a change-of-pace back earlier than expected. He's currently expected to be a late day three selection and, because of that, he's probably a fourth round rookie pick.

Ito Smith, Southern Mississippi

Smith is a small school prospect with big production. With a strong draft process, he could raise his draft stock and earn an opportunity to make an impact.

Smith's three consecutive 1000 yard seasons and back-to-back 200+ carry seasons would be enough to cement him as a highly productive prospect, but what's turning Smith into a popular late-round sleeper is his work in the passing game. Three consecutive seasons with more than three receptions per game is on par with nearly everyone in the class.

With a strong draft process, Smith could be drafted in round four or five. With a poor draft process, he could get overlooked entirely so every opportunity is crucial. He's projected to run a forty around 4.5 seconds and any improvement will go a long way to solidify him as a draftable prospect. He currently appears to be a fourth round rookie pick.

Bo Scarborough, Alabama

Scarborough was arguably the third best RB on his own team, but his size will undoubtedly cause scouts to salivate if he can pair it with a high level of athleticism.

Scarborough would have benefited leaving last year. He was efficient on limited usage had big moments on a national stage during the college football playoff. In 2017, however, he failed to take over the lead role and improve his usage in the running game. He did increase his receptions to just over one per game which gives some hope, but his season largely appears to be a disappointment.

Scarborough ran a 4.59 second forty during the high school combine. At face value, that doesn't standout, but if he runs that time now with an additional 20 pounds, it will be on of the faster speed scores in recent years. I don't expect that he'll still run that time, but if he can come close, a team will take a chance on the former five-star high school prospect.

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