🖥 CYBER MONDAY - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE CYBER
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers and Fallers for Week 8: Buy or Sell?

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some fantasy baseball bats for week eight that approach the end of May either extremely hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. We're nearing the two-month mark on the 2017 season and it's safe to say that sanity is nowhere in sight. Let's see if we still can't give some context to some surging bats with regards to power using our trusty little RotoBaller premium toolbox.

For reference, here's a tasty little screencap of the premium power tool that much of the inspiration for this article comes from. It pulls the fly-ball, pull and hard-hit rates for players -- metrics associated with power -- and looks at notable recent swings in performance.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Power Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a free sample:

 

Power Risers

Justin Bour - (1B, MIA):

Bour owns a ridiculous .535 ISO over the last two weeks with eight homers over his last 12 starts, so yeah, we’re going to have to speak on this. And he hasn’t just been hitting long balls, going 19-for-46 (.413) overall with a ridiculous 60 percent hard-hit rate and identical pull rate while hitting the ball into the air at a 40-percent clip.

The 28-year-old has 12 homers overall in just 175 plate appearances after leaving the yard 15 times in 321 PAs last season, though his current 32.4 percent HR/FB rate will tumble toward 20 percent. However, the biggest part of this is that he’s gone 10-for-33 with his first three career homers against southpaws in 2017. He had hit just .223 over his first 103 at-bats vs. LHP, so this improvement should lead to true full-time play and 30-homer potential.

Michael Conforto - (OF, NYM): 

While Conforto had an ugly four-strikeout game the day of my writing this, his prior six games had yielded two doubles, four homers, 10 runs scored and eight RBI alongside an insane .476 average. He only hit five fly balls in total, but four of them left the park thanks to a 71.4 percent hard-hit rate in those games.

10 of his last 12 batted balls checked in at 97-plus mph, with only one of those carrying a negative launch angle. Even including the previous week for a two-week window, he has a robust 65.5 percent hard-hit rate and a paltry 6.9 percent soft-contact rate alongside a 48.3 percent fly-ball rate. Hopefully, the return of Yoenis Cespedes doesn’t dig into Conforto’s breakout. It shouldn’t, but my trust in Terry Collins is nil.

Alex Bregman - (3B, HOU):

While it hasn’t been the flashiest showing, Bregman’s first three homers of the season have come over his last 10 starts. The sophomore has posted a solid 34.5 percent hard-hit rate (30.9 percent otherwise), but the 44.8 percent fly-ball rate (33.3 percent) and 55.2 percent pull rate (34 percent) illustrate a change in approach. What was really terrible was his 21.9 percent infield-fly rate, which has been cut to 7.7 percent in his last two weeks.

Now, the caveat with his three homers is that one of them went 348 feet while another went 349 feet. He does have a 402-foot field out to his name as well, but honestly, this is more about making sure people aren’t getting too excited about the recent “homer” surge. The signs are there

Mike Napoli - (1B, TEX):

Napoli’s 19 barrels are tied for the seventh most in the MLB, which has translated to 11 homers overall and six long balls (though just 11 RBI) over his last two weeks. His fly-ball and pull rate both sit at 55.6 percent in that span, with an impressive 48.2 percent hard-hit rate making those pulled flies useful. He's 12-for-41 (.324) in that two-week window, so half of those hits have migrated to Souvenir City and 16 of his 29 outs have come via strikeout. Napoli isn't new to the "swing for the fences" approach -- he hit 34 homers with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate in 2016 -- but his soft-contact rate has risen by five percent compared to last season. Again, it won't matter much as long as his loud contact is counting for something, but it does explain some of his atrocious .212 BABIP (.296 in '16) and subsequent .193 batting average. That's difficult to stomach even if you reach the 35-homer, 100-RBI plateau.

 

Power Fallers

Carlos Correa - (SS, HOU):

Correa just returned from a brief illness and homered, so that kind of takes away from the message at-large here. That said, I'm stubborn and already penciled him into the lineup, and also it doesn’t change that he had smacked only one ball over 350 feet over the past two weeks before Thursday night. There’s no skirting that judging 40 plate appearances is harsh, but an 18.2 percent hard-hit rate is going to give you troubles when courting the home run. That and half of the balls he hit were grounders. And he only pulled 13.6 percent of them. I highly doubt anyone would "sell low" on him, but there might be some people selling him off for 90 cents on the dollar given the ebbs and flows with power and the fact that he hasn't attempted a steal yet (it isn't all about power, after all).

Dustin Pedroia - (2B, BOS):

Pedroia lost his six-game hitting streak on Thursday and was removed for precautionary reasons with left knee soreness. The 33-year-old went from logging an extra-base hit in eight of nine games from May 4-13, but in 10 games since then he’s only mustered one (a double). He's still hit .293 since then so the average isn't ailing and he's only been rung up three times in the 41 at-bats since, but there's just no zing, no pep. It isn't as though he was drafted for homers, but the guy did hit 15 dingers last season and is currently rocking a 4.5 percent HR/FB rate that would be his worst since his first full season in 2007 (4.4 percent).

He's definitely earned the struggles, with just a quarter of his batted balls going in the air with a puny 8.3 percent hard-hit rate backing it. Throw in a 16.7 percent pull rate and you've got an ugly power picture. The interesting thing here is that you could easily say he's not a "faller", but rather has been down all season. He's one of seven players with at least 50 batted balls who have yet to register a "barrel" on a hit. If you can get something for him on name value alone, I'd go for it.

Marcell Ozuna - (OF, MIA):

Ozuna hasn’t gone yard since his two-homer game on May 8, with only three doubles in 14 games since then. Granted, he’s hit safely in nine of his last 11 games, but we want the powah! So since then, he’s put up a ghastly 56.4 percent ground-ball rate alongside a 30.8 percent hard-contact mark, which is below league-average. Oh.

In case you’re wondering, that’s not good when it comes to power. His hard-hit rate was 49.4 percent before the power outage hit, and while his primary outcome was still the grounder, they only came at a 44.9 percent clip. Mix in an 11-percent drop in his pull rate and viola, you’ve got a candidate for this article. While he should rebound from this slump, the fact that he hasn’t even hit a ball more than 285 feet in a week is alarming.

Giancarlo Stanton - (OF, MIA):

The outfield that slumps together, stays together? At least Bour's safe in the infield. Like his teammate Ozuna, Stanton also hasn’t been able to clear the fence since May 8, though he has six doubles since then so there’s that. While he’s still slapping the souls out of baseballs with his swing (six balls hit at 112 mph or greater in the past week), none of them have been at a launch angle greater than 15 degrees. That points to a poor 23.8 percent fly-ball rate since May 8 and explains the laser-beam doubles not turning into homers. This seems like a rather easy fix at first glance -- especially given his 22 percent strikeout rate since May 8 is below his season-long mark of 24.2 percent -- but being a bit on top of the ball certainly presents a legitimate hurdle no matter how you slice it.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Brandon Miller

Unavailable on Monday
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Duncan Robinson

Absent Against Atlanta
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Jalen Duren

Back in the Lineup on Monday Evening
Noah Clowney

Cleared to Play Versus Charlotte
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Active On Monday
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Back in Action on Monday
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Versus Pacers
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

Won't Play Versus Milwaukee
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Lonzo Ball

Ruled Out on Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Steven Adams

Out Against Jazz
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Darius Garland

Unavailable Monday
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Kristaps Porzingis

Out of Action Versus Pistons
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
Daniel Gafford

Sidelined Again on Monday
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Andre Drummond

Leaves Early, Status Now in Question
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Tre Mann

Uncertain for Monday's Game Against Nets
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deandre Ayton

Leaves Game With Knee Soreness
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Brandon Williams

Questionable With Adductor Issue
P.J. Washington

Uncertain For Monday's Contest
Daniel Gafford

Expected To Miss Second Straight Game
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
James Cook

Handles Career-High 32 Carries for 144 Yards in Win
Egor Demin

Available Against Hornets
Justin Herbert

Planning to Play Through Broken Bone in Left Hand in Week 14
Terance Mann

in Danger of Missing Monday's Game
Sauce Gardner

Likely to Miss a "Couple of Weeks" With Calf Strain
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
Stuart Skinner

Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP