April 7, 2017

Kevin McHugh analyzes offseason tight end movement in free agency and its fantasy implications for the 2017 NFL season.

There has been movement at the tight end position this offseason that could have serious fantasy implications for the 2017 season, as a few tight ends saw their stock increase based on their respective landing spots.

Expectations should always be tempered for tight ends, but the offseason movement has created some additional value picks at the position for 2017.

Here are five tight ends who could have vastly different outlooks in the coming football season.

Tight Ends Changing Teams in 2017

Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders

Jared Cook was, well, Jared Cook in 2016, although he did post the most productive season of his career on a per-game basis. Freed from the clutches of Jeff Fisher, Cook finally got a chance to play in a prolific NFL offense. However, Cook missed 6 games due to injury, was quite inconsistent from week to week, and received a paltry 10 red-zone targets with only one touchdown on the year.

Landing in Oakland, Jared Cook is an upgrade over Clive Walford and Mychal Rivera, but Derek Carr has favored his wide receivers and running backs over his tight ends in the passing game, and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case in 2017.  Carr only attempted 80 passes to his tight ends in 2016, and Cook has caught only 55% of his passes over the past two seasons.  Cook will likely be a TE2 and a bye-week streamer at best.

Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers

Exit Jared Cook, enter Martellus Bennett for the Packers, who was solid but unspectacular for the Patriots in 2016, as he had to compete with a number of options for targets in the New England passing game. Sharing the field with Rob Gronkowski for eight games didn’t help. However, Bennett was extremely efficient as a member of the Patriots, as he caught 75.3% of his 73 targets and recorded 397 yards after the catch. He was also third amongst tight ends with 7 touchdowns, although his week-to-week scoring output was maddeningly inconsistent, which is par for the course when it comes to tight ends.

Replacing Jared Cook in Green Bay seems like a lateral move in terms of offensive competence, but the reality is Martellus Bennett will be the unquestioned TE1 on his team and represents a serious upgrade for Aaron Rodgers. While Rodgers spread the ball around more than he ever had in 2016, each of his top-three wide receivers can be considered injury risks at this point, as Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb have played through or missed time due to injury over the course of the past few seasons, and they aren’t getting any younger. Luckily, Bennett should be able to pick up the slack, as he has been a solid option everywhere he’s been, and now he is tied to the best quarterback of his career relative to his expected target share.

Dwayne Allen, New England Patriots

Replacing Martellus Bennett as the number-two tight end in the Patriots offense, Dwayne Allen represents a significant downgrade. There isn’t much to like about Allen, as he has been completely touchdown-dependent over the course of his career. He has also been susceptible to nagging injuries here and there, and never seemed to emerge as the clear TE1 for Indianapolis.

The upside is that Rob Gronkowski has been the definition of injury-prone, and he doesn‘t seem to be changing his offseason habits anytime soon. The Patriots always seem to have a contingency plan in place for Gronk, and they weren’t about to give in to Martellus Bennett’s contract demands. If Dwayne Allen finds himself as the number one tight end in New England for a significant stretch, there is a chance he could have some value, but until then, leave him on the waiver wire. There are just not enough targets in New England to go around.

Dion Sims, Chicago Bears

Dion Sims was able to take over the starting job at tight end for the Dolphins halfway through the regular season. That’s about the most significant thing that happened with Sims in 2016. However, Sims was relatively efficient on a per-target basis, catching 74.3% of his targets without a drop, and at 6’5” and 262 lb., has the profile of a fine red-zone target, should a team decide to utilize him there.

Signing with the Bears, Dion Sims joins a group of interesting but largely unproven tight ends, as he will have to compete with Zach Miller and second-year sleeper Ben Braunecker for targets. If Sims can somehow finagle his way into a starting role, he could have some value, but wait and see who is getting the targets when the games begin, as he likely won’t be drafted in 10 or 12-team leagues.

Julius Thomas, Miami Dolphins

Julius Thomas, predictably, saw his value crash when he swapped Peyton Manning for Blake Bortles as his quarterback. Thomas was unable to stay healthy in Jacksonville, and on the few occasions where he was healthy, he was an afterthought in the passing game. It seemed as though the Jaguars, or Bortles at least, had no idea how to use him.

After being traded to Miami, Julius Thomas replaces Dion Sims as the top tight end for the Dolphins. He is now reunited with Adam Gase, his offensive coordinator in Denver. Please do not let that narrative fool you, as it will be pushed as a positive for Thomas during draft season. While Gase is an exceptional offensive mind, the reality is the Dolphins are a power running team, first and foremost. Their passing game will also prioritize Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills ahead of Thomas, and while Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade from Blake Bortles, he’s no Peyton Manning. Don’t expect much from Julius Thomas; he will most likely be a bye-week replacement or streamer at best in 2017.